476
FXUS64 KTSA 301800
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
100 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1241 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

 - Rain chances continue for parts of northeast Oklahoma through
   this afternoon, becoming more widespread Friday night/Saturday.

 - Shower and storm chances increase again early next week, a
   limited severe potential will exist Monday afternoon.

 - A cold front early next week will drop temperatures closer to
   seasonal average by midweek.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight)
Issued at 1210 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Scattered light to moderate showers continue mainly across
portions of northeast Oklahoma as a weak mid level wave slowly
lifts northeastward across west Texas. Some isolated thunder
remains possible through the mid afternoon along the
Oklahoma/Kansas border where limited instability has developed.
Overall rain amounts will remain light, with a few isolated
pockets of a quarter to half inch of rain possible where heavier
showers or storms develop. A lull in precipitation is expected
from mid afternoon through the evening as the initial piece of
energy leaves the local region. Widespread cloud cover with
occasional showers will keep temperatures nearly steady through
the rest of the afternoon across eastern Oklahoma, with highs
ranging from near 70 to the upper 70s from west to east
respectively.

Rain chances will begin to increase again later this evening into
the overnight hours as the main wave lifts into western Oklahoma.
Trends continue to suggest a decrease in rain amounts,
particularly across eastern Oklahoma as better rain chances shift
eastward into western Arkansas into Saturday morning. Still, at
least scattered showers should spread across the area tonight with
most locations seeing at least some measurable precipitation
through the period.

Bowlan

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Friday)
Issued at 1210 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Rain chances continue through much of the day Saturday across far
eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas, while drier conditions are
forecast across the western half of the CWA. Cloudy and rainy
conditions will keep temperatures down again on Saturday as highs
will trend near 70 for most of the area Saturday afternoon.
Generally light amounts can be expected again on Saturday with
isolated pockets up to a half inch possible across western
Arkansas. Weak mid level ridging builds in behind the exiting wave
on Sunday, providing a brief break in the rain chances. Afternoon
highs will rebound as well into the upper 70s under partly cloudy
skies.

Attention will then be on the main impact maker through this
forecast period as a dynamic upper level system moves into the
area on Monday. A more potent upper level trough will move on
shore the west coast over the weekend and eject out over the
Plains during the day Monday. At the same time, a surface low will
develop and deepen over the Central Plains before lifting
northeastward into the Upper Mississippi Valley late in the day
Monday, with an attendant cold front stretching southwestward from
the surface low. Increasing southerly flow, with surface wind
gusts around 30 to 40 mph possible Monday afternoon, will bring
ample low level moisture into the local region by Monday
afternoon. Scattered showers are likely to be ongoing Monday
morning within a strong warm advection region noted by a 40 to
50 knot 850hPa jet. How these showers evolve will likely play a
role in the strong to severe potential later in the day. Current
consensus is that an increasing risk for strong to severe
thunderstorms will become possible by mid afternoon Monday ahead
of the southeastward moving cold front. Sufficient instability,
MUCAPE around 1000J/kg, along with bulk shear values around 50
knots will support both supercell and more organized linear
structures along the strongly forced cold front. Damaging wind
gusts look to be the main threat with the stronger storms as
relatively weak mid level lapse rates don`t look supportive of
large hail at this point. A tornado threat could also evolve for a
short time at the onset of stronger storms as forecast hodographs
show sufficient turning of low level winds ahead of the front.
Current timing suggests that the most notable threat will evolve
across mainly central Oklahoma, into parts of eastern Oklahoma
generally along and west of a Bartlesville to McAlester to Hugo
line. Instability is forecast to drop off rapidly after sunset,
and thus the more potent severe threat will wane into the evening
hours as the front pushes southeastward.

In addition to the severe threat, the increasing moisture will
provide anomalously high PWAT values. Thus, areas of flash
flooding could evolve over more urban or flood prone areas as
higher rain rates occur with the stronger thunderstorms. The rest
of the forecast period will be noted by mainly dry conditions with
cooler, more normal early November temperatures on tap in the wake
of the front. Widespread lows in the 40s are likely for several
days, while some locations across the north drop into the 30s at
times.

Bowlan

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1241 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Scattered showers will continue to impact E OK terminals over the
next few hours, resulting in occasional MVFR conditions until
they move out of the area. An additional wave of light showers is
possible during the overnight hours, and any fog threat is
limited due to LL dry air and ML clouds keeping temperatures
relatively warm and dewpoints low. Winds will remain fairly light
and variable throughout the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   59  72  57  77 /  10  30  20  10
FSM   61  72  60  78 /  10  30  40  10
MLC   58  71  57  78 /  10  30  20  10
BVO   54  72  52  75 /  30  30  20  10
FYV   56  72  52  75 /  10  30  50  10
BYV   59  71  59  73 /  10  30  60  10
MKO   59  71  57  76 /  10  30  30  10
MIO   59  72  56  74 /  10  20  40  10
F10   57  72  57  77 /  10  20  20  10
HHW   60  71  60  78 /  20  40  20  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...48