875
FXUS62 KTBW 201836
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
236 PM EDT Sun Sep 20 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 234 PM EDT Sun Sep 20 2026

- Scattered to numerous afternoon showers and storms. A few storms
may be strong with damaging wind gusts and hail.

- A summertime pattern will continue through mid week. Potential
  for some drier air by late in the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 234 PM EDT Sun Sep 20 2026

Looking at satellite you can clearly see the upper level low
spinning right over the Tampa Bay Area. This upper level low will
slowly drift northeasterly through Tuesday. This will keep our
wind flow out of the east and southeast. This will favor storms
inland during the afternoon hours and closer to the coast in the
late afternoon and evening hours.

By Wednesday the upper level low will be heading up to the Northeast
coast. As it does so we will enter a more neutral flow regime
with very light winds aloft. With this regime storms favor more
inland areas however we will still see some storm heading towards
the coast thanks to outflow boundaries in the evening hours.

As we head into the end of the week and into weekend we will see an
interesting pattern in the upper level up in the northeast. Two
upper level lows start to interact resulting in a Fujiwara
effect. How does this effect our weather? It helps to bring upper
level troughing over the area and to bring a cold front through
late in the day on Thursday. This will switch our winds out of the
north and bringing much drier air. This will keep shower chances
down and bring some slightly cooler air especially in the morning.
Areas across the Nature Coast could see lows in the mid to upper
60`s Saturday morning.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 234 PM EDT Sun Sep 20 2026

Storms along the I-4 corridor will once again mainly be in the
evening hours thanks to easterly flow aloft. SW Florida will be
have more of a southerly flow so timing of storms will be the
late afternoon and evening hours. VFR conditions and light winds
expected outside of thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 234 PM EDT Sun Sep 20 2026

Winds will remain light through the middle of next week
out of the east and northeast around 5 to 10 knots. Scattered shower
chances will be possible each day. A cold front will start to
approach the area on Thursday switching our winds more northeasterly
and picking them up to 15 to 20 knots.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 234 PM EDT Sun Sep 20 2026

Deeper layer moisture in across the state which will bring
scattered showers and storms across the state through the middle
part of the week. We will not have any major fire weather concern.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  89  74  89  75 /  40  20  50  20
FMY  89  74  89  75 /  60  20  50  40
GIF  90  73  90  73 /  40  20  70  30
SRQ  89  74  90  74 /  50  30  50  40
BKV  90  71  91  72 /  40  30  60  20
SPG  88  76  88  76 /  40  30  40  30

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Monday: 6
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tuesday: 6

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Shiveley
DECISION SUPPORT...Wynn
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Wynn