574
FXUS65 KTWC 151517
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
817 AM MST Sun Jun 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Dry and hot conditions will continue across southeast
Arizona through at least early next week. Temperatures peak this
today and Monday, with extreme heat across southeast Arizona and
highs 8 to 12 degrees above normal. Increased breezes to start
the new week due to a passing weather system.

&&

.UPDATE...Main weather story for today remains the heat with today
expected to be the hottest day of 2025. There is a bit of mid level
moisture creeping northward into Cochise County and this is
reflected in the GOES PWAT imagery which shows PWAT values of around
0.7-0.8" south of the border. This will be just enough moisture for
some cloud build-ups, especially along/near the higher terrain such
as the Chiricahuas. The forecast reflects this well with a slight
chances of thunderstorms (mainly dry) this afternoon. The HREF does
indicate a 30-50 percent chance of winds greater than 30 mph across
Cochise County as gusty outflow winds would accompany any activity
that develops.

&&

.DISCUSSION...The main story continues to be the heat with the
Extreme Heat Warning in effect through Monday evening. It will be
a very hot Father`s Day with highs across the lower deserts in
the 110 to 113 range but remaining a few degrees below June 15th
and Father`s Day record highs.

The other story, on this first day of the 2025 Monsoon, is the
minor increase of moisture across the eastern areas, especially
in Cochise county, that may lead to a low end potential, less than
15%, for a mainly dry thunderstorm or two, with the Chiricahua
mountains seeing the best chance. Made slight upward adjustments
to the NBM PoP grids across Cochise county where PW values will
increase into the 0.60"-0.90" range. Main threat from any storm
that develops will be gusty winds up to 40 mph due to inverted-V
profiles with main time frame between 2 pm and 7 pm.

Monday: Remaining hot with afternoon breezes kicking in due to
approaching upper level trof that will be moving into California.

Tuesday: The above mentioned upper level trof will swing by to our
north bringing gusty afternoon W/NW winds to the area with the
strongest gusts occuring in NW-SE orientated valleys like the
Upper Gila Valley. The gusty winds combined with low RH values
will bring a few hours of near critical fire weather conditions.
Made slight upward adjustments to the NBM winds in the Gila River
Valley to get them where MET/MAV MOS values. Highs a few degrees
cooler than Monday but remaining hot.

Wednesday through Friday: Hot temperatures continue with the
upper high strengthening again with heights/thickness values on
Thursday similar to today. Thus later shifts may have to consider
heat headlines for Thursday and possibly Friday. South of the
border monsoonal moisture will be sloshing around while gradually
creeping north toward Arizona.

Next weekend: The moisture seep continues into the southern areas
near the Intl border with a slight chance of afternoon storms
across the southern parts of Cochise county. Its a start.

The 8-14 day outlook period (June 22-28) still looking promising
precipitation wise with CPC leaning toward above normal rainfall
(40% to 50%) as monsoonal moisture gradually increases across the
area. Stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 16/12Z.
SKC thru much of the valid pd with FEW-SCT 10-12k ft AGL mainly
SE of KTUS btwn 15/20z and 16/05Z. Cloud build-ups are psbl over
the Chiricahua mtns btwn 15/20Z and 16/02Z that may lead to a
SLGT CHC of a dry TS. SFC winds terrain driven and less than 10
kts thru 15/17z and then again aft 16/04z. At the other hours SFC
winds WLY/NWLY at 8-14 kts with gusts to around 20 kts and 12-16
kts with gusts to 25 kts at KSAD. Aviation discussion not updated
for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Dry and hot conditions are expected across
southeast Arizona through early next week. Generally single digit
min RH values in the valleys, with mountain locations in the 10-18
percent range. There are slight chances (less than 10 percent)
for dry lightning Sunday afternoon in Cochise County. These dry
lightning chances can also bring erratic and gusty winds of 30 mph
or higher. Otherwise, 20-foot winds will be 15 mph or less from
Tucson westward, with occasional afternoon/early evening gusts to
around 20 mph due to the strong surface heating. East of Tucson,
breezy afternoon and early evening 20-foot winds are expected in
the Gila River Valley on Sunday with peak wind speeds of 12-18 mph
and gusts to around 30 mph. Expect similar to slightly stronger
speeds from Tucson eastward Monday and Tuesday as a weak weather
system moves through. The strongest winds will again be in the
upper Gila River valley near Safford, with the possibility of a
few hours of near critical to brief critical fire weather
conditions.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
 Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM MST Monday for AZZ501>509.

&&

$$

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