588
FXUS64 KTSA 090538
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1138 PM CST Sat Nov 8 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1128 PM CST Sat Nov 8 2025

 - Significantly colder temperatures behind a strong cold front
   Sunday through Monday.

 - Widespread hard freeze with high potential for a killing freeze
   Sunday night/Monday morning; Freeze Warning in effect from 9
   PM Sunday until 9 AM Monday.

 - Much above normal temperatures return mid through late next
   week. Dry weather will continue.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday)
Issued at 1128 PM CST Sat Nov 8 2025

A strong cold front has entered northeast Oklahoma late this
evening and will continue south across the rest of the forecast
area overnight. Gusty north to northwest winds and much colder
temperatures will follow the passage of this front through the day
Sunday. A band of cloudiness will move across the area Sunday
morning, but will clear out by afternoon. Afternoon high
temperatures will mostly be in the lower 40s to lower 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 1128 PM CST Sat Nov 8 2025

A widespread hard or killing freeze will occur Sunday night, with
overnight lows ranging from the upper teens to mid 20s. Have gone
colder than the NBM for this time period...closer to all available
MOS guidance. A freeze warning remains in effect from 9 pm Sunday
until 9 am Monday for the entire forecast area.

Monday will be another chilly day, although winds will be much
lighter than Sunday. A return to south winds Monday night will
result in a milder night compared to Sunday night, but many places
will still fall to near or below freezing.

Gusty south winds Tuesday will herald a warming trend, with much
above normal temperatures then expected through the rest of the
week and even into next weekend. The next storm system will
approach the area next weekend, with the GFS much faster than
other models. Have kept the NBM pops for late Saturday and
Saturday night for now, but if the non-GFS solutions verify, pops
will likely need to be delayed by at least a day in later
forecasts.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1128 PM CST Sat Nov 8 2025

High clouds will give way to scattered/broken MVFR to low end VFR
ceilings from north to south overnight tonight into early Sunday
morning as a secondary cold airmass moves over the region. The
greater potential for MVFR ceilings is over far northwest Arkansas
and will continue with Tempo groups for timing of greater MVFR
potential at all TAF sites. By late morning through mid afternoon,
ceilings are forecast to scatter out from northwest to southeast
with mostly clear skies Sunday evening across the CWA. Winds
through the period start out light from the north/northwest and
increase overnight with gusts of up around 25KT through Sunday
afternoon before finally weakening Sunday evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   39  47  23  46 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   44  50  25  46 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   42  52  23  49 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   35  45  19  45 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   35  44  19  43 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   36  42  19  40 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   40  48  23  46 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   36  43  19  43 /   0   0   0   0
F10   40  50  22  48 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   47  54  25  50 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Freeze Warning from 9 PM Sunday to 9 AM CST Monday for OKZ049-
     053>076.

AR...Freeze Warning from 9 PM Sunday to 9 AM CST Monday for ARZ001-
     002-010-011-019-020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...20