559
FXUS64 KSHV 140231
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
931 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 918 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

Current temperatures are very nice behind a gusty late day sea
breeze push, which is almost to Texarkana, where it is still a
warm 83 degrees. Everywhere else is upper 70s north, but we have
mid 70s along I-20 and several lower 70s already well to the
south. In fact, Lufkin was already a degree cooler than our
previous forecast low. So we lowered there a couple and a few
other mid 70s have been bumped down into the lower 70s category.
Sky is looking good and we still have a chance for some convective
arrivals around predawn through mid morning. The SPC maintains
there Marginal Risk across our northern tier of Counties, as
storms string together over E OK/W & central AR. Light NW flow
under the upper low will propagate this activity southward as the
cool pool builds overnight behind continued development. The only
other change is too expand southward the predawn to mid morning
PoPs/WX grid. Zones updated and new graphics with these minor
changes are in the works. /24/

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday Night)
Issued at 128 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

The slow-moving cyclone that has brought a continuous stream of
rainfall to the Ark-La-Tx has meandered off toward the NE CONUS.
This will limit any additional rainfall for this period to any pop
up showers and thunderstorms that develop due to daytime heating.
Some of these storms can be seen in parts of our south and
eastern zones in recent radar imagery. Despite the comparative
lack of continued rainfall expected, southerly flow at the surface
will provide ample heat and moisture to the region. As such, our
typical muggy summer has returned to the forecast.

Temperatures tonight will begin to reflect this trend, with
overnight lows expected to be in the upper 60s to mid 70s.
Conditions on Saturday will be similar, with afternoon showers
possible and highs in the upper 80s and low 90s. The additional
heat will continue into the temperatures tomorrow night being
solidly in the 70s. /57/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 128 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

A well-defined zone of high pressure will build in across the
Desert Southwest as their Monsoon Season officially begins on
Sunday. This region of high pressure will help prevent large
troughs from sweeping through and bringing additional swaths of
rainfall to the Four State region. With this risk lower over this
forecast period, soils will have a chance to recover from all the
recent rain, resulting in a lower risk of flash flooding. This is
reflected in the Day 4 ERO from WPC, which has our region exiting
the 5% risk of flash flooding potential by Monday. The typical
summer pop up thunderstorms will still be possible during the
afternoon hours.

In addition to staying mostly dry, the trend of increasing
moisture and heat will continue through the long term. Afternoon
highs in the 90s and overnight lows in the 70s will persist
through the end of next week. /57/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 642 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

For the ArkLaTex terminals, VFR overnight with MVFR cigs likely
by 12Z at several sites. Some late morning vicinity showers will
bloom into some diurnal aftn thunderstorms with scattered coverage
in hit or miss fashion. Late day Sea breeze push eventually meets
up with convection associated with an upper low in light NW flow
arriving late day for our I-30 corridor, just as the sea breeze
activity slowly wanes. This new energy may later affect our I-20
terminals tmrw eve. SFC wind S-5KT overnight & SW-10KT by 15Z.
/24/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 415 AM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  74  93  76  93 /  10  30  20  40
MLU  72  93  74  92 /  20  50  30  60
DEQ  69  89  71  89 /  20  30  10  30
TXK  73  92  74  91 /  20  30  10  40
ELD  70  91  71  90 /  20  50  20  50
TYR  74  91  75  90 /  10  20  10  20
GGG  72  91  73  90 /  10  30  10  30
LFK  72  92  73  92 /  20  40  10  40

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....57
AVIATION...24