623
FXUS64 KSJT 221750
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1150 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry and pleasant weather expected today.

- Another round of thunderstorms and the potential for heavy
  rainfall is expected from Sunday through Monday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 154 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

Another nice day is in store for West Central Texas today. Short
wave ridging aloft will be in place today, ahead of an approaching
upper level system to our west. This system will bring increasing
rain chances to the area Sunday into Monday. For today, expect
mostly sunny skies, light winds and pleasant temperatures, with
afternoon highs in the upper 60s and lower 70s. Cloud cover will
increase across the area tonight, as the upper level system to
our west approaches. Could see a few light showers develop
primarily over southwest sections towards daybreak, but rain
chances will remain low, with the bulk of precipitation holding
off until later Sunday. Lows tonight will be mainly in the upper
40s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 128 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

A warm front, with moist air and increasing lift, returns Sunday
ahead of an upper low moving east into New Mexico. The GFS model
0-6km shear increases to 60 to 70 KTS Sunday and Sunday night with
MUCAPES of 1000 to 2000 J/KG south of I-20, and around 500 J/KG
along and north of I-20. This could also development of a few
supercells. SPC day2 has a marginal risk of severe storms across
all of West Central Texas Sunday, and mentions the best time frame
on Sunday night. Large hail is the main hazard, but some damaging
wind gusts also possible. Locally heavy rainfall and flooding
possible. There is a medium to high (75 to 85 percent) potential
for 1 inch of rainfall, though this falls to 40 percent along
I-10.

Some storms may still be ongoing Monday morning with clearing
midday, as a Pacific front moves through with west winds and
drier air. A strong cold front may move into the Big Country
Tuesday afternoon, and in the evening across the region of the
region. Surface high pressure will be directly over the region
Thanksgiving morning, and would be surprised to see a light
freeze in some low lying or protected areas. There have been a
couple freezes already this Fall, so additional freeze warnings
are not expected. Another storm system developing in the West may
bring a chance of rain a week from today.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1014 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

Light winds are forecast to continue through the next 24 hours.
VFR conditions will prevail through this evening. Stratus is
forecast to develop across the Edwards Plateau Sunday morning,
then spread across the area through the day. Initially MVFR
ceilings are expected, but ceilings should slowly lower into the
IFR category by late morning or early afternoon. Scattered showers
and thunderstorms are forecast to develop by late morning or
early afternoon, but left any mention out of the forecast at this
time, since this is at the very end of the forecast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     69  47  67  56 /   0   0  80 100
San Angelo  71  46  67  55 /   0  10  70  90
Junction    73  48  70  57 /   0  10  40  60
Brownwood   70  44  68  55 /   0   0  50  90
Sweetwater  70  49  64  55 /   0   0  80  90
Ozona       73  51  65  57 /   0  10  50  80
Brady       70  47  67  57 /   0  10  40  80

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...Daniels