529
FXUS62 KTBW 171400
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
1000 AM EDT Tue Jun 17 2025

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 912 AM EDT Tue Jun 17 2025

A quiet start across the peninsula. Much drier air continues to
filter into the area. This morning`s sounding showed PWs around
1.3 inches so not a lot of activity is anticipated today. However,
model guidance brings pockets of higher moisture later this
afternoon and evening along the sea breeze. Southeasterly winds
prevail, which will help the delay the development of storms.
Additionally, very warm and humid conditions in place at the
surface so stay hydrated.

No changes were made to the forecast as it remains on track.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 735 AM EDT Tue Jun 17 2025

VFR conditions with east to southeasterly winds prevailing
this morning. Going into the afternoon, rain chances increase
along the sea breeze in some areas as drier air continues to limit
storm coverage. The highest chances remain across SW FL terminals
during the late afternoon and evening hours. Other areas could
have some activity near by but confidence is not high enough at
this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  93  78  94  79 /  30  40  40  40
FMY  93  75  94  76 /  60  30  40  20
GIF  95  76  95  76 /  40  20  40  10
SRQ  91  76  93  76 /  30  50  40  40
BKV  93  72  95  72 /  30  30  40  30
SPG  91  80  91  79 /  30  50  40  40

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tuesday: 6
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Wednesday: 6

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...Delerme
DECISION SUPPORT...Flannery