931
FXUS64 KSHV 311754
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1254 PM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1253 PM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026

 - Areas of light rainfall will continue pushing northeast across
   the ArkLaTex, tapering off overnight tonight from west to
   east, with dry and warmer conditions Sunday and Monday.

 - Rain will return late Monday, continuing through the day
   Tuesday. Periods of heavy rainfall may result in flash
   flooding development. A few rumbles of thunder are possible.

 - Behind the cold front, more seasonable temperatures will
   prevail through the end of the work week, with highs in the 70s
   and lows in the 40s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1253 PM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026

Scattered showers continue to trek from southwest to northeast
across the ArkLaTex this afternoon. Rain rates have been light to
moderate with limited accumulations of up to a few tenths of an inch
so far. As the grey, cloudy daytime fades to twilight on this All
Hallows Eve, this primary impulse of moisture is expected to be in
the process of departing to the northeast. As of this writing, there
is only isolated additional convection to our southwest preparing to
move into the region. However, the latest HRRR and NAM 3km both keep
conditions fairly rainy into the evening, which seems to be a result
of struggling to capture the timing of today`s moisture. That being
said, enough signals point to a push of additional showers across
our south and east into the evening to carry Chc PoPs overnight for
our easternmost zones. This trend looks reasonably favorable for our
trick-or-treaters to have the opportunity to get outside this
evening, though being prepared with an umbrella and ready to dodge
showers and drizzle would still be advisable.

The bulk of today`s rainfall will have exited the region overnight,
though a few lingering showers are possible Sunday morning across
our easternmost zones. As we turn back the clocks, temperatures will
drop into the middle 50s north to lower 60s south, quickly
rebounding into the lower 80s Sunday afternoon amidst drier
conditions and clearing skies under upper level ridging extending
from Texas over the Ouachitas and Ozarks before sweeping eastward
into Monday as our next weathermaker approaches.

The next chance of rain for the ArkLaTex looks on track to begin
Monday evening overnight into Tuesday. The longwave trough pushing
onshore this afternoon will advance eastwards over the next tow
days, deepening as it does so, with an axis extending from the
Canadian border down the Front Range to New Mexico. By Monday
evening, the leading edge of the trough will be pushing across
central Oklahoma and north Texas, where the best chance for severe
development exists, along the I-35 corridor. As has lately been the
story, confidence in storms remaining strong to severe eastward into
the ArkLaTex is not there at this time.

However, trends do look favorable for periods of heavy rainfall
leading to areas of flash flooding Monday night and through the day
Tuesday. While much-needed relief from the current drought would be
welcome, our prolonged dry conditions have resulted in very dry
soils which will struggle to absorb rainfall at first, increasing
the degree of initial runoff. Small streams and areas of poor
drainage may be vulnerable, with urban flash flooding also a
possibility.

Tuesday`s showers and storms will taper off overnight into Wednesday
morning. Long range synoptic scale guidance suggests a secondary low
will eject east across the Plains Thursday, which may kick up a few
additional showers, but PoPs remain low at this point. Otherwise,
dry conditions look to prevail through the end of the week ahead.
Behind the cold front, temperatures look to return to near-
seasonable values, with highs in the 70s and lows in the 40s through
the end of this extended forecast period.

/26/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1253 PM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026

SHRA is beginning to thin for much of East TX by the beginning of
this period. Cigs may lift a bit through the afternoon but expect
some level of cloud cover through the period. VCSH are still around
other sites at this hour and could continue into this evening. Site
cigs are largely improving from this morning`s minimums but
lingering rainfall will continue to bring visibility issues. The
returned moisture will work to bring low cigs back for most sites
overnight and into tomorrow morning, which look slow to lift as we
round out the period. Winds should stay light and generally easterly
for everyone. /57/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1253 PM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026

Spotter activation is not expected at this time. /26/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  64  81  65  81 /  20  10   0   0
MLU  63  79  64  81 /  50  20   0   0
DEQ  61  79  62  81 /  40  10   0  10
TXK  61  79  63  80 /  40  10   0   0
ELD  61  79  62  80 /  50  20   0   0
TYR  63  82  66  84 /  10  10   0   0
GGG  62  82  64  83 /  10  10   0   0
LFK  64  83  65  84 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&


$$

DISCUSSION...26
AVIATION...57