582
FXUS62 KTBW 281104
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
704 AM EDT Thu Aug 28 2025

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 659 AM EDT Thu Aug 28 2025

VFR conditions are expected through today outside of any
convection. Small chance for a few showers or storms to pop up
along the sea breeze early afternoon near Tampa Bay area
terminals, but have opted to leave any mention out of the 12Z TAF
because chances look too low before whatever does form shifts
east. Better storm chances (but still not very high) for KLAL and
southwest FL sites and will keep VCTS there. Again, most activity
will shift east of all terminals, but there is a small window when
those sites could get a brief storm.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 315 AM EDT Thu Aug 28 2025

Morning WV imagery depicts continued E CONUS longwave troughing
with ridge axis aloft suppressed to the far southern peninsula and
FL Straits, while at the surface a quasi-stationary boundary
continues to straddle S FL. General setup looks to remain in
place through the weekend into early next week, with shortwave
impulses propagating through the flow rounding the base of the
longwave trough spurring a few surface waves along the boundary
that will act to shift it varying degrees to the north and south
while generally remaining in the vicinity of the N Gulf.

PW values currently between 1.6-1.8 inches per KTBW 28/00Z and
latest ACARS soundings will gradually increase today and Friday
supporting an uptick in rain chances over the area, with mostly
light/variable to W/SW low-mid level flow favoring morning coastal
W FL convection gradually propagating onshore before favoring
interior and E FL locations afternoon into evening. Over the
weekend a stronger impulse as suggested by guidance looks to push
across the SE U.S. and, in conjunction with the lingering boundary
would advect deeper moisture across the peninsula, with PW values
increasing into the 2-2.25 inch range, favoring further increased
rain chances and attendant flooding risk, particularly for Sunday
and Monday as WPC has highlighted much of the area under a
Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall.

A bit more uncertainty over the first half of next week although a
slight decrease in rain chances appears likely, however, rain
chances may diminish a bit further if the surface boundary is
shunted a bit further south of the area allowing drier air to
filter into the peninsula. High temps through the period remain
in the lower to mid 90s today and Friday before dropping a few
degrees into the upper 80s to lower 90s over the weekend into next
week in response to increased cloud cover and rain chances.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 315 AM EDT Thu Aug 28 2025

A lingering frontal boundary will remain over or just north of
the coastal zones through the weekend, allowing rain chances to
gradually increase through the weekend. Despite the proximity of
the front, winds and seas expected to remain light outside of
daily thunderstorms.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 315 AM EDT Thu Aug 28 2025

A lingering frontal boundary will remain in the vicinity through
the weekend with gradually increasing rain chances and scattered
to numerous showers and thunderstorms returning to the forecast
areawide over the weekend. RH values are expected to remain above
critical thresholds with winds remaining light, with no significant
fire weather concerns anticipated.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  93  78  92  78 /  40  20  50  20
FMY  94  76  92  75 /  60  40  70  40
GIF  94  75  93  75 /  60  30  70  20
SRQ  91  75  90  75 /  40  20  50  30
BKV  93  72  91  72 /  50  20  60  20
SPG  89  78  88  77 /  40  20  50  30

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Thursday: 4
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Friday: 4

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$