Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
107 FXUS64 KFWD 291900 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 200 PM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - A Flood Watch is in effect for much of North and Central Texas through Friday morning. - A couple strong to severe thunderstorms are possible along and west of the US-281 corridor Wednesday afternoon and evening. - Much cooler weather is expected this weekend with continued clouds and scattered showers/storms lingering through Sunday. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 200 PM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026 ...Tuesday and Tuesday Night... The rest of today and tonight will remain quiet across North and Central Texas as upper-level ridging slowly shifts to the east. Temperatures will remain above average with highs in the low to mid-90s. With the approach of the primary upper-level disturbance to the west, surface cyclogenesis is expected in the southern High Plains. As a result, the pressure gradient should tighten across the region resulting in gusty winds of 15-25 mph. ...Wednesday... By Wednesday, the primary upper-level disturbance will move from the Four-Corners Region into the southern Rockies. At the surface, a low pressure center is expected to develop in the proximity of the Texas Panhandle before moving northeast into the Central Plains. A Pacific front will extend southward from the low- pressure into Central Texas. With strong forcing for ascent and substantial moisture in place (PWATs potentially exceeding 2 inches), scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop in proximity to this frontal zone by the afternoon hours on Wednesday. There will be the potential for a couple strong to severe thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and evening primarily along and west of the US-281 corridor. This will be owing to sufficient deep-layer shear (30-40 knots) and modest instability (MLCAPE 1000-1500 J/kg). There will be localized areas with enhanced 0-1 km shear (especially in proximity to the stronger storms) with shear magnitudes of 15-25 knots. However, the low-level shear profile lacks curvature with 0-1km SRH generally 100 m2/s2 or less. As such, though a tornado or two can`t be ruled out in the Big Country, this threat looks rather low at the moment. As such, the primary hazards in any severe storm will be for large hail and damaging winds. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through next Monday) Issued at 200 PM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026 ...Wednesday Night through Thursday Night... Wednesday night widespread thunderstorms are expected along the nearly stationary frontal zone extending from the Texas Hill country into Oklahoma. Storm motions will be nearly parallel the surface boundary resulting in an increasing risk for flash flooding throughout the overnight. This flooding threat will be maximized along and west of the US-281 corridor, though isolated instances of flash flooding can`t be ruled out closer to the I-35 corridor by sunrise Thursday morning. By Thursday the greatest flash flooding threat will shift more towards the I-35 corridor as training showers and thunderstorms continue to slowly move east. By Thursday night, the upper-level disturbance will lift to the northeast resulting in more scattered coverage of showers and thunderstorms. While isolated instances of flash flooding will still be possible (especially along and west of the I-35 corridor), the flooding threat should generally start to decrease by Thursday night. Wednesday night through Thursday night rainfall totals will be 1-3 inches for most. Isolated pockets of 4-6 inches of rain are expected, especially between the I-35 and US-281 corridors. Temperatures will also finally dip below average due to the rain and cloud cover in the area. Thursday highs will be in the 80s for most with the increased cloud cover and rain in the area. Locations that see the most persistent rain Wednesday night into Thursday may remain in the 70s Thursday afternoon. Areas in and around the Brazos Valley may once again warm into the low-90s as rain will struggle to push eastward into these areas. ...Friday through Sunday... Though the main upper-level shortwave will move well to the northwest towards the Midwest and Great Lakes by this weekend, weak troughing will remain over the southern Plains and Rockies. At the surface, a weak frontal boundary will remain across the region. There is uncertainty with how far south this boundary will push, and what its evolution will be throughout the weekend. Regardless, low-level forcing in proximity to this boundary along with weak forcing for ascent on the leeward side of the aforementioned upper-level trough will allow scattered showers and non-severe thunderstorms to remain across North and Central Texas this weekend. Rain chances will gradually decrease through Sunday afternoon when medium-range guidance depicts a more substantial cold front moving through the region from north to south. Weak CAA at the surface along with continued cloud cover and rain across the region will also keep temperatures below average this weekend with highs in the upper-70s and lower-80s. ...Monday Onward... By Monday, medium range guidance has a much more fall-like airmass in place across the region. Weak shortwaves embedded in increasingly northwesterly flow aloft will bring several reinforcing shots of cool fall air to much of the CONUS, of which should make it as far south as North and Central Texas. This will keep temperatures in the 70s and 80s and bring much drier (dew points should fall into the 50s by mid-week next week). While this will allow for warmer afternoon highs than this weekend, overnight lows will be much colder in the upper-50s and lower-60s. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 200 PM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026 A deck of MVFR cigs is expected to develop across Central TX (KACT) sometime between 08Z and 10Z. The northern extent of these cigs will move quickly north into D10 sometime between 09Z and 11Z. There is some uncertainty with when these ceilings should give way to VFR, but current guidance shows this transition between 16Z and 19Z. Otherwise, expect south/southeasterly winds to gradually strengthen throughout the course of this forecast period from 10-15 knots to 15-20 knots. Gusts up to 30 knots will be possible tomorrow after 12Z once cloud cover disappears. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 76 93 73 82 / 0 30 80 100 Waco 75 94 74 86 / 0 40 70 100 Paris 72 93 73 86 / 0 10 40 90 Denton 74 93 70 81 / 0 40 90 100 McKinney 72 92 70 82 / 0 30 80 100 Dallas 77 94 75 84 / 0 30 80 100 Terrell 73 94 72 86 / 0 20 50 100 Corsicana 73 94 73 88 / 0 20 40 90 Temple 72 95 72 87 / 10 50 70 100 Mineral Wells 72 91 69 81 / 0 50 100 100 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday afternoon for TXZ091>094-100>104-115>120-129>134-141>145-156-157-159. && $$ SHORT TERM...Darrah LONG TERM....Darrah AVIATION...Darrah