Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
923 FXUS62 KTBW 070557 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 1257 AM EST Sun Dec 7 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... - Areas of dense fog expected early Sunday morning across southwest Florida. - Rain chances increase later today and tonight. - Cooler and drier conditions return early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1224 AM EST Sun Dec 7 2025 A frontal boundary extends across the central Florida peninsula just north of the Sarasota area and has been sinking very slowly south. It should become stationary just south of the Sarasota area in the next couple of hours with boundary layer winds north of the boundary out of the northeast, and to the south of the boundary out of the south. This will be the demarcation between areas of fog developing south of the front by sunrise which will be locally dense, and low clouds/patchy fog north of the boundary. A dense fog advisory may be needed for areas south of the frontal boundary later tonight. The fog/low clouds will lift by mid morning today, however mostly cloudy skies will persist through the afternoon...although skies may become partly cloudy across southwest Florida for several hours before the clouds spread over that region. The frontal boundary across the central peninsula will dissipate today with winds shifting to the south and southeast across the region as a much stronger cold front currently over the southeast U.S. begins to push down across north Florida with an increasing chance of showers and possibly a few thunderstorms mainly across the nature coast. The cold front will push south across the Florida peninsula Sunday night and early Monday. Numerous to widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms will spread across the forecast area ahead of the front. High pressure will build over the Florida peninsula in the wake of the front Monday and Monday night with clearing skies and cooler drier air advecting across the region. The area of high pressure will hold over west central and southwest Florida through mid week with temperatures running near climatic normals with highs in the mid to upper 60s north to the mid 70s south...and lows in the 40s north, lower to mid 50s central, and upper 50s to around 60 south. A gradual warming trend will develop late in the week ahead of the next cold front which is expected to move across the area Friday and Friday night. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1224 AM EST Sun Dec 7 2025 Areas of IFR CIGs are impacting TPA/PIE/LAL...and will likely move over SRQ in the next couple of hours. Patchy fog has begun to develop over southwest Florida with LCL MVFR/IFR VSBYs...and visibilities will likely be on the decline through the early morning hours along with IFR CIGs developing with LCL LIFR CIGs/VSBYs, with the highest likelihood impacting PGD. The fog/low ceilings are expected to lift at all terminals by mid morning...with LCL MVFR CIGs persisting potentially into the early afternoon hours at TPA/PIE/LAL before becoming VFR CIGs. && .MARINE... Issued at 1224 AM EST Sun Dec 7 2025 A cold front will push across the waters late today and tonight with showers and isolated thunderstorms spreading over the region from north to south. Winds will shift to the north/northwest in the wake of the front Monday and Monday night and will increase to cautionary levels. Winds/seas will subside Tuesday and Tuesday night. High pressure will hold over the waters through mid week with no headlines expected. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1224 AM EST Sun Dec 7 2025 No fire weather hazards are expected as sufficient moisture will keep minimum afternoon relative humidity values well above critical levels today and into early next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 80 68 77 55 / 60 80 30 0 FMY 84 70 80 58 / 20 50 50 0 GIF 83 67 77 54 / 50 80 40 0 SRQ 81 67 77 54 / 50 80 50 0 BKV 80 60 75 46 / 60 90 30 0 SPG 78 69 75 57 / 60 80 40 0 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Oglesby DECISION SUPPORT...Oglesby UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Oglesby