906
FXUS64 KTSA 150206
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
906 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

...New SHORT TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 348 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

  - Odds lean toward another storm complex tonight. But as
    each round of storms changes the setup for the next round
    confidence is not high on the details.

  - Flooding will be possible along the track of the storm
    complex tonight and Sunday morning.  A Flood Watch for
    parts of eastern Oklahoma has been issued. Since confidence
    on details is not high, monitor the latest information
    on changes to the flooding potential.

  - The chance for nighttime complexes diminishes next week, but
    a weather system moving through the area will bring increased
    storms chances from Tuesday night into Wednesday.

  - Hot and humid conditions are likely the later half of next
    week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of tonight)
Issued at 906 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Scattered thunderstorm development is underway across parts of
north central and northeast Oklahoma this evening. This activity
is still expected to increase in coverage throughout the rest of
the evening hours as a modest (~35 knot) low level jet pick up
atop a warm front planted over northern Oklahoma. As storms
increase in coverage, it is expected that another convective
complex will take shape and begin to accelerate to the south
southeast through eastern Oklahoma, with the eastern fringes of
the complex impinging on northwest Arkansas. The environment
across much of eastern Oklahoma was worked over pretty good from
activity this morning and early afternoon, with limited recovery
noted across the region at this hour. This should severe to limit
the severe potential somewhat across eastern Oklahoma, though a
damaging wind threat could still evolve as convectively driven
cold pools become more organized during the overnight hours. A
limited tornado threat will also exist for a brief period with
initial storms near the warm frontal boundary. In addition to the
severe threat, a heavy rain and flooding threat will evolve once
again tonight as storms redevelop and train over much of the same
areas that have seen heavy rain in recent days. Tropical like
moisture will lead to efficient rain producing storms with high
rain rates. Antecedent conditions will support rapid runoff and
with area creeks and streams already running high, it won`t take
much to see an increased flash flooding risk where the heaviest
rains fall. Have opted to expand the Flood Watch eastward as where
trends suggest the heaviest rain will fall through the overnight
hours.

For the rest of the update tonight, have adjusted PoPs to match
latest trends and guidance as well as some minor adjustments to
temperatures for tonight.

Bowlan

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Saturday)
Issued at 237 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Remnants of what develops tonight will move across the area Sunday and weaken
with time.  There is some low potential for a storm complex Sunday night, but the
probabilities are not too high.  Nighttime complex potential will drop early
next week, but the chance for storms will tick up from Tuesday evening into
Wednesday evening as tough aloft passes and forces a front into or close to
northeast Oklahoma. If the front does not make it, outflows will for a time.
Following this system heights will rise over the area and heat will build.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 640 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Today`s MCS has finally weakened and pushed out of our CWA this
evening, with VFR conditions at all sites to begin this forecast
period. Next round of convection expected late this evening over
north central Oklahoma, will have potential to impact nern OK sites,
and then spread south and east toward other sites overnight. Still
quite a bit of uncertainty regarding this scenario playing out. MVFR
CIGS and fog Sunday morning most sites, with MVFR CIGS continuing
into midday/early afternoon before becoming VFR late. Convective
potential increases again Sunday afternoon, but given the uncertainty
of mesoscale boundary placement to focus development as well as
other factors, have opted not to include PROB30 groups across the
board at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   68  83  69  88 /  70  40  30  10
FSM   69  88  72  89 /  50  40  20  40
MLC   68  86  69  89 /  60  50  20  30
BVO   67  82  67  87 /  60  40  30  10
FYV   66  83  67  86 /  70  50  30  30
BYV   67  84  67  84 /  50  50  30  40
MKO   67  85  69  87 /  70  50  20  20
MIO   68  83  68  86 /  50  50  30  20
F10   67  86  68  89 /  70  50  20  20
HHW   70  86  70  87 /  10  40  20  30

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for OKZ054>056-059>061-
     064>067-070-071.

AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...69