420
FXUS64 KSHV 291742
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1142 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1137 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

 -  Precipitation will linger through the rest of the weekend
    into next week.

 -  A low-end chance of wintry precipitation is expected along
    and north of the I-30 corridor into south Arkansas on Monday
    and Tuesday mornings.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1137 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

Ongoing precipitation continues to quickly overspread areas west
of I-49 after sunset as anticipated. Short-range guidance suggests
this will continue in the form of showers and isolated
thunderstorms that drift across the rest of the Ark-La-Tex by
Saturday morning. The initial trough responsible for this activity
will enter the area with enough ingredients present in the
atmosphere (e.g. mid-level lapse rates of 7+ C/km) for the
development of thunderstorms capable of producing hail (and some
damaging winds), especially along and south of the I-20 corridor.
Subsequent frontal passage on Sunday will introduce the coldest
air of the season so far. Combined with Pacific moisture, the
following trough, depicted in medium-range guidance, will carry
the potential for wintry precipitation, most likely in the form
of freezing rain. While uncertainty remains regarding the
alignment of enough cold air, moisture and lift for this wintry
precipitation, all of this still adds up to a 20-30% chance of
occurrence at this time. Temperatures will remain near-normal
(maximums in the 60s, minimums in the 40s) until Sunday as the
next air mass is ushered in with frontal passage to bring
temperatures back below normal into the first days of December:
maximums in the 50s, minimums in the 20s-30s at the coldest on
Monday night before rebounding back to near-normal by the middle
of next week. /16/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1137 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

Most sites are borderline VFR/MVFR with VCSH prevailing as this
mornings showers have become more scattered. Showers will stay
that way with gradually lowering cigs and gusty northerly winds.
Another round of showers will move in from the northwest this
afternoon. Confidence on embedded thunderstorms is lower with the
general lack of warmth and instability, but there is still a
chance of some rumbles of thunder and severe weather hazards. The
cold front will push rain out of the region overnight. There is
also some uncertainty on fog development, as the airmass behind
the cold front will be drier but heavy rain could combat the
moisture issue. Clouds should gradually lift through the morning
and return to high MVFR/low VFR by the end of the period. /57/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 113 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

Spotter activation may be needed late Saturday afternoon through
Saturday night.

/19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  64  40  50  39 /  70  90  10  30
MLU  61  41  49  36 /  80  90  30  30
DEQ  53  27  46  29 /  90  30   0  10
TXK  58  33  48  33 /  90  70   0  20
ELD  55  33  45  31 /  90  90   0  20
TYR  65  36  47  37 /  60  70   0  30
GGG  65  36  48  36 /  70  90  10  30
LFK  70  41  51  39 /  60  90  20  50

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&


$$

DISCUSSION...16
AVIATION...57