328
FXUS64 KSJT 271900
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
200 PM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal temperatures will continue through Wednesday.

- Low to medium (15 to 40%) chance for isolated to scattered
  thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Gusty winds are a
  concern.

- Medium to high (50-80%) chance for rain from Wednesday through
  Friday, along with cooler temperatures by the second half of
  this week. Heavy rainfall is the main concern with this event.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026

It`s unseasonably hot again out there today, with temperatures
mainly in the 90s, and light and variable winds.

CAMs again show isolated to scattered thunderstorms developing
later this afternoon mainly south of a Sterling City to Brownwood
line. With mid and upper level flow generally out of the
northwest, these storms are expected to then drift to the
southeast through the evening hours, with the southern Concho
Valley, northern Edwards Plateau, and northwest Hill County areas
most likely to be affected. We`re not expecting severe weather,
but gusty winds, and locally heavy rainfall will be possible. For
Monday, another hot day is expected, with highs in the mid to
upper 90s, after morning lows in the upper 60s to mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026

From Monday night through next weekend, the main concern will
continue to center around the potential for significant
precipitation late this week. Models continue to converge around a
general solution bringing a significant upper level trough
through the southern plains this week after absorbing and picking
up moisture from the remnants of what is now Hurricane Polo. The
remnants of Polo are expected to be absorbed into the upper level
trough Monday night into Tuesday morning from northwest Mexico
when the upper trough is still making its way east into Arizona.
We will still be hot Tuesday, with the best chance for
precipitation still west of us as well. By Wednesday afternoon,
the GFS places the trough axis in eastern New Mexico, with the
ECMWF a tad slower. The speed of the upper trough will have a
significant effect on when and where the heaviest precipitation
takes place, especially for our western counties. At this time, it
appears that a surface Pacific cold frontal boundary will move
into our western counties Wednesday afternoon and evening. At the
same time, both the GFS and ECM suggest that the remnant vorticity
max from Polo could be wrapping into the upper level trough over
west Texas. This could potentially enhance precipitation chances
and amounts across west and west- central Texas, especially as was
mentioned in the previous discussion, precipitable waters will be
approach 2.5 inches in our area during this time period. However,
the timing will be critical, and if the system is faster than
currently anticipated, much of our area will see significantly
less rainfall, especially west of an Abilene to Sonora line. There
is more confidence in heavier rainfall amounts east of that same
line. In either case, the potential is there for the entire area
to have concerns about heavy rainfall, but confidence is higher in
areas east of an Abilene to Sonora line.

Expect most of the area to see precipitation ending by Thursday
night. However, if the upper level trough slows significantly,
there will be additional precipitation for areas east of a Coleman
to Sonora line into Friday. Temperatures will also finally cool
off, with highs expected to cool from the 90s on Tuesday into the
80s by Thursday, and potentially into the 70s from Friday into the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026

VFR conditions are expected across all terminals through the next
24 hours, with the exception of any showers or thunderstorms that
cause reduced visibilities this afternoon and early evening. KABI
is the only terminal showers and thunderstorms aren`t expected
impact this afternoon. Brief gusty winds and locally heavy
rainfall are possible within any thunderstorms. Southwest winds
will remain around 10 knots through early this evening before
generally becoming light and variable overnight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     73  97  74  96 /   0  20  10   0
San Angelo  71  96  71  95 /  10  10  10   0
Junction    70  95  69  93 /  30  10   0   0
Brownwood   70  96  71  94 /  10  20  20   0
Sweetwater  71  97  73  95 /   0  10  10   0
Ozona       70  94  69  91 /  20  10   0   0
Brady       70  94  69  92 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...TP