338
FXUS62 KTAE 090622
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
222 AM EDT Thu Oct 9 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1209 AM EDT Thu Oct 9 2025

 - Cooler temperatures are on the way in the wake of today`s cold
   front. Breezy conditions expected this afternoon and on Friday
   with 20 to 30 mph gusts forecast.

 - Hazardous marine conditions expected Thursday and into the
   weekend, boaters should check marine forecasts before
   departing.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1209 AM EDT Thu Oct 9 2025

Main story through this afternoon and tonight will be the approach
of a backdoor cold front. This front, spurred on by surface high
pressure nosing down the eastern seaboard, will bring a relief to
above average temperatures that have been in place for the last
week. In addition to cooler temperatures, the passage of a weak
shortwave aloft at the same time could help with the development
of isolated to scattered showers and maybe a few thunderstorms
as they travel from northeast to southwest. Winds will be light in
the early morning but increase to 10 to 15 mph by the late
morning. Gusts up to 20 to 25 mph are expected, especially in the
late afternoon as the front makes continued progress to the
southwest.

Main challenge this afternoon will be temperatures. As is typical
for northeasterly flow, and the quicker nature of frontal
systems, we did lower temperatures a few degrees below NBM
guidance across our southwest Georgia counties. Additionally low-
level stratus and cloud cover associated with the front should
help keep temperatures lower in these areas.

Cooler temperatures will continue to move in to the area from the
northeast overnight and by Friday morning most locations will be
in upper 50s and low 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 1209 AM EDT Thu Oct 9 2025

Cool northeasterly flow continues Friday and into the early
weekend as the upper level trough moves towards the western
Atlantic. As it does so, a strengthening surface low is forecast
to develop and will help keep cooler and drier north and
northeasterly flow in place. While a few isolated showers
underneath the upper level low are possible Friday, much the
forecast period into next week will remain dry.

Temperatures will begin to warm by the end of the weekend and
into early next week as a large upper level ridge develops across
the Gulf Coast states. While no impactful weather is forecast next
week, the ongoing drought and warming conditions could lead to
elevated fire concerns next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1209 AM EDT Thu Oct 9 2025

VFR conditions continue for the next few hours with mid to upper-
level clouds streaming across the terminals. Stratus with MVFR/IFR
cigs will begin to move in from the NE around 09z, which will impact
ABY, DHN, and VLD. Isolated SHRA will move toward ABY this morning
as a cold front approaches. Cigs may rise late this morning into the
afternoon to MVFR/low-end VFR. Isolated TSRA will develop along the
cold front, potentially impacting ECP, TLH, and VLD with PROB30s in
place this afternoon. NE winds become gusty this afternoon as the
front passes through. Cigs lower to MVFR at ECP, TSRA, and VLD after
00z. If winds decrease enough tonight, some LLWS may be possible at
the terminals.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1209 AM EDT Thu Oct 9 2025

East to northeast winds are forecast to increase to advisory
levels late Thursday into Thursday night in the wake of a cold
front with some gusts to gale force also possible. These breezy
conditions will cause seas to increase as well, especially
offshore, and generally last into the weekend. Conditions are
forecast to gradually improve late weekend into early next week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1209 AM EDT Thu Oct 9 2025

Mainly dry conditions are expected through the end of the week with
chances for wetting rains remaining low to near-zero. The only
chance for rain through the forecast period will be isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms along a front this afternoon and
again on Friday. A backdoor front, from the northeast, moves through
today bringing breezy northeasterly winds. These breezy
northeasterly winds are expected to continue into the weekend and
may create elevated fire weather concerns, although relative
humidities are forecast to remain above critical thresholds. A dry
and warm pattern is likely to set up into next week, potentially
bringing elevated fire weather concerns.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 1209 AM EDT Thu Oct 9 2025

Isolated to scattered showers are possible this afternoon and
lesser coverage is forecast on Friday. However, rainfall amounts
are not forecast to be significant enough to cause any issues and
drought conditions will likely persist.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   83  63  76  63 /  30  10  20  10
Panama City   85  64  79  63 /  20  10  10   0
Dothan        79  60  75  59 /  10  10  10   0
Albany        75  58  74  60 /  20  20  20  10
Valdosta      78  61  74  62 /  30  40  30  10
Cross City    85  66  79  65 /  20  20  30  10
Apalachicola  83  66  78  64 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ early this
     morning for FLZ114-115.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening to 8
     PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ Saturday for GMZ730-751-752-755-765-770-
     772-775.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Dobbs
LONG TERM....Dobbs
AVIATION...Young
MARINE...Dobbs
FIRE WEATHER...Dobbs
HYDROLOGY...Dobbs