Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 261843
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
243 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2019

...Record High Temperatures Possible Today...
...High Heat Indices Today...

.DISCUSSION...
A broad upper high ridge continues to ridge west from the Bahamas, over
Florida and into the Gulf of Mexico. An inverted upper trough
pushes westward through the Gulf of Mexico and southeast U.S.
on Thursday and Friday causing a split in the ridge with ridging
remaining between the Bahamas and Bermuda and out west near
Texas. Upper ridging becomes the dominant feature once again
by Sunday afternoon and into the beginning of next week as
the inverted upper trough moves westward over eastern Mexico
and Texas.

On the surface, the high pressure center that has been centered over
the eastern gulf is starting to slowly move north. But before this
happens, we can expect one more day of excessive heat today with
record high temps possible and very high heat indices. This has
warranted the issuance of a heat advisory for central and southwest
Florida from Hernando County southward with heat indices between 108-
110 degrees this afternoon. If you work or plan to be outdoors
today, drink plenty of water to stay hydrated and stay in the shade
if at all possible.

The good news is that we will see a slight cool down to end the work
week as a trough of low pressure moves across the state on Thursday
and Friday. This will bring increased moisture, more cloud cover and
higher rain chances (40-80% POPs) to close out the work week. With
higher rain chances and cloud cover, temperatures will cool down
slightly from the mid to upper 90`s to around average in the upper
80`s to low 90`s. As the wave moves west, high pressure to the
northeast off the Carolina coastline becomes the dominant feature on
Saturday and Sunday which will bring in easterly winds across the
peninsula. Continued high POPs during each afternoon can be expected
with showers/storms forming over the east coast and transiting
westward colliding with the west coast sea breeze. Numerous showers
and storms can be expected each afternoon with some strong storms
possible. High pressure builds over the eastern gulf by Monday next
week which will start the transition to more of a west-northwest
flow. This will allow for early showers/storms along the west coast
of Florida then transiting eastward through the day.

&&

.AVIATION...
Overall VFR conditions expected through the period. Will hold VCTS
at all terminals after 20Z with some possible brief periods of MVFR
for low CIGs and VSBY in passing storms. Winds remain northerly
early period, turning east-northeast after 00Z remaining less than
10 knots. No other aviation impacts expected.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure in the Gulf of Mexico will keep pleasant weather with
north-northwest winds around 10 knots over the coastal waters for
today. A trough of low pressure moves over southern Florida by
Thursday bringing a shift in the winds to the east and increasing
rain chances on Thursday and Friday. As the wave moves farther west
into the gulf, high pressure builds to the northeast of Florida
keeping an easterly flow over the area. This will produce sea breeze
showers and storms over the east coast early afternoon and will move
westward through the day with the highest coverage over the coastal
waters late afternoon through the evening hours. Higher winds and
seas will be possible near any storms, otherwise no headlines are
expected.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
High pressure over Florida is producing sunny skies and north-
northwest wind flow across the Florida peninsula for today.
Scattered showers and storms will be possible south of Tampa bay
today with increasing chances later in the week and into the
weekend. With increasing rain chances and high RH values, no fire
weather hazards are expected.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  79  94  77  92 /  40  40  40  80
FMY  76  94  75  91 /  10  50  60  80
GIF  76  95  75  91 /  20  40  20  80
SRQ  77  94  75  92 /  40  40  50  80
BKV  72  95  72  92 /  40  30  30  80
SPG  80  94  79  92 /  40  40  40  80

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for Coastal
     Charlotte-Coastal Hernando-Coastal Hillsborough-
     Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee-Coastal Pasco-Coastal
     Sarasota-DeSoto-Hardee-Highlands-Inland Charlotte-
     Inland Hernando-Inland Hillsborough-Inland Lee-Inland
     Manatee-Inland Pasco-Inland Sarasota-Pinellas-Polk.

Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...74/Wynn
DECISION SUPPORT...25/Davis


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