580
FXUS64 KSHV 141725
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1225 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1016 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Scattered to overcast skies cover the region this morning, as seen
on recent visible satellite imagery. There are some areas of
convection that have initiated in our southern zones over the
past hour or so. These are likely more diurnal pop ups and should
stay relatively discreet, due to the lack of a nearby frontal
boundary or other mechanism that would lead to better
organization. While severe potential is limited, we will be
watching these storms for severe hazards and flash flooding
concerns.

The forecast is on track this morning. Recent observations were
loaded in but no major changes were necessary. /57/

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Sunday)
Issued at 252 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

KEY MESSAGES...

- Typical summer weather will continue as rain chances
  become more scattered and driven by daytime heating this weekend.

- Rainfall totals into the middle of next week are likely to range
  at 0.50-1.5 inches with higher totals further east, closer to
  the Mississippi River and Gulf Coast.

- A weather pattern change will allow for drier and hotter
  conditions later next week.

Somewhat active weather will continue with ridging over the
Southern Rocky Mountains to our west combined with inverted
troughing overhead setting up a mini-northwest flow pattern
through the weekend. That said, the degree of intensity or impact
from will be muted by drier air infiltration and slightly quieter
embedded flow aloft. The next more significant shortwave arrives
by Sunday, driving higher chances of rain. Dew points will remain
above 70 degrees, maintaining muggy outdoor conditions for the
foreseeable future. Temperature maximums and minimums will remain
near-normal in the upper 80s/lower 90s and mid-70s, respectively.
/16/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 252 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Long-range guidance continues to suggest the aforementioned
trough axis trapped behind Atlantic ridging to gradually weaken by
the middle of next week before finally being displaced by ridging
to the west. With convection becoming more suppressed and
southerly winds continuing, temperature maximums will return above
normal reaching the mid-90s by the end of next week. /16/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1219 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

For the 14/18z TAF update...Radar imagery is showing a large
cluster of showers and thunderstorms moving through south central
Louisiana into central Louisiana with additional showers and
thunderstorms moving through deep east Texas. Additionally, there
is a cluster of thunderstorms moving across southeast Oklahoma
that could move into our area by this afternoon. Right now the
terminals that will be impacted over the next few hours will be
KLFK, KMLU and potentially KMLU, however, I have left mention of
at least VCTS for the rest of our terminals this afternoon. Any
thunderstorms that do happen to move over a terminal will result
in reduction to visibility and some lower CIGs. KLFK could see
some lower CIGs and BR that will bring IFR to LIFR conditions
tonight. Things should return to VFR for all terminals towards the
end of the period. /33/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 651 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon and evening for
the potential for isolated strong to severe thunderstorms across
the region, as well as the threat for brief heavy rainfall and
minor flooding. /15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  75  89  75  91 /  20  60  10  40
MLU  72  91  74  90 /  30  70  20  50
DEQ  70  88  70  89 /  20  40  10  30
TXK  73  89  73  91 /  20  50  10  30
ELD  70  88  71  89 /  30  60  20  40
TYR  73  89  74  89 /  10  40  10  20
GGG  72  89  73  89 /  20  50  10  30
LFK  72  90  73  91 /  20  60  10  50

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...33