143
FXUS64 KTSA 101707
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1107 AM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1107 AM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

 - Much above normal temperatures return mid through late week.
   Dry weather will persist until Saturday, with breezy conditions
   at times.

 - Shower and thunderstorm chances next weekend, with a low chance
   for strong to severe storms.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 1139 PM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

After a widespread hard to killing freeze overnight, Monday will
be another chilly day, but winds will be lighter than Sunday.
Sunshine will be abundant, with afternoon high temperatures
mostly in the 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 1139 PM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

Gusty south winds return Tuesday, heralding a warming trend that
will continue through the rest of the week. Fire weather concerns
will increase some Tuesday, and again Thursday and Friday, with a
brief break from the gusty winds Wednesday as a weak frontal
boundary briefly dips south into the area. Afternoon high
temperatures will warm well above normal Wednesday through Friday,
with some places possibly reaching near 80 degrees by Friday.

The next storm system will affect the area next weekend. Track and
timing differences remain, but for now it appears the highest
shower and thunderstorm chances will be Saturday and Saturday
night. Instability may be sufficient for a few strong to severe
storms as well given the strength of the system, but this time of
year track and timing will be important regarding the overall
severe threat. This will be need to be monitored as the week
progresses. Temperatures will likely cool back to near the
seasonal averages following the passage of this system late next
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1107 AM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

VFR conditions will prevail through the period, with only a few
lower clouds for XNA/ROG at the outset. That batch of clouds has
steadily decreased in coverage with no impact expected at the
terminals. Northerly winds today will drop off this evening before
shifting to a southerly direction overnight. A strong low level
jet will lead to LLWS at the E OK sites before 12Z and the W AR
sites after 12Z, all of which should improve by late morning as
the faster winds mix down. Gusty south-southwesterly winds will
impact all terminals by late morning tomorrow, with gusts
approaching 25 to 30 kts by the end of the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   46  33  70  40 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   46  29  66  43 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   49  33  69  44 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   45  28  69  35 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   42  26  61  39 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   40  25  60  42 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   46  30  66  42 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   42  28  64  39 /   0   0   0   0
F10   48  32  68  42 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   50  31  66  46 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...22