543
FXUS64 KSHV 011159
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
659 AM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1144 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026

 - A chance of showers and thunderstorms are expected on Monday
   before increasing during the day Tuesday and into Tuesday
   evening, especially across Louisiana and East Texas south of
   Interstate 20.

 - Very warm temperatures are expected Monday and Tuesday. Most
   locations across the western half of the ArkLaTex have a medium
   chance (45 to 75 percent) of high temperatures above 95 degrees
   F during the daytime on Monday and Tuesday. A few locations
   have high chances (greater than 75 percent).

 - Somewhat cooler temperatures will return for the latter half of
   the week. More widespread chances for showers and thunderstorms
   return Friday and into next weekend, which should help keep
   temperatures in check.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1144 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026

Weak upper-level ridging will continue to keep much of the area
dry through the day on Monday with the exception of some diurnal
convection in our eastern zones. There could also be a greater
push of rain from the north during the evening and overnight
hours. Mid-range models are disagreeing on initiation of the
showers, but still end up with rain in parts of southern AR and
north central LA. Right now things don`t look like they will be
severe without the upper-level support, but urban and flood prone
areas could see some puddles. The ridge will also keep
temperatures in the 90s on Monday and Tuesday. With elevated dew
points, heat indices are likely to hit 100 during the afternoons. A
cold front is expected to backdoor into the region from the
northwest Tuesday afternoon and bring more widespread rain chances
to areas along and south of I-20. These scattered showers should
continue for much of the overnight hours and end before daybreak
Wednesday. Temperatures will be slightly cooler behind the front,
in the mid to upper 80s, from Wednesday through the rest of the
week.

The upper-level ridge that has been suppressing most of the rain
looks to weaken in the latter half of the week, shifting us
towards southwest flow. Long-range models are suggesting a
shortwave trough moving through the Southern Plains in the wake of
this shift, bringing some rain chances to the entire region on
Friday. The spatial extent could be overdone this far out, as is
common when confidence is low. Exact timing and locations should
be pinned down with future forecasts.

57

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 656 AM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

For the 01/12z TAF Period...Some patchy BR at KELD for the next
couple of hours. Otherwise, VFR conditions should prevail through
most of the TAF period. Short-term progs continue to suggest some
isolated convection will develop across NE Louisiana this
afternoon, so decided to add VCTS at KMLU. There is also some hint
of some additional convection moving into our SW Arkansas and
North Louisiana TAF sites after sunset, but confidence is too low
to include in TAFs at this time. /20/


&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 109 PM CDT Sat May 30 2026

Spotter activation is not expected through tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  94  75  93  71 /  10  20  20  20
MLU  93  74  90  70 /  20  30  20  10
DEQ  95  72  91  66 /   0  20  20  10
TXK  96  74  92  68 /  10  20  10   0
ELD  93  72  88  66 /  10  40  10   0
TYR  94  75  95  72 /   0  10  10  30
GGG  95  74  95  71 /  10  10  10  30
LFK  93  74  94  72 /  10  20  20  50

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&


$$

DISCUSSION...57
AVIATION...20