Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
047 FXUS62 KTBW 070652 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 252 AM EDT Mon Oct 7 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 245 AM EDT Mon Oct 7 2024 Deep tropical moisture continues across the area this morning leading to another day with scattered to numerous showers and a few embedded thunderstorms across the region as a weak frontal boundary remains draped across the peninsula. This setup will persist into Tuesday while the boundary slowly sinks south, which unfortunately will compound the issues ahead of Hurricane Milton. As of the 2 AM intermediate advisory, Milton continues strengthening over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico, currently with 90 mph maximum sustained winds. It is expected continue strengthening...likely at a rapid pace today and Tuesday...into a powerful major hurricane as it moves E-NE across the Gulf of Mexico, approaching the West Florida coast on Wednesday bringing life-threatening impacts across much of the coast as well as inland areas. Here are the key points: * Milton is forecast to quickly intensify while it moves E to NE across the Gulf and will be a major hurricane when it approaches the west coast of Florida mid-week. It is important not focus on the exact track as there remains significant uncertainty in the eventual track and intensity. * There is an increasing risk for life-threatening storm surge and wind impacts beginning late Tuesday into Wednesday. Storm surge and hurricane watches will be required this morning. * Areas of heavy rainfall will continue to impact the area prior to Milton`s arrival, bringing the risk of flash, urban, and areal flooding along with the potential of moderate to major river flooding. Milton`s mid-week passage across the area will exacerbate those concerns. Conditions are expected to improve in the wake of Milton once it exits the area late Wednesday into Thursday. A strong gradient will remain across the area for a couple more days, maintaining breezy conditions while a drier and much more stable pattern settles across the region late week into the weekend, offering at least a couple milder mornings (and overnight periods) following a very difficult week for the region. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 139 AM EDT Mon Oct 7 2024 IFR conditions continue at most terminals this morning with cigs 5-9 kft and the possibility of periods of MVFR vsbys with intermittent areas of rain as deep moisture interacts with a weak boundary across the area. These conditions are likely to persist through much of the day with a few windows of MVFR cigs possible this afternoon, however for now kept IFR due to lower confidence on probability and timing. E-NE winds expected through the period, generally 8-12 knots with gusts in the 15-20 knot range at times. && .MARINE... Issued at 245 AM EDT Mon Oct 7 2024 Showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue across coastal waters over the next couple days as an unsettled pattern remains in place, with occasional locally hazardous winds and seas in the vicinity. Conditions will deteriorate by mid-week as Hurricane Milton approaches the coast. Life-threatening winds and seas are expected across coastal waters and into bays and harbors as the storm moves through. Even in the wake of the storm, a strong gradient will keep winds elevated in the 20- to 30-knot range through Friday before improving more significantly over the weekend. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 245 AM EDT Mon Oct 7 2024 Overall fire concerns remain at a minimum as showers and storms will continue over the next couple days before conditions deteriorate further during mid-week as Milton moves across the peninsula. Thereafter, drier weather and quieter conditions will settle into the area. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 80 73 84 74 / 60 30 40 60 FMY 83 74 85 76 / 90 60 50 60 GIF 80 73 84 75 / 70 50 50 60 SRQ 81 73 83 73 / 70 40 50 60 BKV 80 71 85 73 / 60 20 40 50 SPG 81 76 84 77 / 60 30 40 60 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Flood Watch through Thursday morning for Coastal Charlotte- Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando-Coastal Hillsborough- Coastal Lee-Coastal Levy-Coastal Manatee-Coastal Pasco- Coastal Sarasota-DeSoto-Hardee-Highlands-Inland Charlotte- Inland Citrus-Inland Hernando-Inland Hillsborough-Inland Lee-Inland Levy-Inland Manatee-Inland Pasco-Inland Sarasota- Pinellas-Polk-Sumter. Gulf waters...None. && $$ DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Hurt DECISION SUPPORT...Oglesby/Close UPPER AIR...Oglesby