886
FXUS64 KSJT 061115 AAA
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
615 AM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm and dry conditions continue today.

- Low chances (20%) for showers and a few thunderstorms Tuesday
  afternoon through Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 120 AM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025

Our area will have one more quiet day today, with above normal
temperatures. Skies will be sunny to partly cloudy, and highs this
afternoon will be mostly in the upper 80s to lower 90s. With a
weaker pressure gradient, south to southeast winds will be less than
yesterday. A positively tilted upper trough initially extends from
Saskatchewan/Manitoba Provinces in Canada across the Great Basin and
California, and our area is under weak southwest flow aloft. The
northern portion of this trough will make eastward progress today
and tonight. At the surface, a weak cold front is expected to
move south across much of the Big Country late tonight. The front
should be near I-20 by 7 AM Tuesday. Expect winds to be light
southeast to east ahead of the front. With the frontal passage in
the Big Country late tonight, winds will shift to the north to
northeast. For our area, rain chances tonight look too negligible
to include a mention in the forecast. Lows tonight will be in the
lower to mid 60s, with clear to partly cloudy skies.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 1258 AM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025

Our best chance for rain this week remains Tuesday and Wednesday.
With the weakened upper high, we could see a few weak disturbances
move through the flow aloft. This combined with the weak surface
front could be enough to trigger a few showers and storms Tuesday
and Wednesday. A strong surface high will move towards the Great
Lakes region Tuesday into Wednesday, this will help push the front
into our area, turning our winds more to the northeast. The wind
shift, increased cloud cover, and weakened ridge will drop our highs
a few degrees for Tuesday and Wednesday. Rain chances remain low
(<20%) for this time period, with amounts likely staying below a
quarter of an inch for the areas that do see rain. The upper ridge
will build back over the area Thursday into the weekend, lowering
our rain chances and increasing temperatures into the 90s again
by the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 614 AM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025

VFR conditions are expected to prevail today and tonight. May have
some patchy low cloud development in the 12Z-15Z time frame in some
of our southern counties, and carrying a scattered mention at
KJCT/KSOA. Wind speeds will be lower compared to the past 24
hours. Winds will be from the south to southeast today. A weak
cold front is expected to move south across most if not all of the
Big Country late late tonight. At this time, leaning toward the
faster NAM timing and have included a wind shift at KABI at 11Z
Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     91  66  89  64 /   0   0  10   0
San Angelo  89  63  88  63 /   0   0  10  10
Junction    89  63  88  64 /   0   0  20  10
Brownwood   90  63  89  62 /   0   0  10   0
Sweetwater  91  66  88  63 /   0   0  10   0
Ozona       88  64  87  64 /   0   0  20  10
Brady       87  65  86  64 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....AP
AVIATION...19