Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
436 FXUS62 KTBW 050018 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 718 PM EST Thu Dec 4 2025 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Gradually warming temperatures into the weekend. - Next round of rain chances for the area expected this weekend. - Cooler temperatures and rain free conditions return early next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 718 PM EST Thu Dec 4 2025 Early evening IR satellite imagery is showing a band of clouds north of Florida associated with a slow moving cold front that will push into the area this weekend. A few light showers are approaching the northern end of the forecast area this evening, and could make their way into the Nature Coast counties overnight, but the slow forward speed of the front will not allow the rain to advance very far south tonight. Winds will turn to southeasterly and southerly after midnight, which could allow for some patchy fog during the early morning hours, mainly over southwest Florida. Mentions of fog were added to the forecast for tonight/early Friday morning for parts of southwest Florida. Otherwise, the forecast looks on track and no significant changes are planned for the evening update. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 718 PM EST Thu Dec 4 2025 VFR conditions should hold through after midnight tonight, then there is a chance of patchy fog developing during the late night and early morning hours, mainly over southwest Florida around KPGD, KFMY, and KRSW, and over the interior around KLAL. VFR conditions should return by around 14z Friday and hold through the rest of the day. && .MARINE... Issued at 1243 PM EST Thu Dec 4 2025 East to southeast winds will become south to southwest Friday through the weekend with no headlines expected. A frontal boundary will then move over the waters Sunday into Monday, with winds turning more northerly and increasing to exercise caution levels. Conditions will improve for Tuesday and beyond. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1243 PM EST Thu Dec 4 2025 No fire weather concerns as relative humidity values will remain above critical levels. Moisture will increase Friday into the weekend ahead of a frontal boundary which will bring a chance for rain and some thunderstorms, especially Sunday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 65 80 69 80 / 0 0 20 20 FMY 64 83 67 83 / 0 0 0 0 GIF 62 85 65 83 / 0 0 10 20 SRQ 63 79 67 81 / 0 0 10 10 BKV 56 82 62 81 / 0 10 30 40 SPG 66 78 70 79 / 0 0 20 20 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ UPDATE/AVIATION...Fleming MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Carlisle