Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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573
FXUS63 KLBF 182326
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
526 PM CST Sun Nov 18 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 343 PM CST Sun Nov 18 2018

A cold front will move through the area tonight. Behind the front,
Mid level moisture will saturate toward the surface. While lift
will be very weak, cold air advection should be sufficient to
include a chance for flurries across north central Nebraska after
midnight, and into central Nebraska late tonight. Also kept a
mention for flurries until mid morning Monday west of Valentine
thorugh Broken Bow. Mainly cloudy skies in the morning, with some
break in clods in the afternoon. Have lower highs a few degrees to
the lower 30s far northeast, and near 45 far southwest.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 343 PM CST Sun Nov 18 2018

A warm front will move east Monday night, setting the stage for
above normal temperatures Tuesday through Friday. An upper ridge
across the Great Basin Tuesday will flatten out and move east
across the region through Thanksgiving Day. Mild highs in the
upper 50s to around 60 can be expected for both Wednesday and
Thanksgiving Day. A disturbance will move across the area
Thursday night. Moisture will increase east of the upper trough
axis with a slight chance for rain late Thursday night into Friday
morning across the far eastern zones. Mild Pacific air behind
this system with H85 temperatures from 7 to 9 Celsius and highs
Friday reaching the mid 50s.

Medium range models diverge on the forecast synoptic pattern
Saturday into Sunday. The 12z ECMWF develops a closed low over
the Four Corners region Saturday night, then across the TX
panhandle and Oklahoma Sunday. This would potentially bring snow
chances to western Nebraska. The latest GFS moves a positively
tilted open wave across the region, with mainly dry conditions
across Nebraska. The latest gridded forecast now does include a 20
to 30 percent chance for snow Saturday night into Sunday. A cold
front will move through Saturday limiting highs to the upper 40s,
then colder Sunday from the mid 30s to around 40.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 526 PM CST Sun Nov 18 2018

An arctic cold front will arrive across northern Nebraska
overnight and transition across western and north central Nebraska
by 09z Monday. Cloud cover will increase with passage of the front
and may lead to MVFR ceilings at the KVTN terminal by 15z Monday.
Light snow or flurries are possible at the KVTN terminal overnight
as well. Cloud cover will increase overnight at the KLBF terminal,
however, ceilings will remain VFR over the next 24 hours with the
lowest ceilings around 10000 FT AGL after 15z Monday morning.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Roberg
LONG TERM...Roberg
AVIATION...Buttler



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