763
FXUS64 KSJT 212336
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
536 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry and quiet weather expected tonight through Saturday.

- Another round of heavy rainfall and thunderstorms is expected
  from Sunday through Monday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 224 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

Much drier conditions have settled in across west central Texas
today in the wake of yesterday`s heavy rain event across the
northwest Hill Country.  Temperatures are in the low 70s this
afternoon with northwest winds. Overnight, an area of surface high
pressure will push a weak cold front from the north into Texas.  The
cooler airmass behind it, along with mostly clear skies and light
winds, should allow low temperatures to fall to the mid 40s.  The
area of high pressure should settle in over northwest Texas Saturday
morning then move slowly east through the day. Partly cloudy skies
are expected with some increase in clouds by the afternoon as
moisture increases ahead of the next approaching system over
northwest Mexico.  Despite the slightly cooler airmass, highs will
be in the upper 60s to around 70 tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Friday)
Issued at 1229 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

The next upper level system is forecast to approach the area late
this weekend, bringing the potential for heavy rainfall. An upper
level low is forecast to be centered across Arizona early Sunday
morning, then track northeast across the Southern Plains Sunday
night into Monday. Ahead of this system, surface moisture will
quickly increase, with dewpoints rising into the upper 50s to lower
60s across much of the area by late Sunday. The first round of
showers and isolated thunderstorms is expected during the day
Sunday, as an upper level disturbance approaches from the southwest.
The convection that is expected during the day Sunday should be more
scattered in nature, with lower rainfall amounts. Higher rainfall
chances are then expected Sunday night into Monday morning, as large
scale ascent from the aforementioned upper level trough/low
overspreads the area. In addition, a Pacific front will track across
the region, providing a focus for shower and thunderstorm
development. There is a medium to high chance (60 to 80 percent) of
rain across the area during this time frame. Precipitable water
values from Sunday afternoon into Monday morning are forecast to
increase to 1.5 inches plus, especially across the northern half of
the area, including much of the Concho Valley, Heartland, and Big
Country. These values are anomalously high for late November, so
locally heavy rainfall is possible. A few strong to severe
thunderstorms are also possible, Sunday afternoon into the overnight
hours. The main threats at this point look to be large hail and
damaging winds, but the details will become more clear as we get
closer to the event.

Mild temperatures are forecast for the start of next week, with
highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s and overnight lows in the 50s. The
next cold front is forecast to track south across the area Tuesday
night into Wednesday morning. Cooler temperatures are forecast on
Wednesday with highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s and overnight
lows in the 30s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 534 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

VFR conditions will continue at the terminals through the next 24
hours. Winds will remain under 10 knots.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     45  69  49  65 /   0   0  30  80
San Angelo  42  70  50  69 /   0   0  50  70
Junction    44  72  50  71 /   0   0  40  60
Brownwood   44  70  46  66 /   0   0  30  70
Sweetwater  45  69  51  64 /   0   0  40  90
Ozona       44  72  53  68 /   0   0  50  70
Brady       45  69  51  66 /   0   0  40  70

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM....Daniels
AVIATION...42