593
FXUS64 KSJT 160605
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1205 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

...New SHORT TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Record or near record high temperatures through Tuesday.

- Rain chances increase Wednesday into Thursday. There`s a marginal
  risk for excessive rainfall east of a Sweetwater to San Angelo
  to Junction line.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1202 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

Warm and dry conditions under Upper-level ridging will persist
across West Central Texas through the start of the work week, with
another round of above normal, and potentially record breaking high
temperatures expected Today. High temperatures along and south of
I-10 today are expected to reach into the mid 80s to lower 90s.
Whereas, north of I-10 with the next weak cold front stalling over
the Big Country today, temperatures are expected to remain
slightly cooler in the upper 70s to mid 80s. The daily record high
temperature for November 16th at Abilene is 86, and 87 for San
Angelo. Overnight lows will be cool, but well above seasonal
normals, in the mid to upper 50s for most locations.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Sunday)
Issued at 1146 PM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

The strong upper ridge that brought unseasonably warm temperatures
over the weekend will start to break down on Monday.  This will be
partly due to an upper-level low that will push out of the Desert
Southwest into the central Plains. This fast-moving system will lead
to warm southwesterly flow and a persistent 850mb thermal ridge. As
a result, Monday should see another day of above-normal, and
possibly record-breaking, high temperatures. However, the upper-
level jet stream starts to shift over west Texas and could carry in
some high clouds from the Pacific, which would limit the high
temperatures a bit.

Starting Tuesday, a pattern change is in store for the middle to
latter half of the upcoming week.  Models consistently show a strong
upper-level trough that will dig into northern Mexico late Tuesday
and progress eastward Wednesday and Thursday. Gulf moisture looks to
increase substantially ahead of this feature, especially on
Wednesday. Ensemble probabilities show medium to high (40-80%)
chances of rain and thunderstorms for Wednesday through Thursday.
The highest chances could occur with a potential line of
thunderstorms Wednesday night into Thursday when a Pacific-based
cold front will push through the region. At this point,
probabilities for over an inch of rain in 24 hours are 30-50%, but
given how many moving parts are at play with this event, the
rainfall amounts, timing, and convective elements could still change
quite a bit over the next couple of days.  For now, WPC is carrying
a Marginal Risk of Excessive Rainfall Outlook across much of west central
Texas Wednesday into Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1107 PM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

VFR conditions and generally clear skies are expected overnight
and Sunday. South-southwest winds will veer to southwest and west
overnight. A weak cold front will move south across the Big
Country late tonight into Sunday morning. Carrying a wind shift
(to north-northwest) at KABI at 13Z, with wind speeds 4-7 knots.
The front should stall somewhere south of I-20 and possibly
along a Brownwood to Sterling City line in the afternoon.
For the rest of our TAF sites, expect mostly west winds at 4-6
knots Sunday morning into the afternoon. Going into the
evening hours, winds will be generally light.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     86  57  88  62 /   0   0   0   0
San Angelo  88  56  87  58 /   0   0   0   0
Junction    91  55  88  61 /   0   0   0   0
Brownwood   87  55  88  60 /   0   0   0  10
Sweetwater  85  60  86  59 /   0   0   0   0
Ozona       88  55  84  60 /   0   0   0   0
Brady       88  59  86  63 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TP
LONG TERM....SK
AVIATION...19