899
FXUS64 KSHV 201153
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
553 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1224 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

 - For this first time in over three weeks, the potential for much
   needed rain returns to the northern and western half of the
   region late tonight/Thursday, before increasing across the
   remainder of the area Thursday night/Friday.

 - QPF amounts of 1-2+ inches will be highest generally
   along/North of the I-30 corridor through Friday morning.

 - Above normal temperatures will persist areawide through Friday
   before slightly cooler conditions spill southeast into the
   region for the upcoming weekend with the passage of a weak cold
   front.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1224 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

After another very warm and humid day with near to record heat
across the region this afternoon, changes are on the way as
Pacific moisture begins to overspread the region ahead of a sharp
upper trough noted late this evening from Wrn AZ through the Gulf
of CA and the Baja region. Perturbations embedded in the SW flow
aloft have begun to enhance convection development late this
evening over portions of Nrn and WCntrl TX, although the current
convection is much less than what the majority of the short term
progs have been advertising. In fact, the 18/00Z NAM and 00Z WRF-
NSSL have initialized best of the ongoing convection, with the
initial short term forecast followed closely through daybreak thus
necessitating the need for reduced pops especially over NE TX/SW
AR/SE OK. Believe though that deeper convection will not affect
these areas until 09Z or later, with pops lowered to likely
generally along/NW of I-30. Not really sold out on the potential
for svr convection over this area, as MLCape will remain
near/below 1000 J/kg over the NW zones overnight, but the presence
of steep H700-500 lapse rates within a zone of 35-40kt SWrly bulk
shear may result in a few isolated strong storms late.

As this convection expands by daybreak, greater large scale
forcing should begin to spread farther N into SE OK/Wrn AR by mid
to late morning, with convection diminishing from S to N. However,
the primary trough axis out W will begin to take on a negative
tilt by afternoon as it ejects NE through W TX, with increasing
deep convection over much of W TX into OK gradually spreading E
through the Srn Plains during the late afternoon through the
evening hours. Isolated to widely scattered convection may develop
well ahead of the ejecting trough over portions of E TX along low
level theta-e ridging, although the more organized convection
threat will affect the Wrn half of the area Thursday evening
through a portion of the early morning hours Friday as the trough
axis lifts NE through NE TX/SE OK/Wrn AR. These storms should
begin to weaken as they enter the area as the primary forcing
shifts NE with the ejecting trough, although isolated strong
storms still can`t be ruled out given the ample shear and
favorable instability before they weaken overnight. Have
maintained likely and categorical pops over the Wrn sections of
the region Thursday night, with chance pops farther E. Near
record heat will remain possible though through Friday especially
over E TX/N LA, before a weak dryline begins to mix E into E TX/SE
OK/SW AR during the evening. Still can`t rule out isolated to
widely scattered convection ahead of this sfc bndry Friday along
an area of weak PVA in wake of the departing trough, especially
given the very moist and unstable air mass that will remain in
place.

A weak cold front will begin to overtake the sfc dryline by
Saturday morning, which will allow for slightly cooler but more
noticeably drier air to spill S in its wake. The potential for
isolated convection will linger though over Deep E TX/NCntrl LA
Saturday along and ahead of the front, before the front exits the
region by late afternoon/early evening as it stalls over SE TX/S
LA. This bndry should begin to return N as a warm front Sunday
night/Monday morning, as the next deep upper trough, currently off
the Pac NW coast, begins to close off as it settles over Baja,
and begins to eject NE into the Srn Rockies late in the weekend.
Large scale forcing will begin to increase ahead of the
approaching low/attendant Pac front, with convection
expanding/deepening NE into the Wrn zones Sunday night, while
slowly traversing into the Cntrl sections of the region Monday.
Attm, this next wave of convection looks to provide more
substantial rainfall to much of the region to start the holiday
week, while also providing slightly cooler temps until a stronger
cold front reinforces much cooler and more seasonal air SE into
the area for mid and late week, along with a more prolonged period
of dry conditions through the Thanksgiving holiday into the
holiday weekend.

15

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 546 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

Flight conditions remain disturbed this morning across the
airspace as ongoing SHRA/TSRA follows a line from SW to NE across
the I-30 vicinity terminals. Else where, low clouds has resulted
in terminals battling MVFR/IFR and brief instances of LIFR CIGs.
This will be the theme through the day as upper forcing shifts
east, keeping the pattern disturbed through at least the next 24
hours. While many of the ETX and NWLA terminals battle low CIGs
early in the period, it will be after 00z this evening that
convective prospects increase as morning hi-res suggest increasing
coverage of TSRA from west to east as we approach 06z. Trends
point towards coverage and intensity decreasing through 12z as the
line moves east, but in the wake of the projected complex, low
clouds and even some gusty winds may prevail. Afternoon guidance
should dial in on these threats with later packages.

53

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1224 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

Spotter activation may be needed for isolated strong storms late
tonight and shortly after daybreak Thursday for extreme Northeast
Texas, Southeast Oklahoma, and adjacent Southwest Arkansas. /15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  83  67  82  61 /  20  60  40  20
MLU  82  65  81  62 /  10  40  50  20
DEQ  74  61  75  48 /  90  90  40  10
TXK  79  65  77  55 /  70  80  50  10
ELD  79  64  78  55 /  30  50  40  20
TYR  80  66  79  54 /  50  80  50  20
GGG  80  65  79  55 /  40  70  50  20
LFK  82  65  82  62 /  30  40  50  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&


$$

DISCUSSION...15
AVIATION...53