Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 272321
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
721 PM EDT Sat May 27 2023

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 718 PM EDT Sat May 27 2023

A beautiful Florida evening! Unseasonably low humidity across the
area with temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s makes for the
perfect evening to get out and enjoy the mild weather. Look for
overnight lows to fall into the middle 50s along the Nature Coast
and into the lower to middle 60s south of I-4. Pleasant
conditions are expected again on Sunday with highs a couple
degrees warmer than today (middle to upper 80s) and RH values in
the 40-50% range. Hopefully you have the opportunity to get
outside and take advantage of the beautiful weather this holiday
weekend!

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 718 PM EDT Sat May 27 2023

VFR conditions expected through the period. Northwesterly winds this
evening will diminish and turn NE overnight. Winds will then
increase slightly and turn back out of the NW on Sunday morning
through the daytime hours.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 137 PM EDT Sat May 27 2023

The area of low pressure continues to lift out away from the area
today, with drier and cooler air in place across the local area.
Weak ridging will continue to build in and keep the drier
conditions into Tuesday, with N/NE flow turning to the NW each
afternoon with the sea breeze. Moisture then returns Wednesday
through the end of the week as an area of low pressure develops
over the northwestern Gulf from an upper shortwave. This moisture
and energy will bring increasing rain chances for the end of the
week, up to 80% Thursday and Friday.

Highs will be slowly warming over the next few days, with mid to
upper 80s this afternoon to the lower to mid 90s by Wednesday, and
then dropping back to around 90 for the end of the week as the
rain chances increase. Lows also gradually warm from the upper 50s
to lower 70s tonight to the mid 60s to lower 70s by Wednesday
morning and then upper 60s to mid 70s through the rest of the
period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  66  84  68  88 /   0   0   0  10
FMY  68  89  69  90 /   0  10  10  20
GIF  65  87  66  89 /   0  10   0  10
SRQ  65  87  67  90 /   0   0   0  10
BKV  57  85  60  89 /   0   0   0  10
SPG  70  83  72  87 /   0   0   0  10

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Sunday: 4
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Monday: 4

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...ADavis
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...Hubbard
DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Hurt


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