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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
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649 FXUS62 KTBW 261838 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 238 PM EDT Fri Jul 26 2024 .DISCUSSION... Mid/upper-level high pressure remains over the region this afternoon with a trough swinging through the northeast U.S. and surface high pressure extending across the peninsula. Overall light wind flow today will lead to additional convection developing along the sea breeze boundary collision over the interior and then slowly drifting back westward through the rest of the evening. For Saturday and Sunday, high pressure aloft shifts west as troughing moves over the Atlantic. A surface boundary will move into northern Florida, pushing the Atlantic ridge axis farther south. A bit of a complicated setup, but add in higher moisture and we should see increased storm activity both days. Global models continue to indicate troughing continuing over the state into early next week with a relatively weak surface pattern. Higher moisture is also forecast to remain and all of this supports a forecast of continued higher rain chances, with storms dominated by sea breeze and outflow boundaries due to the lack of steering flow. The Atlantic ridge axis then builds back in for Wednesday through the end of the week, with a southeast flow pattern returning. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Thunderstorms will be possible for all sites through the rest of the day, likely lingering after 00Z. No concerns overnight, then another round of storms is expected tomorrow afternoon. && .MARINE... Fairly light southeast to south winds will continue through the weekend with a turn onshore each afternoon as the sea breeze develops. No headlines are expected, though scattered thunderstorms are possible each day. && .FIRE WEATHER... No fire weather concerns as relative humidity values will remain above critical levels. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 78 91 78 92 / 40 70 40 70 FMY 77 94 78 94 / 50 60 20 60 GIF 76 95 76 94 / 50 70 30 70 SRQ 77 93 77 93 / 40 70 40 70 BKV 74 94 74 93 / 40 70 40 70 SPG 81 92 81 93 / 40 70 50 70 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Saturday: 6 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Sunday: 1 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ 05/Carlisle