905
FXUS63 KICT 171130
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
630 AM CDT Sun Aug 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot and dry through Monday, with heat indices around 100 degrees.

- Low rain chances Tonight into Monday, with better chances
  beginning Monday night and lasting through early Wednesday.

- More seasonable temperatures arrive mid to late week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 307 AM CDT Sun Aug 17 2025

Water vapor imagery/RAP analysis continue to show the mid/upper
ridge sprawled across the Southern and Central Plains extending
eastward into the Middle and Lower Mississippi Valley area. This
will bring a continuation of hot and mostly dry weather conditions
over the next several days with little if any change from the
previous forecast.

Late tonight into Monday morning we could see a complex of showers
and storms, better chances across northeast Kansas. Some of
this activity may brush our forecast area and some low pops were
maintained late tonight into Mon morning although most areas
are expected to remain dry. Another hot day is anticipated with
highs in the mid and upper 90s.

A stray shower or two will remain possible Monday night but
confidence in more widespread wetting rain remains fairly low at
this time. A shortwave trough moving over the Upper Mississippi
Valley area on Tuesday may help to break down the mid/upper ridge
while driving the effective frontal boundary southward towards the
area bringing increasing chances for showers and storms on Tue.
Another hot day is anticipated with mid and upper 90s common for
most areas.

As the frontal boundary moves south of the area on Wed the focus for
deep moist convection should also move south of the area although
some low pops were maintained given some uncertainty. More
seasonable air is anticipated in the wake of the front with highs
around 90 expected on Wed.

Thu-Sat...The mid/upper ridge axis is progged to remain anchored
over the Central Great Basin area through the period keeping light
northerly mid/upper flow over the Central Plains region. A robust
mid/upper trough is progged to deepen over the Great Lakes area late
in the week which should drive another intrusion of cooler air as we
move into early next week. Seasonably cool conditions are expected
through the period with highs mostly in the upper 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 628 AM CDT Sun Aug 17 2025

Southerly winds will pick up with a few gusts to around 20 knots
in our central KS locations while speeds are expected at or
around 12 knots elsewhere. VFR is anticipated today although we
could see an isolated shower or storm in parts of central KS
this afternoon. Other isolated storms could impact parts of
central Kansas tonight but probabilities remain too low to
mention in TAFs.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MWM
AVIATION...MWM