Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ
415 FXUS65 KTWC 071934 AFDTWC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 1234 PM MST Fri Nov 7 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Dry and warm conditions continues through the coming week. Sunday through early Tuesday will have easterly breezes. Temperatures in Graham, Greenlee, and Cochise counties will fall to near normal Sunday, with the potential for a morning freeze in eastern valleys early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Sunny skies today with above normal temperatures across southern Arizona as the upper level pattern from the western CONUS to the eastern Pacific continues. This pattern will continue through tomorrow, followed by a back door cold front that will bring cooler air from New Mexico into Cochise, Graham and Greenlee counties. High temperatures starting Sunday will drop to near normal and the tightening pressure gradient between the deepening low to the east and building ridge over the western US will induce easterly winds 10-20 MPH. Easterly winds will continue through Monday afternoon to then calm by Tuesday morning. Cool air brought in by the back door cold front will bring down overnight temperatures particularly in the Sulfur Springs, San Pedro and San Simon Valleys. Both Monday morning and Tuesday morning temperatures could possibly down to freezing. The biggest factor that would keep temperatures above freezing would be overnight easterly winds, particularly on Monday. Easterly winds tend to keep temperatures warmer inhibiting freezing. These winds will lessen significantly by Tuesday morning, making it more likely for freezing temperatures. Currently, the probability for freezing temperatures ranges from 25% to 45% both Monday and Tuesday. If winds weaken Monday it will be more likely for freezing temperatures however as of now, Tuesday looks to have the better chances for freezing temperatures. The back door cold front will push out of the area Tuesday to be replaced by weak high pressure raising temperatures a few degrees above normal. Starting just at the very end of the 7 day forecast period, there is a signal for strong troughing to develop in the Western CONUS that would lead to a pattern change here in southern Arizona. There remains plenty of details to work out and high uncertainty still remains. The deterministic 12Z GFS/ECMWF/Canadian guidance suggest a strong trough pushing south from the north Pacific that results in a cut off low. The timing, intensity, and location of the trough and subsequent cut off low is widely varying between the models. Because of this, there is a wide spread of possibilities. For example, the NBM`s temperature probabilities for next Saturday (11/15) with the 25th to 75th percentiles featuring a 15 to 20 degree spread in both highs and lows. More clarity to come the closer we get. && .AVIATION...Valid through 08/12Z. SKC through the forecast period. SFC winds from the northwest 5 to 10 kts through 08/05Z becoming light from the southeast. Aft 08/20Z winds shift to be from the northwest at 5 to 10 kts through the rest of the forecast period. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...Dry and unseasonably warm conditions for the next week with afternoon high temperatures generally 4 to 9 degrees above normal. Minimum RH values over the next week will remain in the 12- 22 percent range. 20-foot winds through Saturday will be terrain and diurnally driven less than 12 mph with local gusts to 20 mph during the afternoon hours each day. Winds turn easterly Sunday morning and lasting into Monday due to a frontal boundary pushes in from the east. These east winds will be highest in areas exposed to east/southeast flow, especially in the Gila River Valley where 10-20 mph winds with gusts to 35 mph are forecast Sunday. Winds weaken significantly by Tuesday. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Malarkey Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson