100
FXUS63 KGLD 161115
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
515 AM MDT Sat Aug 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Generally dry and warm conditions are forecast through the
  weekend with mostly clear skies and high temperatures in the
  90s and 100s.

- Low chance storms remain possible during the afternoon/evening
  hours going into the early part of next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 245 AM MDT Sat Aug 16 2025

Not much change in the overall pattern, with the ridge settling
into the southeast CONUS and shortwave troughs rotating around
it. Storms will initiate in Colorado by late afternoon and have
a little more easterly component to their motion compared to
yesterday. This will allow them to reach the Kansas border area
this evening, but weakening as they do so. Initial storms in
Colorado will pose a limited wind threat, but otherwise overall
severe risk is rather low. Widely scattered showers or an
isolated thunderstorm may persist into the overnight hours as
the outflow boundary moves east.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 143 PM MDT Fri Aug 15 2025

Temperatures have already reached the 90s across most of the
area, with a few hundreds still likely be the peak of the
afternoon. Winds are beginning to increase from the south as the
center of the lower pressure is beginning to shift slightly
north and west. If the low center succeeds in shifting west of
the area, our storm chances for today will remain minimal.
Dewpoints are already a bit lower in the 40s and 50s, which when
combined with the loss of surface convergence, makes it
unlikely we will see showers and storms today. Eastern Colorado
may still have a storm or two move over, but they likely
wouldn`t do anything. At worst,a gust around 60-70 mph as a
shower/storm decays could occur.

Tonight, a few clouds may move over from the nearby storms, but
mostly clear skies should prevail over the area with the
overall dry air. With winds around 10-15 mph from the nearby low
keeping the lower atmosphere mixed, low temperatures should
drop only into the 60s and 70s. Winds may be a bit more from the
southeast, helping to recover some low level moisture.

Saturday, the overall pattern doesn`t change much with the
upper ridge still over the area. Skies should be mostly sunny
with temperatures climbing into the 90s and 100s. Winds through
the morning hours should shift to be a bit more from the south
at 10-15 mph.

During the afternoon and evening hours, an upper trough
upstream is forecast to move through as shortwaves. This is
forecast to shift the center of lower pressure back over the
area. With this, winds should shift directions and or become
lighter for most of the area. A surface convergence boundary or
two should also develop with the low over the area, allowing
some showers and storms to fire up with the bit of moisture
recovery from the prior night. That being said, the current
forecast still favors mostly dry air near the surface which
should help limit instability and keep most showers/storms sub-
severe. The strongest storm or two may be able to produce some
large hail if it rides the boundary and stays up long enough.
Otherwise, the main concern for tomorrow would be some sporadic
wind gusts around 60-70 mph. Blowing dust could be a concern
directly near storms, but would likely mix out with the steep
lapse rates.

Saturday night could have showers and storms linger into the
night with the low remaining over or near the area. They
shouldn`t be severe short of a gust or two to 60-70 mph as they
dissipate. A mix of clouds and clear skies is forecast otherwise
with lows in the 60s and 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 143 PM MDT Fri Aug 15 2025

Sunday through Wednesday, high temperatures are forecast to
generally be in the 90s as the upper ridge reamplifies over the
Rockies. 100s are possible, but not currently forecast due to
the ridge axis being west of the area and some potential
intrusion from the trough over the Great Lakes region. Low
chance afternoon/evening showers/storms remain forecast with the
usual activity off the higher terrain in Colorado and maybe a
few shortwaves.

Later in the week, more upper troughs are forecast to begin
moving through the Plains, giving us a chance for a bit cooler
weather. Still have highs in the 90s for now as the racks and
amplitude vary, but if one moves more over the Central Plains,
then highs in the 70s/80s could occur. Storm chances will remain
fairly low each day unless the deeper trough scenario pans out.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 514 AM MDT Sat Aug 16 2025

VFR expected to prevail at both KGLD and KMCK through the TAF
period. There is a low probability, less than 20%, of a shower
or thunderstorm impacting KGLD this evening with brief gusty
winds.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...024
SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...KAK
AVIATION...024