252
FXUS64 KSHV 020620
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1220 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1219 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

- The coldest air of the winter season for the Ark-La-Tex (so
  far) will occur in the next 12 hours.

- The next chance of rain occurs by late Wednesday.

- Dry, seasonable conditions return by this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1219 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

The mid-latitude longwave train continues apace with trough
arrival about every three days across the Four State Region. This
synoptic pattern will continue to favor shorter atmospheric
recovery times, limiting convection to marginally severe
thunderstorms at most and stratiform precipitation (in liquid
form) at a widespread minimum. The next rounds of precipitation
arriving Wednesday night into Friday night will carry the same
characteristics as frontal passage on Thursday and post-fronntal
isentropic upglide through Friday delivers the same milquetoast
convective variety we`ve come to expect in the past few weeks. WPC
QPF adds this all up to a northwest to southeast 0.01-1.25 inch
rainfall gradient over the next 7 days. Temperatures will respond
in kind with maximums and minimums moderated below normal under
precipitation by the end of the week, and back to near-normal
(maximums in the 60s, minimums in the 40s) when the precipitation
is not falling and clouds are thinner. /16/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1210 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

For the 02/06 TAF period...Most of the rain has moved out of the
region, but low cigs still remain. However, we should start to
see some clearing and VFR conditions overnight at KTYR/KGGG, then
eventually at KTXK/KSHV/KLFK by tomorrow morning. There is even
some hint that clouds could start to clear at KMLU/KELD by the
end of the period. /20/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1156 AM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  50  34  59  45 /   0   0   0  60
MLU  46  28  55  43 /   0   0   0  70
DEQ  46  25  55  35 /   0   0   0  10
TXK  47  31  57  41 /   0   0   0  30
ELD  43  25  53  37 /   0   0   0  50
TYR  49  35  60  44 /   0   0   0  40
GGG  50  32  60  43 /   0   0   0  50
LFK  53  33  62  47 /   0   0  10  80

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&


$$

DISCUSSION...16
AVIATION...20