433
FXUS64 KTSA 300515
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1215 AM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1211 AM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026

 - An extended period of hot and dry weather will persist through
   at least the first week of September. Daily heat headlines are
   likely.

 - Rain chances look very low through the forecast period.

 - The ongoing drought situation will continue to worsen.
   Localized fire weather concerns will develop each day.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Sunday)
Issued at 1138 PM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026

Light to moderate southerly winds overnight tonight will continue
to advect in warm temperatures and low-level moisture into the
region. Thus, temperatures will remain above average across the
district through the night, bottoming out in the lower to middle
70s for most locations.

Another abnormally hot day is in store on Sunday as the center of
a strong upper level ridge shifts from the Southern High Plains
and directly over the CWA by the afternoon. Closer to the
surface, thermal ridging will strengthen across the High Plains as
diurnal heating occurs in the afternoon. In response, the surface
pressure gradient will tighten and southerly winds will increase,
becoming breeziest along and north of I-44 by mid-afternoon or
so. The biggest challenge in the short-term, and likely
continuing in the long-term period, will be determining how much
mixing and exactly when mixing occurs during the afternoon period.
Given the strength and position of the upper-level ridge on
Sunday, and the fact a few locations briefly reached Heat Advisory
criteria on Saturday, confidence is fairly high Heat Advisory-
level conditions will be met, for at least a few hours, for
portions of northeast OK on Sunday...specifically along and north
of I-44. A Heat Advisory remains in effect for parts of northeast
OK from noon until 8 PM.

Mejia

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 1138 PM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026

Focus in the long-term will continue to be on the dangerous heat
building into the area, the growing drought conditions, and the
increasing fire weather concerns. Heat headlines will likely be
needed for at least portions of the forecast area almost each day
through the long-term period.

Broad upper-level ridging will overspread much of the central and
southern CONUS through next week and into next weekend. Mesoscale
boundaries and upper-level troughs, that could potentially bring
cooler temperatures and meaningful rainfall, will stay well away
from the forecast area for the foreseeable future. As southerly
winds continue to advect low-level moisture into the region over
the next several days, dewpoints will continue to rise each day.
Guidance even suggests there could be enough low-level moisture
for brief, diurnally-driven showers and storms, especially in the
high terrain areas of the forecast area, beginning mid to late
next week. Otherwise, rainfall looks unlikely until possibly the
end of the workweek and into next weekend when the upper-level
ridge shifts west of the area again. But at this time, forecast
confidence is very low with regards to the next best chance of
rain.

Mejia

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1211 AM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026

VFR conditions prevail through the forecast period for all sites
with FEW to SCT high clouds as well as diurnal cu development
likely. LLWS will persist through the overnight hours for KBVO,
KTUL, and KRVS as a SW LLJ strengthens across N-Central OK. South
winds increase during the morning and afternoon hours, especially
across NE OK, with gusts up to 20 kts possible. Dry weather
continues.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL  102  79 102  78 /   0   0   0   0
FSM  102  74 104  75 /   0   0   0   0
MLC  101  77 102  76 /   0   0   0   0
BVO  102  75 102  74 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   98  73 100  73 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   97  74  99  73 /   0   0   0   0
MKO  100  75 100  74 /   0   0   0   0
MIO  100  76 100  75 /   0   0   0   0
F10  101  75 101  75 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   99  75  98  75 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
     OKZ055>057-059>062-064-067-154-254-354.

AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...43