714
FXUS64 KTSA 190446
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1046 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1004 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

  - Well above normal temperatures Wednesday.

  - Unsettled pattern begins with increasing shower and
    thunderstorm chances Wednesday evening through Thursday night.
    A few stronger storms possible Wednesday night through
    Thursday afternoon.

  - Cold front Friday will drop temperatures closer to seasonal normal
    this weekend and into early next week.

  - Increasing rain chances again early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Wednesday)
Issued at 1004 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

Weak frontal boundary stationed near the Red River late this
evening with a slightly cooler airmass residing over the local
forecast area, after a day of record warmth across western AR and
southeast OK. Lows tonight will be notably cooler in most areas,
but still above normal.

Rich low level moisture remains in place across TX and will begin
to return back north in response to approaching upper low
presently off the southern CA coast. Expectation remains for
scattered showers and a few thunderstorms to begin spreading into
mainly southeast OK by late Wed afternoon, with increasing
coverage through the evening with a strengthening low level jet.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 1004 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

Coverage and intensity of precip increases into Thursday. While
instability looks fairly limited, increasingly strong deep layer
wind fields will support a low-end threat of severe storms both
Wed night and Thursday, especially south of I-40 in closer
proximity to the frontal boundary which lifts back north.

Deep moisture will continue to spread north with precipitable
water nearing record levels anticipated by Thursday, with stronger
forcing spreading east resulting in widespread showers and
thunderstorms with potential for quite heavy rain rates in any
thunderstorms. The result is likely widespread rainfall amounts
of 1-3" and some locally greater amounts. Flash flood threat is
likely to remain localized due to antecedent dry conditions, but
he high rates could certainly lead to flooding of smaller streams
and urban areas.

Bulk of the precip should move east by late Thursday and Friday
as upper wave moves east and a cold front moves through. Temps
will be cooler for the weekend but still several degrees above
normal. Another upper low on track to impact the region early
next week with additional widespread showers and a few
thunderstorms resulting in locally heavy rainfall.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1004 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

Flight conditions will be primarily VFR through this forecast
period, with the exception of a likely period of low clouds
spreading north into southeast OK and perhaps west central AR
after sunrise Wednesday. Also there is limited potential for fog
across northwest AR, but uncertain coverage and duration due to
increasing high clouds. There will be increasing probability of
showers and a few thunderstorms spreading north across the area mainly
after 00z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   48  74  60  70 /   0   0  60  90
FSM   53  79  63  72 /   0  10  60  90
MLC   53  82  64  73 /   0  20  70  90
BVO   42  71  55  68 /   0   0  60  80
FYV   47  76  60  70 /   0   0  60 100
BYV   47  72  58  67 /   0   0  60 100
MKO   49  77  62  70 /   0  10  60  90
MIO   45  70  57  67 /   0   0  70  90
F10   49  77  62  70 /   0  10  70  90
HHW   60  82  64  73 /  10  20  80  90

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...14