957
FXUS64 KTSA 242321
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
521 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 520 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

  - Light rain, drizzle, and patchy fog lingers into tonight for
    portions of the forecast area, especially north of I-40.

  - Strong and dry cold front on Tuesday afternoon will drop
    temperatures slightly below average through the rest of the
    week.

  - Cooler and wetter weather pattern arrives Friday night and
    into the upcoming weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight)
Issued at 1145 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

Most of the moderate to heavy rain has now shifted south and east
of the forecast area. Total rainfall amounts over the past 12-24
hours vary, especially from north to south. Highest amounts fell
across far southeast OK, near the Red River, generally 1 to 2
inches (locally higher amounts). Meanwhile, locations near the
OK/KS and MO/AR borders received the least amount of rain,
generally a tenth to a quarter of an inch. GOES-19 water vapor
imagery shows the center of the upper low over southwest KS and a
pronounced mid-level dry slot beginning to make its way into
eastern OK. The upper-level low opens up as a wave and will slide
across the OK/KS border this afternoon and push east of the area
tonight. Light rain showers and/or drizzle remain possible near
the center of the wave and on its backside this afternoon and into
tonight, but QPF amounts will stay light.

Lingering light rain and drizzle are expected to persist across
far northeast OK and far northwest AR late tonight and into the
overnight hours as the upper-level trough begins to exit the area.
Surface low pressure will slide east of the area late tonight and
drags a weak cold front through the morning Tuesday. Skies will
remain mostly cloudy to overcast through the night. Despite the
weak frontal boundary moving through overnight, temperatures will
stay mild and bottom out in the upper 40s and lower 50s.

Mejia

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Monday)
Issued at 1145 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

A potent shortwave trough will dive south over the Northern
Plains and towards the Great Lakes region during the daytime
Tuesday, helping force a strong and dry cold front through the
area Tuesday afternoon/evening. Winds will become gusty behind the
front Tuesday afternoon and evening, with frequent northwest
gusts 20 to 30 mph through Tuesday night. Temperatures drop below
average by Tuesday night, with a light freeze possible along the
OK/KS and MO/AR borders. After an unseasonably dry and cool day
Wednesday, a more widespread light freeze will occur Wednesday
night into Thursday morning. Otherwise, dry and benign weather
will persist, with slightly below average temperatures, through
the remainder of the week.

By late in the week and into next weekend, surface high pressure
moves off to the east and southerly winds return. Simultaneously,
the next trough will move onshore the West Coast and rapidly
intensify over the West CONUS. Consensus in models show widespread
rain and perhaps thunderstorms developing ahead of the
approaching system Friday night into Saturday. However, beyond
Saturday, forecast confidence remains highly uncertain with
several discrepancies in model solutions. But it is worth noting
that recent trends continue to show an unsettled, wet and chilly,
weather pattern persisting into early next week.

Mejia

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 520 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

Widespread IFR/MVFR ceilings and visibilities in drizzle and fog will
become IFR/LIFR overnight most sites. These conditions expected to
persist through late Tuesday morning, with improving conditions ern
OK sites Tuesday afternoon as cold front pushes into the area. Some
improvement also expected nwrn AR sites Tuesday afternoon, but
ceilings likely improve only to MVFR through the end of this forecast
period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   51  64  34  50 /  30   0   0   0
FSM   52  65  39  52 /  40   0   0   0
MLC   49  66  37  52 /  10   0   0   0
BVO   46  63  30  49 /  40   0   0   0
FYV   50  62  32  47 /  40   0   0   0
BYV   52  62  33  46 /  50   0   0   0
MKO   52  64  35  50 /  20   0   0   0
MIO   51  62  32  47 /  50   0   0   0
F10   49  65  34  51 /  10   0   0   0
HHW   48  65  39  54 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...69