574
FXUS64 KTSA 052315
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
615 PM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1248 PM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025

  - Mostly dry weather with above normal temperatures into Monday.

  - Limited grassland fire weather danger west of Highway 75 and south
    of U.S. Highway 412 this afternoon.

  - Low shower and thunderstorm chances exist Monday and Tuesday,
    along with slightly cooler temperatures Tuesday and
    Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 1248 PM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025

Eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas resided between a ridge of
high pressure centered over the East Coast and a parent mid/upper
level trof oriented from the Mountain West through the Northern
Plains this afternoon. In response, southerly winds gusting 15 to
near 30 mph were observed over northeast Oklahoma, with gusts of 5
to 20 mph over southeast Oklahoma and wester Arkansas. These
winds along with ongoing above seasonal average temperatures and
relative humidity expected to fall to around 35 percent west of
Highway 75 in northeast Oklahoma will aid in limited grassland
fire weather danger through late afternoon. Fire weather concerns
west of Highway 75 should improve this evening with weakening
winds and recovering humidity.

This evening and overnight tonight, southerly low level flow
around the western periphery of the high pressure ridge will
advect moisture back into the region. At the same time, a
shortwave within the parent mid/upper level trof is expected to
over the Rocky Mountains. This will help to slowly push a weak
cold front, currently positioned from New Mexico through the
Central Plains and into western Minnesota, toward the region. The
combination of these features will increase cloud cover over much
of the CWA overnight tonight into Monday with low temps in the
60s forecast.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Sunday)
Issued at 1248 PM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025

The weak cold front is progged to remain just northwest of the CWA
during the day Monday before the shortwave and parent mid/upper
level trof moves eastward through the Plains Monday night/Tuesday.
Ahead of the boundary, increasing moisture interacting with
continued above seasonal average temperatures and also slightly
greater instability will develop low thunderstorm chances over
mainly far eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas. Development
could start as early as late morning, through the greater
potential 20-35 percent is forecast Monday afternoon into early
evening. Severe weather is not anticipated. Any precip
development along the front should remain north/northwest of the
CWA Monday.

Low rain/storm chances remain Monday night mainly over western
Arkansas and near the Oklahoma Kansas border as the weak front
begins to enter the CWA with the push of the shortwave/trof. These
low storm chances continue into Tuesday as the front moves
through, with rain/storm chances tapering off Tuesday late
afternoon. Overall, QPF amounts are forecast to be light with most
locations of the CWA unfortunately remaining dry Monday/Tuesday.
One noticeable feature with the passage of the front and the
associated shortwave will be cooler conditions Tuesday and
Wednesday with high temperatues of 70s/80s.

Looking into the second half of the week, latest model solutions
continue to indicate the ridge of high pressure reestablishing
back over the Southern Plains. However, compared to 24-hrs ago,
models now have eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas on the
eastern periphery of the ridge Friday into the weekend, before it
spreads more eastward late weekend. This could allow for a
shortwave to drop southeast through the Plains along the eastern
periphery of the ridge and across the CWA Friday. With the
inconsistency of model runs from yesterday to today, have kept
PoPs Friday just below mentionable criteria. If this latest
solution verifies then shower/storm chances could return Friday,
otherwise, a warming trend looks to develop Thursday into next
weekend. Late week forecast will continue to be refined.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 615 PM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025

In summary, VFR conditions will persist at all TAF sites through
the forecast period. Winds should decrease this evening and
become light and variable at most locations overnight tonight.
Mid/upper-level cloud cover will increase across far eastern OK
and western AR around or just after midnight tonight; VFR
conditions are forecast to persist. Mid-level cloud cover will
continue to thicken up over far eastern OK and western AR through
the morning and into Monday afternoon as a cold front approaches
from the northwest. Model guidance continues to indicate isolated
to scattered showers and thunderstorms developing early-mid
afternoon across far eastern OK and western AR, where better
moisture and instability will exist. Introduced PROB30 groups at
XNA, ROG, FYV, and FSM for TSRA chances by 20z. Outside of any
thunderstorms that are able to move over these terminals, VFR is
expected to prevail.

Mejia

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   65  88  64  80 /   0   0   0  10
FSM   67  85  68  85 /   0  30  20  30
MLC   65  87  65  85 /   0  10  10  20
BVO   61  88  60  77 /   0   0  10  20
FYV   62  83  63  81 /   0  30  20  20
BYV   62  81  64  79 /  10  30  20  20
MKO   65  87  66  83 /   0  10  10  10
MIO   63  86  62  78 /   0  10  10  20
F10   63  87  65  83 /   0  10   0  10
HHW   66  86  67  86 /   0  20  10  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...67