658
FXUS64 KTSA 231449
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
849 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 847 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

  - Areas of fog likely this morning, some dense fog possible.

  - Increasing rain chances tonight and continuing into Monday.
    Locally heavy rainfall across SE OK and NW AR is the primary
    concern.

  - After Monday, near normal temperatures and dry conditions

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 847 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

Areas of dense fog continue to impact the region this morning, and
the Dense Fog Advisory has been expanded to include additional
counties and southeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas to better
match latest surface observations and satellite data. Have also
extended the Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM this morning as it
appears fog and low clouds will be slow to lift. An additional
extension cannot be ruled out. With this in mind, also opted to
lower high temperatures by several degrees with the expectation
that cloud cover will be slow to erode similar to yesterday.

Eventually, an approaching weather system (discussed below)
should strengthen low level winds and at least partially clear
out the clouds, mainly in central to southeast Oklahoma. In these
areas, temperatures should still manage to climb into the lower-
mid 60s. Elsewhere, cloud cover is likely to hang on for awhile
and significantly reduce the amount of sfc heating. This leads to
temps struggling to climb out of the 50s for much of northeast
Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. Will need to keep a close eye on
trends in these areas though, as high temperatures may still be
overdone.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Sunday)
Issued at 1048 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

Widespread stratus remains stubborn over northwest AR and a large
portion of northeast OK, and hasn`t shown much sign of erosion. High-
res model guidance continues to struggle handling this scenario, and
with surface high anchored over the forecast area tonight and fairly
deep inversion up to about 850mb noted on 00z sounding from KSGF, a
more pessimistic forecast of cloud cover will be made through
tonight. This also lends uncertainty to fog potential, though still
would expect further reductions to vis across parts of northwest AR,
where several stations reporting 3-5sm. Area most susceptible to
more widespread dense fog will be outside of the stratus deck, but
has not happened yet.

Any fog or low clouds will likely be slow to break up Sunday until a
little stronger low level flow becomes established. Those areas that
are able to clear should warm into the low-mid 60s, but more
persistent clouds would hold them down considerably. It`s that
time of year.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 1048 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

Upper low in the Southwest is forecast to continue lifting northeast
into the Central Plains by Sunday night into Monday. In response,
deep moisture will surge northward across much of the Southern
Plains with development of widespread showers and some embedded
thunderstorms as forcing begins to spread over increasingly moist
airmass. Given forecast precipitable water values above 95th
percentile by early Monday morning, any thunderstorms will be
efficient rainfall producers. Stronger wind fields also arriving
could aid in storm organization, however the greatest instability
will likely focus south of the Red River, thus the severe weather
threat will be limited to mainly southeast OK and perhaps west
central AR. An additional surge of precip during the day Monday
corresponds with arrival of strong upper jet streak, again with
instability mainly elevated and confined to areas south of I-40.
Rainfall amounts still look on the order of 1 to 2 inches from
southeast OK into west central AR, with some higher totals, with
lesser amounts to the north and west.

Dry weather returns as the upper low departs Monday with
temperatures remaining mild until a stronger cold front pushes
through Tuesday. This should bring temperatures back down below
normal with a period of gusty northwest winds Tuesday night into
Wednesday. This cool down looks short-lived as the surface low
quickly moves east by Friday, and moisture begins to return next
weekend ahead of another approaching system.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 550 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

LIFR/IFR conditions early Sunday morning are forecast to slowly
become IFR/MVFR into Sunday afternoon and remain scattered to
overcast into Sunday evening. Shower and thunderstorm chances
increase from west to east Sunday evening/night over the CWA with
the greater thunder potential along and south of Interstate 40.
Will continue with Tempo groups for timing of greater precip
potential for all TAF sites. Within the precip and continuing
through the end of the TAF period will be the potential for MVFR
conditions. Winds through the period start out light/variable and
become southerly this afternoon/evening. The exception being KFSM
were a more easterly wind is forecast through the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   57  52  61  49 /   0  70  70  10
FSM   62  51  60  51 /   0  70  90  40
MLC   64  53  63  49 /   0  90  80  20
BVO   57  47  61  46 /   0  60  70  20
FYV   61  49  59  50 /   0  60  90  40
BYV   61  48  58  51 /   0  40  90  50
MKO   59  51  61  49 /   0  80  80  20
MIO   59  49  60  50 /   0  60  80  40
F10   60  51  62  48 /   0  90  70  10
HHW   63  52  63  49 /   0  90 100  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for OKZ049-
     053>056-059-064>066-071-073.

AR...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for ARZ001-010.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...20