Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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000
FXUS62 KTBW 280830
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
330 AM EST Wed Feb 28 2024

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 330 AM EST Wed Feb 28 2024

Surface high pressure will ridge from the Atlantic across the Florida
Peninsula today and into tonight, with mostly sunny skies allowing
temperatures to continue to warm slightly. Tonight into Thursday, a
deep trough will swing through the eastern US, pulling a weak
cold front into the Florida Peninsula and stalling out through the
end of the week. Some patchy/areas of fog will be possible in the
deeper moisture ahead of the front Thursday morning. The front
will allow temperatures to drop a few degrees over the Nature
Coast on Thursday, but central and southern parts of the forecast
area are not forecast to see any dip in temperatures.

A shortwave trough will eject out of the Central Plains into the
Midwest on Friday, pulling the frontal boundary back north across
the forecast area Friday. As the front lingers north of the area
through the weekend and early next week, modest moisture pooling
to the south of the front will allow for daily chances of showers
and thunderstorms. Temperatures will remain warm with afternoon
highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s, and morning lows in the upper
50s to mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 330 AM EST Wed Feb 28 2024

VFR conditions will hold today. Areas of fog will be possible
after midnight tonight, potentially causing periods of reduced
flight categories early Thursday morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 330 AM EST Wed Feb 28 2024

High pressure will continue to ridge across the waters from the
Atlantic today and into tonight with southerly to southeasterly
winds less than 15 knots. A weak cold front will push into the
waters Wednesday night, bringing winds up to near exercise caution
levels at time Thursday and Thursday night as the front stalls
across the waters. Another front will approach the area this
weekend, bringing chances of showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 330 AM EST Wed Feb 28 2024

Increasing atmospheric moisture today and Thursday will prevent
relative humidity from dropping to critically low levels. Spotty
high dispersion indices will be possible this afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  80  64  78  64 /   0   0   0   0
FMY  82  64  83  65 /   0   0   0   0
GIF  84  62  78  63 /   0   0   0  10
SRQ  80  62  81  63 /   0   0   0   0
BKV  82  57  78  58 /   0   0   0   0
SPG  75  64  76  65 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

Fleming


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