Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
533 FXUS64 KEPZ 040418 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 1018 PM MDT Fri Oct 3 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1015 PM MDT Fri Oct 3 2025 - Warm and dry weather into early next week. High temperatures around 5-7 degrees above normal through Tuesday. - Breezy conditions Saturday. - Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms for the middle part of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1015 PM MDT Fri Oct 3 2025 Late summer-like temperatures continue this early October as a ridge of high pressure persists over northern Mexico, while a Pacific trough moves inland over the Great Basin by Saturday. These two features are working in tandem to draw up mostly warm and dry air with southwest flow aloft. Thus unseasonably warm temperatures will continue through the weekend into early next week. As models have been showing, this broad southwest flow was able to draw high level moisture (above 400mb) from TS Octave over eastern Arizona and western New Mexico today. It did allow CU buildups today over southwest New Mexico but appears no rain was able to develop from these clouds. This thin, tropical plume will continue east overnight, reaching the eastern CWA Saturday afternoon. Again, this likely will help some CU development but rain is expected. The southwest flow aloft will help create decent lee-side low eastern Colorado, allowing breezy winds to develop Saturday afternoon. Broad southwest flow aloft will continue into Monday. Expect more dry weather Sunday/Monday with high temps continuing around 5-7 degrees above normal. By late Monday and moreso on Tuesday, the influence of tropical feature Priscilla will begin to be felt over our area. While she will contribute little, if any moisture initially, she is able build up sub-tropical ridge from the northern Gulf of America across northern Mexico. This will allow some sub-tropical moisture over northern Mexico and even the Gulf of America, to advect in as mid-level flow turns more south/southwest. Thus chances of rain will start again in the forecast, if not Monday night, then Tuesday and Wednesday. GFS and ECMWF are pretty similar through Thursday, though the ECMWF does not advect as much moisture up. Both models show upper ridge building over/near the CWA Thursday through Saturday for drier weather. If you want to look way out, the GFS is advertising a sort of "monsoon renaissance" as days 9-10 show more tropical moisture streaming up with what would be tropical feature Raymond. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1015 PM MDT Fri Oct 3 2025 Generally VFR through the period. SKC with SCT-BKN100 over higher terrain and west of the Cont Divide. Isolated BKN080CB -SHRA/-TSRA west of the Cont Divide until around 06Z. South/southeast winds 8-12G18 knots until 03Z, then variable AOB 7 knots. After 18Z,mostly east of the Rio Grande Valley...SCT100 SCT-BKN250 && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1123 AM MDT Fri Oct 3 2025 Low end fire danger expected tomorrow afternoon due to breezy conditions (20 foot winds 10-17 mph) combined with min RHs of 18-24% (lowlands). Very similar min RHs expected Sunday afternoon but 20 foot wind speeds will be lowered (generally 5-10 mph but isolated locations could see 15 mph winds over the eastern portions of the Black Range. Min RHs will be 20-30% in the lowlands and 40-50% in the mountains Monday with dry conditions and light afternoon breezes. Rain chances return Tuesday and Wednesday which increases min RHs both days to 25-35% in the lowlands and 50-65% in the mountains. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 91 67 90 67 / 0 0 0 10 Sierra Blanca 85 58 86 59 / 0 0 0 10 Las Cruces 86 57 85 58 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 86 60 85 61 / 0 0 0 10 Cloudcroft 63 45 63 45 / 0 0 0 10 Truth or Consequences 85 54 83 56 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 79 50 77 52 / 10 10 0 0 Deming 89 55 87 56 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 85 55 83 56 / 20 10 0 0 West El Paso Metro 88 66 87 67 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 88 60 88 62 / 0 0 0 10 Fort Hancock 92 65 91 67 / 0 0 0 10 Loma Linda 81 60 80 61 / 0 0 0 10 Fabens 91 65 89 65 / 0 0 0 10 Santa Teresa 87 62 85 63 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 87 63 85 63 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 86 58 84 59 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 89 55 87 57 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 89 59 88 61 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 85 59 84 60 / 0 0 0 10 Mayhill 74 49 75 49 / 0 0 0 0 Mescalero 76 49 75 50 / 0 0 0 0 Timberon 73 47 72 49 / 0 0 0 10 Winston 77 43 76 45 / 10 0 0 0 Hillsboro 84 52 83 54 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 85 54 83 56 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 79 45 77 46 / 10 0 0 0 Hurley 82 50 80 51 / 10 10 0 0 Cliff 85 52 83 52 / 10 10 0 0 Mule Creek 80 48 78 48 / 10 20 0 0 Faywood 81 52 79 54 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 86 54 84 55 / 20 10 0 0 Hachita 86 55 84 56 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 86 55 85 56 / 10 10 0 0 Cloverdale 80 53 78 54 / 10 10 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...17-Hefner