057
FXUS62 KTAE 010709
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
309 AM EDT Thu Oct 1 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 242 AM EDT Thu Oct 1 2026

- An unseasonably hot and humid air mass continues through Friday
  with heat indices reaching the mid 90s to lower 100s.

- Rain chances are forecast to increase substantially this weekend
  with several rounds of showers and storms possible across the
  region. A Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for excessive rainfall is
  in effect for parts of Southeast Alabama and the Florida
  Panhandle for Friday and Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 242 AM EDT Thu Oct 1 2026

High pressure over the western Atlantic today will allow for a
continuation of moisture advection across the region. Sub-1.5 inch
PWATs this morning increase to 1.75 to 2 inches by this evening.
Convective activity this afternoon looks to be primarily across the
sea breeze as it moves inland. Given southeasterly flow today, the
convective corridor looks to be oriented along a line from
Apalachicola, FL to Geneva, AL. By the late afternoon and early
evening the Atlantic sea breeze looks to move in from the east,
potentially bringing showers and storms across our south central GA
and FL Big Bend counties.

Daytime highs are generally expected to be in the upper 80s to low
90s. Overnight lows look to be in the upper 60s to low 70s tonight.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 242 AM EDT Thu Oct 1 2026

The aforementioned high pressure remains anchored across the western
Atlantic until a cold front moves through on Monday. As a result,
we`ll see a couple perturbations moving around the periphery of the
high resulting in increasing rain chances Friday through Sunday.
Modest SBCAPE each afternoon coupled with PWATs between 2-2.5 inches
will lead to widespread showers and storms. Given the incredibly
moist environment it`ll be tough to see severe weather, but a couple
storms could produce gusty winds. Otherwise, the primary threat will
be the rainfall as model guidance continues to climb, especially for
area along the immediate Gulf Coast. Widespread 2 to 4 inches are
expected through Wednesday with isolated higher amounts possible
across the FL Panhandle, with 6 to 8 inches not being out of the
realm of possibility. This would be due to Monday`s cold front
not clearing out all the way and stalling along the coast or
within our NE Gulf waters leading to unsettled weather through
Wednesday. Be sure to check back for updates on this multi-day
rain event.

Expect cooler temps through this weekend and into next week
behind the cold front. Daytime highs drop from the upper 80s to
low 90s today and tomorrow into the low to mid 70s by Wednesday.
Overnight lows follow a similar trend going from the upper 60s to
low 70s down into the upper 50s to mid 60s by Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 146 AM EDT Thu Oct 1 2026

Prevailing VFR conds are mostly expected outside of brief periods
of reduced vsbys/cigs invof ABY/VLD. Any restrictions are most
likely MVFR, but IFR cannot be ruled out around sunrise, then
conds improve a couple hrs or so after. Convection is fcst to
focus along the Panhandle coast later this morning and Eastern FL
Big Bend during the aftn, so PROB30s are in place for -TSRA at
ECP/TLH/VLD in the 16-24Z time frame. East to SE winds AOB 10 kts
persist thru the period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 242 AM EDT Thu Oct 1 2026

Coverage of showers and storms will increase through the rest of the
work week and into the weekend. A return to cautionary conditions
appears likely today and Friday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 242 AM EDT Thu Oct 1 2026

Moisture and rain chances will continue to increase dramatically
over the next couple of days. Widespread showers and storms are
expected Friday and into the weekend, with locally heavy rainfall
possible. There are currently no fire weather concerns.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 242 AM EDT Thu Oct 1 2026

Generally, 2 to 4 inches of rain fall are expected across the region
with higher amounts likely as you approach the Gulf Coast. Higher
end guidance is indicating the potential to see 6 to 8 inches along
the coast and into the FL Panhandle. Riverine flooding is not
currently expected, but this could change depending on where the
rain ultimately sets up. Flash flooding will be a concern,
especially for urbanized areas near the Gulf Coast.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   90  73  88  73 /  20  10  50  40
Panama City   86  74  85  73 /  60  30  80  70
Dothan        90  70  88  70 /  20  10  80  50
Albany        91  71  91  71 /   0   0  70  40
Valdosta      91  71  91  72 /  30  20  70  50
Cross City    90  72  89  72 /  60  30  60  60
Apalachicola  84  76  83  75 /  50  50  80  70

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Oliver
LONG TERM....Oliver
AVIATION...IG3
MARINE...Oliver
FIRE WEATHER...Oliver
HYDROLOGY...Oliver