Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
649 FXUS64 KTSA 162331 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 531 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 526 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025 - Low shower and storm chances early Monday and again Monday night. - Temps return well above normal Monday and Tuesday. - Unsettled pattern begins Tuesday night w/ increasing shower and thunderstorm chances. Widespread showers and storms Wednesday night through Thursday night. - A few strong to severe storms possible during the mid week time frame with primary hazard becoming heavy rainfall and associated flooding potential. && .SHORT TERM... (Through tonight ) Issued at 1210 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025 Eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas remains north of a weak frontal boundary that moved through yesterday with slightly cooler conditions this afternoon. A drier low level airmass behind this boundary lagged behind with the northern extent of the low level moisture/Theta-e axis just south of Interstate 40 as of late morning Sunday. Easterly winds in the lowest levels should help this axis to sag south/southwest through this evening, setting up just west/southwest of the CWA. In response, afternoon min relative humidity levels generally less than 45 percent could create areas of limited fire weather concern over the CWA this afternoon. Overnight tonight, southerly low level flow begins to return while a weak mid/upper level ridge pushes east of the CWA. This return flow will begin to lift the boundary back northeast as a warm front into the CWA. Increasing warm advection/isentropic lift ahead of the front could create isolated to widely scattered light rain showers over western Arkansas late tonight into Monday morning before exiting Monday afternoon. At the same time, increasing elevated instability tonight will create a slight chance of thunder with this activity Monday morning. With the front retreating into the CWA and the return of southerly flow, temperatures tonight remain warm with lows in the 50s to upper 60s. && .LONG TERM... (Tomorrow through Sunday) Issued at 1210 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025 The warm front is progged to reach into northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas Monday afternoon. Behind the warm front, well above seasonal average temperatures set up over much of eastern Oklahoma with highs in the mid 70s to lower 80s. Where cloud cover hangs on the longest and also ahead of the front, afternoon temperatures in the 60s to lower 70s are forecast over northwest Arkansas. A shortwave is forecast to move out into the Plans Monday/Monday night with a trailing weak frontal boundary that moves into the CWA Monday night and Tuesday. The combination of this wave, the exiting warm front and an increasing low level jet Monday night will allow for low chances of showers and storms over mainly portions of western Arkansas. This activity looks to exit early Tuesday morning with the push of the trailing frontal boundary. This second boundary lifts back northwest Tuesday night/Wednesday as southerly low level flow and moisture advection increases from a more defined area of low pressure moving into the Desert Southwest. Shower and thunderstorm chances return Tuesday night with the lifting boundary and then expands across the CWA Wednesday through Thursday night with the approach of the wave moving out into the Central/Southern Plains. During the day Wednesday, increasing instability will help to develop a limited strong to severe storm potential. This potential as well as overall thunder potentials look to weaken Wednesday night with a heavy rain threat becoming the primary impact Thursday/Thursday night. Latest model solutions have backed off slightly on QPF during the time period from the wave being a little more progressive. However, precipitable water values in excess of 1.5 inches still remain forecast which will continue the heavy rain threat that could lead to an increase in flooding concerns. With the slightly more progressive nature of the wave, the heavy rain threat looks to taper off from west to east Friday with a potential associated dry slot lifting into the region Friday morning. A cold front moves through during the day Friday while the wave continues its east/northeast track through the central U.S. Behind this departing wave, cooler conditions and northerly winds set up for the weekend. There are some indications of another shortwave quickly moving through the Southern Plains over the weekend that could potentially spread additional rain shower chances into the CWA late weekend. Will have to wait and see how this evolves through the week. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 526 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025 Lower clouds are expected to develop first in southeast Oklahoma and then expand across the area tonight. VFR to MVFR ceilings area expected for a time at most locations later tonight and into Monday morning. The clouds will likely vary at times between scattered and broken cover. An isolated shower is possible late tonight and early Monday morning in or near far northwest Arkansas. Clouds will clear from the southwest on Monday as gusty southwest winds develop. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 55 78 61 78 / 0 10 10 0 FSM 55 74 64 83 / 10 20 20 10 MLC 59 82 67 84 / 10 10 10 0 BVO 47 75 53 74 / 0 10 10 0 FYV 50 67 61 78 / 0 20 20 0 BYV 49 65 59 78 / 0 30 30 0 MKO 56 78 63 80 / 0 10 10 0 MIO 50 71 60 75 / 0 10 20 0 F10 56 81 64 81 / 0 10 10 0 HHW 61 82 68 83 / 10 10 10 10 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...20 LONG TERM....20 AVIATION...08