427
FXUS64 KSHV 191157
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
557 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 946 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

 - Unseasonably warm temperatures will continue through at least
   the remainder of the work week, through the upcoming weekend
   and into early next week as well.

 - However, temperatures will be tapered somewhat by precipitation
   as rain chances finally begin increasing across the region
   Wednesday Night and especially Thursday through Friday.

 - At this time, flooding and/or severe thunderstorms do not
   appear to have widespread impacts across our region through at
   least Friday but we cannot rule out an isolated strong to
   severe storm that could also result in excessive, heavy
   rainfall.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 946 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

You have to go back to the last week of October since our region
has received measurable rainfall. To go along with the incredible
dry spell our region has experienced, near record heat each
afternoon, afternoon wildfires, and overnight high minimum
temperatures have also accompanied this stagnant weather pattern.
There is hope in the short term horizon with a pattern change
coming our way that will hopefully result in a wetting rain
across most if not all the Four State Region to end the work week.
However, any kind of significant cold air intrusion will likely
have to wait until the mid to later half of next week.

Upper ridge axis directly overhead attm will begin to shift east
of our region later today through tonight as a deep upper level
trough becomes established across the Desert Southwest. This
trough will eject out quickly tonight and Thursday into the Texas
Hill Country and the Southern Plains filling quickly as it does.
Lead disturbances in advance of the upper trough will be embedded
in an increasingly southwesterly flow aloft pattern and that will
assist in bringing convection into portions of our northwest
zones as early as this evening but especially overnight tonight
through the day Thursday. It`s not until late on Thursday but
especially Thu Night into early Friday that more of the Four State
Region gets in on the convection as forcing will become maximized
in advance of the filling trough from the west impacting our
region. Heaviest rainfall amounts should be felt across our
northwest third as this is the region that will feel the impacts
from the lead disturbance as well as the trough itself but as dry
as our region has been, this region should be able to take a good
rainfall without too much in the way of widespread impacts. The
same can be said for the remainder of our region in the Thu Night
through early Friday timeframe. With flash flooding not having any
widespread impacts through the end of the work week, the same can
be said for severe weather impacts as instability does not appear
to be sufficient to sustain any kind of widespread, severe
weather outbreak with this trough.

Convection should be ending from northwest to southeast across our
region on Friday but cannot rule out at least isolated to
scattered convection possible across at least our southeast half
on Saturday and areawide on Sunday as our region will remain under
southwesterly flow aloft as yet another vigorous upper level
trough drops southward into the Desert Southwest by the upcoming
weekend. Unlike it`s predecessor, this trough appears to come out
all in one piece, likely impacting at least the western half of
our region Sunday Night and more of our region Monday into
Tuesday. This second trough may has the potential to produce more
in the way of excessive heavy rainfall and possible severe weather
compared to its predecessor so we will have to monitor this
trough`s evolution and progression closely through the upcoming
weekend. It`s behind this second trough that we may finally begin
to see some much colder air move out of the Plains and into the
Lower Miss Valley on Thanksgiving Day and beyond.

13

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 546 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

Quite a few terminals battling a mix of IFR and LIFR flight
conditions this morning as low ceilings below 1kft and instances
of BR/FG are the key players in this. Expect for this to continue
through the morning with gradual recovery into the afternoon.
Though the low clouds should lift and scatter out some through the
afternoon, mid and high clouds will play more into the forecast
before the low clouds look to return overnight and into Thursday.
At the same time, convective hazards will increase by the late
stages of the TAF period as VCSH and VCTS were introduced just
before 20/12z, with SHRA/TSRA existing across the NW tier of the
airspace, moving east and closer to TXK by 20/12z. Terminal winds
will continue to be southerly through the period between 5-10kt,
with the potential for gusty VRB winds under stronger convection.

53

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 946 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

While thunderstorm chances will be increasing across the northwest
half of our region tonight, these storms will not likely produce
any widespread severe weather.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  84  67  81  67 /   0  20  20  70
MLU  83  64  81  65 /   0  10  10  50
DEQ  82  63  74  59 /  10  80  80  90
TXK  83  67  79  65 /  10  60  60  90
ELD  81  63  77  62 /   0  30  30  70
TYR  83  68  79  65 /  10  50  50  80
GGG  83  66  80  63 /  10  40  40  80
LFK  84  64  82  65 /  20  10  40  70

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&


$$

DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...53