357
FXUS62 KTBW 140055
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
855 PM EDT Fri Jun 13 2025

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Upper level and surface ridging both remain in place over the state
today, creating a stacked ridge with relatively strong southeasterly
flow. This setup matches Florida Seabreeze Thunderstorm Regime 7,
which requires a south to southeast flow pattern at greater than 10
knots. Regime 7 correlates with a higher chance of precipitation in
the southern portions of our region, and along the west coast of
Florida in general. Those conditions were observed today, as most
activity has occurred in southwest Florida, along with some early
activity around or north of Tampa that dissipated quickly. A likely
reason why thunderstorm activity has struggled to form or persist
this afternoon is the strong southeasterly flow across the state, as
convection has moved too fast along the seabreeze boundary. There is
a potential for more showers or storms to form over the next hours,
but the lack of diurnal heating as night arrives will help quiet
convection down. Looking ahead to tomorrow, current conditions
should persist, and so similar activity to today is possible.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
VFR conditions will mostly prevail through this forecast period, but
over the next few hours, thunderstorms will be present in the
vicinity, and so slight flight restrictions may be in place at some
terminals with the potential for worse conditions. Activity should
quiet down later tonight and remain so through tomorrow morning.
Tomorrow afternoon, showers or thunderstorms are once again likely
along the seabreeze boundary in our area, and we could see parallels
to today`s activity as conditions remain consistent.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Fri Jun 13 2025

A dominant east coast sea breeze will continue to spread well inland
through the remainder of the day with a collision occurring along
the western side of the peninsula so another round of scattered
convection is expected across the region. While precipitation
coverage may be limited somewhat by the influence of ridging aloft,
PWATs ranging from 1.7-1.9 inches and MLCAPE values around 1500-2000
could still support some deeper convection with mainly an isolated
wind threat, though weak deep layer shear values will ultimately
keep activity unorganized but we will still need to monitor for
the development of any stronger cores aloft later today. Any
precipitation across the region should then fizzle out by late
evening over land areas with the loss of diurnal heating and the
remainder of any overnight activity should be focused across the
coastal waters with scattered low-topped showers and a few storms.

Upper level ridging in the SW Atlantic and over the peninsula will
remain in control for the weekend as the surface ridge axis shifts
slightly southward into central Florida. This will maintain the
southeasterly flow regime with precipitation activity mostly
offshore during the overnight and morning hours before increasing in
coverage across the western side of the peninsula during the late
afternoon and evening hours as the sea breezes collide. However,
with a lack of forcing for ascent, weak shear, and poor mid level
lapse rates, most of the activity should be below severe criteria
but can`t completely rule out a couple of stronger gusts with
soundings showing that there should be a good amount of dry air in
the mid levels.

The persistent mid level ridge in the SW Atlantic continues to
dominate into next week as low level southeasterly flow continues
to bring highest rain chances for land areas in the late afternoon
and evening hours. However, it also appears that deeper moisture
will be decreasing somewhat as a wave of Saharan dust drifts near
or over portions of the area, though the positioning of the ridge
will ultimately determine how close our area gets to the higher
dust concentrations. Regardless, there should be at least some
drier air aloft lingering into next week and with a lack of large
scale forcing for ascent still remaining in place, overall
precipitation coverage may be limited. Less precipitation coverage
may also of course support warmer conditions given the potential
for less cloud cover so as geopotential heights gradually rise
into mid week, heat indices may approach advisory criteria at
times towards the end of the forecast period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Fri Jun 13 2025

Southeasterly winds will mostly remain in control over the
weekend and into next week as Atlantic high pressure remains in
control but winds will shift onshore during the afternoon hours
as the sea breeze develops. Wind speeds will primarily remain
around 5-10 kts with seas around 1-2 ft each day but wind speeds
could reach slightly stronger at times. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will also be possible daily, mostly in the overnight
and morning hours before precipitation activity spreads over lands
areas during the afternoon hours.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Fri Jun 13 2025

Abundant moisture across the area will keep minimum RH values well
above critical levels with scattered showers and thunderstorms
during the afternoon and evening hours each day as the sea breeze
develops. Winds will mainly be out of the southeast at 5-10 mph through
the weekend and into next week, though winds will shift onshore
each day with the sea breeze with no fire weather concerns are
expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  78  92  78  92 /  60  40  50  70
FMY  75  92  75  93 /  50  50  30  70
GIF  76  93  75  93 /  60  50  20  70
SRQ  76  91  76  91 /  60  40  50  70
BKV  72  93  72  93 /  60  40  30  70
SPG  78  89  78  90 /  50  40  60  70

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Saturday: 7
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Sunday: 6

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...Poggiali/Davis
DECISION SUPPORT...Hurt
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Fleming/Poggiali