927
FXUS64 KSHV 021723
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1123 AM CST Sun Nov 2 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1223 AM CDT Sun Nov 2 2025

 - One more day of below normal temperatures is expected Sunday
   before a warming trend results in a return to above normal
   temperatures Tuesday through at least the start of next
   weekend.

 - Dry conditions will continue through the entire forecast
   period.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1223 AM CDT Sun Nov 2 2025

The early morning water vapor imagery indicates a closed low
nearing the MO Bootheel, with the trailing longwave trough
extending farther SW into Deep S TX and the NW Gulf. Much drier
air aloft has spilled SE into SE TX/portions of Acadiana in wake
of the trough, with only some patchy residual low AC in VC of the
H850 trough over portions of SCntrl AR and N TX. Of particular
concern are the areas of FG that has developed late this evening
across SCntrl AR to the I-20 corridor of N LA into E TX, ahead of
a reinforcing weak cold front that still lingers from just S of
the Red River over extreme NE TX into the Nrn sections of SW AR.
The FG is evident from the 12.3-10.35u satellite imagery this
morning, with the expectation for the FG to gradually shift S
(and possibly diminish across its Nrn fringes) as the colder air
begins to seep farther S into extreme NE TX/Srn AR overnight. As
of 05Z, sfc obs, traffic cams and cams from the LA Mesonet have
not indicated that the FG is that dense, although that may change
some overnight as it drifts farther S. Still not sure how far S
the FG will drift as the short term progs have not initialized
well on it yet, with the exception of the 00Z HRRR. For this
reason, will hold off on a Dense FG Advisory and will continue to
monitor. Otherwise, sfc obs across Southern McCurtain County OK
into much of SW AR have not cooled as much as previously forecast,
with the lack of more significant cold advection expected to keep
min temps warmer as well. Thus, have had to trim back the
existing Frost Advisory to drop Little River, Hempstead, and
Nevada Counties.

The FG should quickly lift by mid-morning, with sfc ridging
shifting SE into the Mid-South into ECntrl TX through the day. One
more day of below normal temps are expected Sunday in wake of the
fropa as it mixes S through the area, with readings ranging
throughout the 60s. Sfc ridging will then become anchored over the
Lower MS Valley Sunday night, with a clear sky/light winds
resulting in good radiational cooling and the coldest night of the
7 day forecast period. Frost should become more expansive over
much of SW AR and portions of N LA late Sunday night, before a
discernible warmup commences Monday as upper ridging now over the
Desert SW, shifts E into the Srn Plains and Lower MS Valley. Sfc
ridging remains progged to shift farther E into the TN valley and
SE CONUS Tuesday, with a SSWrly low level flow commencing and
contributing to even warmer temps Tuesday through the remainder of
the upcoming new work week. In fact, temps will near/exceed 80
degrees over much of the region Wednesday through Saturday, as
flat ridging aloft persists along the Gulf Coast and NCntrl Gulf.
A zonal flow atop the weakening ridge is expected through at least
the first half of next weekend, with the ensembles suggesting
that any troughing will remain N of the region. Thus, a lack of
forcing S of the trough and limited low level moisture return
will preclude mention of pops in the latter extended attm.

15

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1120 AM CST Sun Nov 2 2025

For the 02/18Z TAFs, VFR conditions will continue throughout the
forecast period, with uninterrupted SKC for all area terminals.
Northerly winds will continue through this afternoon at maximum
sustained speeds of 5 to 8 kts, becoming light to nearly calm this
evening and through the night, and remaining light and variable
into tomorrow morning.

/26/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1223 AM CDT Sun Nov 2 2025

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  43  73  47  76 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  38  69  42  73 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  37  70  42  73 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  41  72  47  75 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  36  69  41  72 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  44  74  49  75 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  41  74  45  75 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  42  75  43  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&


$$

DISCUSSION...15
AVIATION...26