Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ
879 FXUS65 KTWC 260932 AFDTWC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 232 AM MST Sun Jul 26 2026 .SYNOPSIS...Expect daily afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms over the next week with some day to day variability in coverage and strength. High temperatures will be 2-5 degrees above normal through the middle of the week then warm to 6-10 degrees above normal late this week in to the weekend. && .DISCUSSION...Evening showers have dissipated across southeast Arizona leaving mostly cloud skies over most of the CWA. Aloft high pressure is centered over northeast New Mexico and southern Colorado, and it will generally stay centered over that general area into the middle of the week. This will keep southeast Arizona under moist east to southeast flow leading to daily thunderstorm chances over the next week. Today and Monday hi-res guidance shows scattered storm coverage mainly from Tucson south and east in the afternoon and evening. Today the severe wind threat is diminished with HREF and REFS probabilities of 40 mph winds or greater within 25 km of a point generally 10-40 percent mainly east of Tucson. Not to say there won`t be a severe storm two, but it looks like the bigger threat will be locally heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding. Steering flow will be weaker today with 500 mb winds 5-10 kts, which will lead to slower moving storms. Ample moisture will be in place for high rain rates especially in Santa Cruz County and the southern half of Cochise County. Monday mid-level winds increase to 15-20 kts bringing higher wind gust neighborhood probabilities from Tucson southward. Both the REFS and HREF show mean 0-6 km wind shear of 25-35 kts, which is fairly high for the monsoon season. This could lead to stronger and longer lived updrafts in storms creating a risk for severe winds gusts. SPC has a marginal risk for severe weather from Tucson southward Monday. Locally heavy rainfall leading to areas of flash flooding will also be a concern with the best chances for this again Santa Cruz and Cochise Counties. Thereafter expect daily afternoon and evening thunderstorm chances with day to day variability. Tuesday mid-level winds remain elevated with speeds 15-20 kts and also turn more southerly, which will lead to storm motion more south to north rather than east to west. High temperatures will "cool" to 2-5 degrees above normal today into Wednesday then increase to 6-10 degrees above normal Thursday into the weekend as the ridge strengthens and moves westward. && .AVIATION...Valid through 27/12Z. SCT-BKN clouds AOA 15k ft AGL early this morning becoming SCT- BKN 8k-12k ft AGL this afternoon and evening. Scattered TSRA possible from Tucson south and eastward this afternoon and evening. KOLS and KDUG will have the best chances to see TSRA with Tucson likely on the western periphery of storm chances. Any thunderstorm may produce wind gusts in excess of 40 kts. Otherwise SFC winds variable less then 8 kts this morning becoming NWLY 5-10 kts with ocnl gusts to 18 kts this afternoon and evening. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...High temperatures will remain above normal for the next week. Expect daily chances of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms with day-to-day variability on coverage of storms. Any thunderstorm will bring a threat of severe, erratic wind gusts as well as brief heavy rainfall and an isolated threat of flash flooding. Minimum relative humidity values will be 20-40 percent in the lower deserts through at least mid-week. Winds this weekend will mainly be light and under 12 mph outside of thunderstorms. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Hardin Visit us on Facebook, X, YouTube, and at weather.gov/Tucson