234
FXUS64 KTSA 030108
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
808 PM CDT Tue Sep 2 2025

...New SHORT TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025

 - Cold front passes Wed. night - Thursday with a chance of
   showers and storms.

 - A stronger cold front passes on Friday with temps well below
   normal by the weekend. Showers and storms Friday through Friday
   night with a clearing trend on Saturday.

 - Daily rain chances continue into early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of tonight)
Issued at 805 PM CDT Tue Sep 2 2025

Showers and thunderstorms are winding down, and should completely
diminish over the next few hours. Skies will clear out overnight,
but this clearing may result in patchy fog across the area,
particularly in areas that had meaningful rain today. If this
occurs, locally reduced visibility could result in travel
concerns. Low temperatures will range from the upper 50s in the
north to the mid 60s in the south.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Tuesday)
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Tue Sep 2 2025

Dry and warm conditions expected on Wednesday ahead of the next
cold front which passes Wednesday night into Thursday. A corridor
of showers and storms are likely to develop across south central
Plains by late afternoon and spread east southeast through the
evening. Pre frontal instability will quickly wane after sunset
and storms are likely to be on a weakening trend as they spread
into portions northeast Oklahoma during the evening. A short
window may remain for a few stronger storms but widespread severe
weather is unlikely.

A brief dry period expected on Thursday ahead of a stronger cold
front which moves into the region on Friday and clears the
forecast area early Saturday. A notable temp gradient is
expected on Friday across the region with temps ranging from the
mid 70s to lower 90s. Showers and storms likely develop along the
boundary by late afternoon or evening and expand in coverage
during the evening into overnight hours. Current timing has a
clearing trend from north to south during the day Saturday.

Post frontal temps well below normal are forecast to persist into
early next week. Forecast uncertainty increases by early next week
especially with regards to precip chances and potential heavy
rainfall. Temps at or below normal and daily rain chances do
appear likely to continue well into next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 546 PM CDT Tue Sep 2 2025

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will diminish by 03Z
this evening. Brief heavy rain, lightning, and gusty winds may
occur under any storms, with a 20-30% chance of impacting
terminals across northwest AR and southeast OK. Skies will clear
overnight, but areas of fog may develop late overnight. The most
likely location will be across east-central OK into northwest AR
with visibility down to 1-2 SM. Light west to northwest winds
will be present through the TAF period, beginning to shift to
southwest late Wednesday afternoon or evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   63  86  65  83 /  10   0  20   0
FSM   68  88  67  90 /  20   0  10   0
MLC   64  85  65  87 /  20   0   0   0
BVO   58  85  60  81 /  10   0  30   0
FYV   60  85  62  84 /  20   0  20   0
BYV   61  85  62  82 /  20   0  30   0
MKO   64  85  64  85 /  20   0  10   0
MIO   60  84  61  82 /  20   0  40   0
F10   62  84  63  85 /  10   0  10   0
HHW   66  84  64  90 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...06