Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 171127

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
727 AM EDT Sat Mar 17 2018

VFR conditions expected through the period with light winds and an
afternoon onshore seabreeze.


.Prev Discussion... /issued 314 AM EDT Sat Mar 17 2018/

SHORT TERM (Today-Sunday)...
Benign weekend weather areawide with zonal flow aloft today
then slight upper ridging Sunday. Dry atmosphere to slowly
moisten but expect mostly sunny daytime skies and clear
night. Weak high pressure over the region to move into the
W Atlantic Sunday with low level flow becoming southerly.
Temperatures to warm to seasonal averages today with light
winds then a few degrees above normal Sunday.

LONG TERM (Sunday Night through Friday)...
By the end of the weekend, weak ridging aloft of Florida
will shift east as a shortwave digs into the southern and
central plains. At the surface, a strong low pressure system
developing beneath the shortwave will gradually slide east
into the southern Mississippi River Valley. Southwesterly
low level flow ahead of this system will advect abundant
atmospheric moisture into northern Florida, with isolated to
scattered showers and a few thunderstorms possible Sunday
night and Monday, mainly over the Nature Coast. Temperatures
will remain slightly above normal Monday and Tuesday.

A stronger shortwave behind the first one will dig farther
south into the northern Gulf Coast and northeastern Gulf of
Mexico Tuesday and Tuesday night. This will allow a more
organized surface low to develop north of Florida, dragging
a cold front through the eastern Gulf and Florida Peninsula
Tuesday night and Wednesday. Chances for showers and
thunderstorms ahead of this front will begin to increase
Monday night north of Interstate 4, with the highest rain
chances expected on Tuesday for most of the area. Rain
chances will clear out from north to south by Tuesday night,
with breezy west to northwest winds behind the front
continuing through Wednesday night as surface high pressure
fills in from the west. Cooler and drier air will also
advect into the region, with below normal temperatures
expected Wednesday through Friday under mostly clear skies.

SCT cirrus and VFR conditions expected today into tonight
with light winds and an afternoon Gulf seabreeze.

Weak high pressure over the region will keep light winds and
slight seas over the E Gulf waters this weekend into Monday.
A cold front will move over the region with increasing SW
winds and seas Tuesday ahead of the front along with rain
chances. Strong high pressure building into the region will
produce hazardous NW winds and elevated seas Wednesday into

Last very dry day with long durations of low RHs over interior
locations. High ERC values to produce red flag conditions in
Polk County. Increasing moisture Sunday into early next week
to prevent fire weather issues.


.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  76  62  78  65 /   0  10  10  10
FMY  80  61  81  64 /   0   0  10  10
GIF  82  58  84  62 /   0  10   0  10
SRQ  73  61  75  64 /   0  10  10  10
BKV  79  56  80  61 /   0  10  10  10
SPG  76  62  79  64 /   0  10   0  10


FL...Red Flag Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 PM EDT this
     evening for Polk.

Gulf waters...None.


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