Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 300527
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1227 AM CDT Thu Jun 30 2022

.UPDATE...
Issued at 901 PM CDT Wed Jun 29 2022

Thunderstorms chances have decreased with the loss of daytime
heating. A forecast update is in place using the short term model
blend for isolated shower and thunderstorm chances the rest of
this evening. The areas of concern are across nrn Nebraska and
across wrn Nebraska where storm activity could progress east along
the Cheyenne divide.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 307 PM CDT Wed Jun 29 2022

Satellite imagery indicates strong insolation with scattered
mid/high clouds over central and western Nebraska. Temperatures
are well on their way to triple digit readings this afternoon and
the hot, dry airmass is creating very steep lapse rates in the
boundary layer. This is helping to drive very blustery conditions
as high momentum air from a robust low level jet is mixed down to
the surface. Expect the strongest gusts over 40mph will generally
be east of highway 83 through before winds diminish early tonight.

The radar is starting to perk up with showers/thunderstorms
developing off to our west as a weak cold front approaches and
generates scattered thunderstorms. The lack of moisture is
helping to limit instability available to support convection, but
given the favorable wind environment with DCAPE values around 1700
J/Kg expect any storms will be capable of producing strong gusty
winds and damaging winds. The greatest wind threat will generally
be north of Interstate 80, especially north of highway 2, and
west of highway 183 before convection along the boundary
dissipates early tonight. Expect the front will be quite sluggish
as it moves through the region overnight, leading to a large
gradient in temperatures with overnight lows ranging from the
upper 50s over the Pine Ridge to the lower 70s across eastern and
southern Nebraska.

With the front still in the area tomorrow temperatures will not be
as hot as today with highs ranging from the lower 80s near the Pine
Rodge to the middle and upper 90s along and south of the Interstate
80 corridor. Late in the day, a surface wave will slide along the
boundary as short wave energy streams in aloft. This will generate
thunderstorms across western Nebraska and northeast Colorado that
will then slide generally eastward along the boundary along south of
I-80 and possibly curling up a bit back to the northeast. Higher
theta-e air will be pooling along the boundary and help boost
instability available to support convection and 0-6km bulk shear
profiles support some organized storm clusters. Expect this will be
enough to support the marginal severe threat in the current SPC Day
2 outlook with a large hail/isolated wind damage threat.
Thunderstorms will diminish later Thursday night but expect there
will be enough support from the upper trof axis moving through as a
deep upper low spins over southern Canada to keep some isolated
showers percolating around through daybreak Friday.


.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 307 PM CDT Wed Jun 29 2022

Ensemble guidance is showing a strong signal for reamplification
of an upper level ridge in the western US through early next week.
This will start building a dome of hot temperatures over the high
plains with temperatures trending to above or well above normal.
The evolving pattern also looks present a period of active weather
as deeper moisture is drawn into the region with the promise of
daily chances for thunderstorms and the potential for meaningful
rainfall though it may be somewhat localized.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1227 AM CDT Thu Jun 30 2022

VFR will primarily continue for western and north central
Nebraska through Thursday night. A cool front will push through
the forecast area this morning, signaling a wind switch from
south/southwest to northwesterly. A few gusts to 20 kts are
possible ahead and along the front or in the vicinity of light
rain showers ongoing overnight. Coverage of these showers will
continue to be minimal. Late this evening, a somewhat stronger
system will overspread southwest Nebraska, resulting in more
widespread showers and thunderstorms. Brief drops in visby and
increase in winds are possible after 01/00z at KLBF.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 307 PM CDT Wed Jun 29 2022

Hot, dry, and windy conditions will continue to drive Red Flag
conditions across central and western Nebraska through early this
evening. Recovery tonight will be poor especially in central
Nebraska with humidity only climbing to 50 to 60 percent.
Along with critical wind and humidity, lightning from scattered
thunderstorms this evening may ignite new fires, especially in zones
204, 206, and 208. In addition, some storms may produce damaging
wind gusts in excess of 60 mph (mainly zones northern 204 and 208).

Winds behind a weak cold front will shift to a northerly direction
and remain gusty, though minimum relative humidity values look to be
in the 20 to 30 percent range. Additional thunderstorms are possible
Thursday evening/night with the greatest potential for both
lightning and a wetting rainfall across southwest Nebraska.

Heading into the weekend, moisture will gradually increase over the
High Plains with relative humidity values expected to remain above
critical levels through the weekend and into the first part of next
week. There will also be a chance for afternoon/evening
thunderstorms just about each day through the first part of next
week.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 526 AM CDT Wed Jun 29 2022

               Today`s forecast high     Record (year)
North Platte            101                104 (1911)
Valentine               104                105 (2002)
Broken Bow               98                104 (1911)
Imperial                102                108 (1916)

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CDC
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...Snively
FIRE WEATHER...MBS
CLIMATE...MBS


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