Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 270832

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
432 AM EDT Fri May 27 2022

A few relatively weak showers and storms developing along the
southwest coast this morning. This trend is expected to continue
through today with storms becoming more widespread, as upper
level trough and associated front move across the Sunshine State.
There is some uncertainty with the timing of the storms with most
of the guidance shows upper level support exiting the area by the
late morning hours, while the main front falls apart as it travels
south. At this time, highest chances for rain and thunderstorms
should be through mid day, however, additional storms could
develop as the main front passes through the area into the
afternoon and evening hours. There is a chance for some stronger
storms, especially in the early afternoon hours. The main concern
with these will be potentially damaging winds.

Through the weekend, high pressure builds from the west and
slightly drier conditions will try to push southwards on Saturday,
but will likely be pushed out of the area later on Sunday, as winds
shift from the northeast to east by the evening hours.
Afternoon temperatures in the 90s and overnight lows in the 70s
expected during this time.

Early next week, model guidance continue to hint at an upper
level disturbance approaching the area potentially supporting
additional showers and thunderstorms. Warm temperatures, humid and
unfordable conditions prevail through the end of the period.


VFR/MVFR conditions expected through the period with some
intermittent lower visibilities as showers and storms move across
the area today. Southerly winds prevailing early, before becoming
westerly and breezy into the late morning and early afternoon.
There is a chance for showers to return during the late evening
hours, as front slowly makes its way south.


Approaching low pressure system will support showers and
thunderstorms through today with occasionally gusty winds.
Southerly winds prevail during this time, but become westerly into
the weekend. High pressure builds into the Gulf waters through the
weekend and a sea breeze pattern returns. Another storm system
could develop into early next week bringing additional rain
chances to the area.


Approaching low pressure system is expected to support showers
and storms with prevailing southerly winds through today. In
addition, high dispersions will be in place today. Then, slightly
drier conditions try to push in behind the front on Saturday, but
will struggle to make it south of the I-4 corridor. Winds become
more westerly into Sunday before shift to east thereafter. Rain
chances increase aid by an upper level disturbance during the
first half of next week. Humidity values should remain well above
any critical levels through the period. This combined with the
lack of winds will keep any fire weather concerns out of the area
during this time.


.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  89  77  90  75 /  60  50  20  10
FMY  91  75  90  74 /  20  30  50  20
GIF  92  73  91  71 /  60  40  40  10
SRQ  88  74  88  72 /  40  40  20  10
BKV  89  68  90  66 /  70  40  10   0
SPG  86  76  87  76 /  50  50  20  10


Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Today: 5
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tomorrow: 5

For Additional Information On Sea Breeze Regimes go to


Gulf waters...None.


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