273
FXUS64 KTSA 281753
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1153 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1148 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

 - The next storm system arrives this evening into Saturday
   bringing strong winds, rain, and a slight chance of
   thunderstorms.

 - Very cold temperatures Sunday through Tuesday morning. There
   will be a slight chance of snow for northern areas and a wintry
   mix for southern areas on Monday. Low chance of minor impacts,
   mainly across NW AR.

 - Temperatures warm somewhat into the middle of next week before
   a dry cold front arrives. Dry conditions expected much of next
   week.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Saturday Night)
Issued at 1148 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

Active weather returns to the region today and tonight as high
pressure moves off to the east and a pair of upper level
disturbances arrive from the west. As this occurs, pressure
gradients tighten leading to increasing southerly winds gusting to
20-30 mph by late afternoon or evening. With the help of a strong
low level jet, rain chances increase substantially this evening
and overnight for much of the area. Highest moisture and resultant
weak instability will reside across SE OK into NW AR, and this is
where low thunderstorm chances will also develop. With expansive
cloud cover and precipitation, low temperatures will be warmer
than previous nights, generally in the upper 30s to mid 40s.
Interestingly, a couple models suggest evaporative cooling/ wet-
bulbing effects could allow some wintry precip to momentarily mix
in with the heaviest precipitation tonight across NW AR. No
impacts are expected in this scenario as ground and surrounding
environment temperatures remain too warm, but would not be totally
surprised if there were a couple reports of mixed precip types
overnight. Winds remain gusty through the overnight hours.

Rain and thunder potential continues into Saturday morning, but
will become increasingly confined to far E OK and NW AR. During
the afternoon, the upper level system will begin to depart,
sending a strong cold front through the area and putting an end to
precipitation. While rain tonight/ Saturday morning could be
moderate to heavy at times, rainfall amounts are expected to
remain low enough to preclude flood concerns. QPF for most areas
will remain less than an inch, especially in north and west parts
of the FA where even half an inch will be difficult to achieve.

Winds ahead of and behind the front will become quite strong...
approaching advisory criteria overnight tonight through Saturday
afternoon. Given the marginal nature and lingering uncertainty,
will hold off issuing for now. But if these higher wind speeds
appear more favored, a Wind Advisory may become required. Winds
decrease some going into Saturday night, but will likely remain
breezy out of the N-NW. With much colder air advecting into the
region, this will allow wind chills to fall well into the teens
late Saturday night and Sunday morning, especially near the KS and
MO borders.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 1148 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

Post-frontal high pressure will keep conditions dry on Sunday,
but high temperatures will be much colder than previous days...
likely remaining in the lower-mid 30s north of I-40 and upper 30s
to lower 40s across the south. Winds decrease during the day, but
will likely still hold wind chills in the 20s or 30s during the
afternoon. Clouds begin to increase Sunday night as the next, well
advertised storm approaches the region for Monday.

Latest data continues to support the idea of a progressive,
lower- impact storm affecting the area Monday and early Monday
night. The current forecast reflects low snow/ wintry mix chances
along and north of I-40, and low rain or freezing chances across
SE OK. Guidance continues to vary with the specifics, but overall,
widespread impacts are not expected at this time. Snow
accumulations are currently forecast to remain less than a few
tenths of an inch across NE OK and less than 1 inch in NW AR.
However, if some of the more aggressive solutions were to verify,
portions of NW AR could see an inch or greater, with at least
minor impacts possible. Across SE OK and W-Central AR, there is
less certainty with precip type and potential accumulations.
Models continue to disagree with the depth and extent of cold air
here, with some solutions keeping precipitation as pure rain and
others indicating a wintry mix with icing potential. Better
moisture is projected to surge northward just east of the CWA,
potentially clipping SE OK and W-Central AR. As a result, more
meaningful accumulations could develop here if the colder air and
moisture were to overlap. Still, even the worst case scenarios
offered right now would only result in minor impacts. Will
continue with the theme of a wintry mix across these areas with
light snow/ ice accumulations for now.

Following this storm system, dry conditions are forecast through
much of next week. Temperatures gradually moderate into the 40s
and lower 50s through mid week before a dry cold front brings
another surge of cooler air, dropping temperatures back down a few
degrees. By late week, another trough attempts to influence the
region with low rain chances returning.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1130 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

VFR conditions will prevail through the afternoon with an increase
in mid clouds from west to east, along with a gradual increase in
wind speeds from the south-southeast. Conditions will begin to
deteriorate by this evening and especially tonight with a surge of
low level moisture ahead of an approaching storm system, This
results in lowering ceilings and development of fairly widespread
showers, along with low thunderstorm probabilities at KMLC/KFSM.
Winds during this period will further increase and become rather
gusty from the south and the development of LLWS for much for he
area, NW AR in particular near 12z. IFR conditions will become
more common later in the forecast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   46  54  25  36 /  60  70   0   0
FSM   43  51  28  41 /  90  90  10   0
MLC   45  56  27  41 /  80  80  10   0
BVO   43  52  22  35 /  50  80   0   0
FYV   40  49  23  36 /  90  80  10   0
BYV   40  48  23  34 /  90  90  10   0
MKO   44  53  25  37 /  80  80   0   0
MIO   43  49  23  33 /  80  90   0   0
F10   45  56  25  36 /  70  70   0   0
HHW   43  57  28  44 /  80  80  10   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...43
LONG TERM....43
AVIATION...14