Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
406 FXUS62 KTBW 040025 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 825 PM EDT Sat Oct 3 2026 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 825 PM EDT Sat Oct 3 2026 - Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop each day this weekend. Rain coverage will become more widespread Monday through Thursday, with higher rainfall totals - Winds over the eastern Gulf waters will remain near 15 knots tonight then will subside on Sunday. Winds will increase again late Tuesday through the rest of the week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 825 PM EDT Sat Oct 3 2026 We did see some scattered convection this afternoon and evening, but overall coverage has been less than what you would normally expect which such deep moisture, precipitable water over 2 inches, southeasterly flow, and warm temperatures. It appears that we are seeing some weak subsidence with the upper level high over the region, along with decent shear between the low levels and upper levels which is limiting the overall convective coverage. For the rest of tonight we`ll continue to see a few showers and possibly a thunderstorm until around midnight, then mostly cloudy skies will prevail through Sunday morning with convection remaining offshore. Have tweaked rain chances down some for early tonight, otherwise remainder of forecast looks ok at this time. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 825 PM EDT Sat Oct 3 2026 A few showers and possibly a thunderstorm will linger until around midnight which could cause some brief MVFR/local IFR conditions. More scattered convection is expected to develop Sunday afternoon and evening which could cause some more MVFR/occasional IFR conditions. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF forecast period. Light east to southeast winds overnight will increase to 6 to 10 knots Sunday morning, then shift to south and southwest during the afternoon. Gusty erratic winds possible in and near any convection. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 206 PM EDT Sat Oct 3 2026 The southerly flow we have seen over the last couple of days will continue. This flow has helped to bring tropical moisture over the state with the PW on this morning sounding once again around 2.35. This is again near record PW for the date. This will bring scattered showers and storms into the forecast through the afternoon and evening hours. Models are keeping this trend in place through the weekend. As we head into early next week a cold front will stall across north Florida. This amazingly will increase our PWs even more. If models are right we could be approaching 2.5 PW early next week. This will lead to cloudy skies and widespread showers with isolated thunderstorms. This front looks to go no where through the week which will keep the cloudy and wet conditions in place. Current forecast is keeping rainfall totals between 1-3 inches for most of us during the week. However we could see totals closer to 4 to 6 inches across the Nature Coast. && .MARINE... Issued at 206 PM EDT Sat Oct 3 2026 Winds will continue to be out of the south and southeast through the weekend. We will also see one more night of increased winds around 15 knots before calming down to around 10 to 15 knots Sunday afternoon. The southerly winds will continue to bring a lot of moisture up from the caribbean resulting in scattered shower and isolated thunderstorms across the Gulf. Shower chances will remain for early next week with winds continuing out of the south and southeast around 5 to 15 knots. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 206 PM EDT Sat Oct 3 2026 Deeper layer moisture in across the state which will bring scattered showers and storms across the state through the middle part of the week. We will not have any major fire weather concern. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 76 89 76 87 / 60 40 40 60 FMY 76 91 76 90 / 30 50 30 40 GIF 75 92 75 90 / 30 50 50 70 SRQ 75 90 76 88 / 60 30 30 50 BKV 73 91 73 89 / 50 50 50 70 SPG 77 88 77 87 / 60 30 30 60 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ UPDATE/AVIATION...Close DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Shiveley DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Oglesby