705
FXUS64 KSHV 010547
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1147 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 127 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

 - Cold front has advanced well to our south along the northern
   Gulf coast with strong CAA overtaking our entire region.

 - Upper-level troughing to our west is already beginning to force
   weak isentropic ascent overtop the cold air at the sfc, setting
   the stage for increased overrunning this evening and overnight.

 - The incoming trough will lead more rainfall beginning later on
   tonight through the day on Monday along with the possibility of
   some light wintry mixed precipitation along and north of I-30.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 127 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

Cold and blustery post-frontal conditions have settled across the
region this afternoon as northerly winds continue to occasionally
gust upwards of 15-20 mph. Despite the frontal passage, we managed
to hold on to cloud cover throughout the day thanks to very strong
zonal flow aloft which continues to feed Pacific moisture eastward
into the region. This upper-level pattern is further enhanced by a
pair of troughs, one out over the eastern Pacific and another one
currently traversing through the Rockies. The latter will be our
focus during the short-term as it continues to pivot eastward into
the Plains, inducing more large scale ascent and setting up a very
strong overrunning forecast scenario across our region through the
next 24-36 hours.

The main forecast challenge is trying to account for temperatures
dropping to near freezing overnight through Monday morning across
our northernmost zones while also aligning that with the onset of
precipitation. For now, it appears the majority of the region will
remain precip-free through midnight, but that will quickly change
thereafter as the atmosphere continues to saturate through Monday
morning. It is during this early to mid morning timeframe where
sfc temperatures may cool just enough to reach freezing over our
northernmost zones for a brief period of freezing rain to mix in
with what should be just a cold rain for the vast majority of the
region. Probabilities remain quite low for this resulting in any
accumulations, and areas most likely to see a trace to very light
icing is along the Ouachitas in SE OK and adjacent SW AR. However,
given such low confidence, have opted against issuing any winter
weather headlines for now and re-evaluate the need for a Winter
Weather Advisory with future forecast updates later this evening.

As we move into Monday afternoon, sfc temperatures are expected to
rise above freezing areawide so any icing concerns in northernmost
areas should gradually fade. Meanwhile, the upper trough axis will
just begin shifting into the region late Monday into Monday night
with rain ending from west to east through daybreak on Tuesday. It
will bear watching, however, whether sfc temperatures can manage
to fall back to freezing prior to moisture completely exiting the
region. For this reason, cannot rule out another brief changeover
to freezing rain once again along the far northern tier counties
in SW AR, roughly along and north of the I-30 corridor. If this
does occur, it should be very brief and result in little if any
travel impacts on Tuesday morning.

Gradual clearing is expected through the remainder of Tuesday with
below normal temperatures and north to northwest winds prevailing.
Another very cold night will follow with an areawide freeze likely
once again as overnight low temperatures will closely mirror those
from Monday night, ranging from the middle and upper 20s north to
lower 30s south. A gradual warming trend will commence Wednesday
with dry conditions carrying the day before rain returns with the
next trough arriving by Wednesday night and lingering the end of
the week.

/19/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1145 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

For the 01/06z TAF period...Expect reduced flight categories to
return during the period as low cigs and light rain move back into
the region. There is a chance for some light icing in the extreme
northern portions of the airspace, but that should remain just
north of KTXK and KELD. However, it will be close enough to
monitor for future TAFs. The precip will finally clear out by the
end of the period, but low cigs will remain, except at KTYR/KTXK.

/20/


&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 828 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

Spotter activation is not expected at this time but may be needed
on Monday morning with precipitation returning, possibly in the
form of a brief wintry mix over northern portions of the region.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  38  42  32  50 /  20  60  50   0
MLU  35  41  30  47 /  10  80  80   0
DEQ  29  37  23  47 /  10  50  20   0
TXK  33  37  28  47 /  10  50  30   0
ELD  30  36  25  44 /  10  70  60   0
TYR  37  42  30  50 /  20  40  30   0
GGG  35  41  29  50 /  20  50  40   0
LFK  38  45  31  52 /  30  70  50   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST Monday for ARZ050-051-060-
     061.

LA...None.
OK...Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST Monday for OKZ077.

TX...None.
&&


$$

DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...57