948
FXUS63 KLBF 170824
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
324 AM CDT Sun Aug 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) late this afternoon
  into tonight across north central into west central and
  central Nebraska. Damaging winds, and large hail are possible
  with the strongest storms.

- The threat for thunderstorms, some strong, will continue
  Monday afternoon and evening with a marginal risk (level 1 of
  5) across western and north central Nebraska.

- Above normal high temperatures are expected through the middle
  of next week. A cool down into the upper 70s to low 80s is
  expected late next week.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 324 AM CDT Sun Aug 17 2025

An MCV was noted on radar over Chase and Perkins County early
this morning. Showers and a few thunderstorms continue to lift
slowly northeast across southwest Nebraska. Surface low pressure
extended from eastern Colorado into the northwest Sandhills.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 324 AM CDT Sun Aug 17 2025

For Today, the MCV over southwest Nebraska will bring a chance
for rain showers and a few thunderstorms through daybreak in
southwest Nebraska and into central Nebraska mid morning.
Late this afternoon, a surface boundary will become draped from
near Ellsworth through Valentine. The CAMS, as well as the
NAM12 begin to develop convection late this afternoon across
portions of north central Nebraska, with upscale growth expected
into the evening hours, mainly southeast of Thedford through
Springview. The westward extent of development is uncertain.
The severe threat late this afternoon into tonight, is supported
by modest deep layer shear from 25 to around 30kts. SBCAPEs are
from 2500-3500 J/kg across the east. Therefore, a marginal
risk for severe storms is forecast by SPC, and covers most of
the forecast areas except portions of the southeast panhandle
and southwest. Some heavy rainfall is also possible, mainly east
of an Ainsworth through Broken Bow line. Most of the activity
should move southeast out of the area soon after midnight.

Monday, mid level flow will become more zonal, as the upper
ridge becomes centered over western Kansas into the Four
Corners. Highs expected to reach 90 to 95 degrees with a light
east to southeast wind. A frontal boundary should be located
further south, closer to the Highway 2 and 91 corridor. Another
round of showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop
during the afternoon into the evening, shown to initially
develop in the west and track southeastward. Deep layer shear
will be stronger at 35 to 40kts. A marginal risk for severe is
forecast by SPC for all of western and north central Nebraska.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 324 AM CDT Sun Aug 17 2025

Beyond Monday night, the upper ridge will become established
over the Four Corners. This will lead to a mainly dry forecast
for Tuesday through Thursday with highs at least into the upper
80s to lower 90s. An upper trough from the Northern Plains will
drive a cold front through the area Thursday night, with cooler
highs from the upper 70s to mid 80s expected, along with an
increased chance for showers and storms.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1240 AM CDT Sun Aug 17 2025

VFR conditions expected tonight into Sunday. There is a chance
for isolated thunderstorms tonight, this could briefly lower
visibilities and have erratic wind gusts. Confidence is low in
storms moving over KLBF and KVTN terminals so have left the
mention out of the taf. Winds tonight will be light out of the
east southeast around 5 to 10 kts. Winds will then become
southerly Sunday morning around 5 to 10 kts.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Buttler
SHORT TERM...Roberg
LONG TERM...Roberg
AVIATION...Gomez