268
FXUS64 KSHV 231913
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
113 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1024 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

 - One more dry day areawide on Sunday before we begin to see
   moisture returning late Sunday/Sunday Night in advance of our
   next storm system.

 - Still looking at a window for excessive heavy rainfall and
   possible severe weather beginning to impact the region on
   Monday, continuing through at last Monday Night.

 - Colder air still poised to move into the region during the day
   Wednesday and through the end of the holiday week with near
   freezing overnight low temperatures across our northern zones
   for Wed Night and again Thu Night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1024 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

Still seeing post frontal northwest winds across our region late
this evening and temperatures a little more indicative of late
November compared to what we`ve seen through most of this month.
Low level post frontal cloud cover remains across portions of SE
OK and Central AR and this moisture will try to backdoor into our
region from the northeast overnight and on Sunday. These clouds
may be stubborn to break out during the morning but think we will
eventually see some scattering out of this moisture if not by late
morning then by afternoon. Northeasterly winds will become near
easterly by afternoon which, assuming we see the cloud cover
diminishing during the day, we should see temperatures warming
into the middle 60s north to the lower and middle 70s south for
Sunday.

Beyond Sunday, we begin to watch a vigorous upper trough eject out
of the Four Corners Region of the Country and into the Southern
Plains late Sunday Night and during the day Monday. We will likely
begin to see returning showers and thunderstorms in advance of
this trough late Sunday Night but especially during the predawn
hours Monday Morning across our far northwest zones. More of our
region will await more broad forcing in association with the upper
trough ejection during the day Monday to see more widespread
convection across mostly our northwest half during the day Monday,
with convection moving into our southeast half Monday Evening
through the overnight hours. At this time, the heaviest rainfall
appears to be mainly to the north and northwest of the I-20
Corridor of NE TX, SE OK and SW AR. This will be the same general
area where beneficial rainfall fell with our last trough on
Thursday. While much of this region remains in a Slight Risk for
Excessive, Heavy Rainfall in the Monday/Monday Night timeframe,
this area should be able to take a good 1-3 inch rainfall without
widespread flooding impacts and therefore, no Flood Watch will be
issued with this package.

Concerning severe weather potential, SPC did upgrade our region to
a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms, again in this
Monday/Monday Night timeframe and this is certainly warranted
given the consistency in the models when it comes to low level
directional shear and bulk shear progs. Still what is uncertain is
the amount of surface based instability as much of this
instability may be slightly elevated due to a low level capping
inversion. This could mean everything when it comes to a more
serious risk of tornadoes with this convection vs more of an
isolated hail and/or wind threat if the storms remain mostly
elevated. Regardless, the convection should exit our region to
the southeast early on Tuesday.

Strong cold front to enter our region from the northwest late
Tuesday Night and into the day Wednesday bringing and end to high
temperatures in the 70s for the remainder of the holiday week. We
should really feel the chill overnight Wed Night and again Thu
Night with low temperatures in the 30s across most areas Wed Night
and across the east Thu Night. Near freezing temperatures will be
possible across our far northern and northeastern zones both
nights.

Our next trough begins to take shape across the Intermountain West
once again by next weekend. With upper southwesterly flow
returning, progs are hinting at possible showers and storms
returning to our region along with a warming trend to begin the
weekend.

13

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1250 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

For the 23/18Z TAF period, MVFR stratus cigs continue to plague
our AR/LA terminals early this afternoon while East TX sites are
VFR with just some passing cirrus. The lower cigs across AR/LA
will gradually lift through the remainder of today and should
return to VFR status by mid to late afternoon as well as slightly
thinning out in coverage through late afternoon and early evening.
However, look for increasing clouds once again closer to midnight
through Monday morning as a warm front begins to lifts back north
from the coast ahead of an approaching trough and cold front. The
return of MVFR cigs will come late in the period with increasing
Gulf moisture along the warm front which will likely induce some
showers and isolated thunderstorms through the end of the period.
Therefore, have introduced convection at most sites by around 09Z
over our NW terminals at KTYR/KTXK and shortly thereafter at KGGG
and KSHV. Farther south and east, convection may hold off until
just beyond the end of the period. Expect NE winds this afternoon
to continue veering E/SE throughout the period with speeds ranging
from 5-10 kts on average.

/19/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1250 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

Spotter activation may be needed Monday and Monday night due to
the threat of severe weather and heavy rainfall.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  55  76  59  74 /  40  70 100  10
MLU  50  78  62  76 /   0  50 100  40
DEQ  49  61  53  68 /  80  90  50   0
TXK  53  68  57  70 /  60  90  80  10
ELD  47  69  59  71 /  20  80 100  10
TYR  58  75  54  71 /  40  90  60   0
GGG  55  76  57  72 /  40  90  90  10
LFK  57  80  59  76 /  10  70 100  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&


$$

DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...19