Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 312022
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
322 PM CDT Sat Oct 31 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 322 PM CDT Sat Oct 31 2020

A progressive H5 pattern was present across the CONUS
this morning. High pressure was anchored off the coast of northern
California with a ridge extending north into the Alaska Panhandle.
East of this ridge, a strong shortwave trough of low pressure
extended from northern Manitoba into northern Wyoming. East of this
feature, low amplitude ridging was present from the western Great
Lakes north into southern portions of Hudson Bay. Further east, a
trough was present over the Canadian Maritimes. Closer to the
Central Plains, the trough of low pressure aloft, had forced a cold
front through the forecast area earlier this morning. Winds behind
this feature were from the northwest and were quite gusty this
afternoon. Wind speeds as of 2 PM CDT ranged from 25 to 35 MPH and
readings ranged from 56 to 63 degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 322 PM CDT Sat Oct 31 2020

Temperatures will be the main forecast challenge in the near
term. Looking at BUFKIT soundings, winds will quickly decouple
after sunset. As high pressure builds into western Nebraska
overnight, the combination of light winds, dry air and light
westerly winds, will lead to chilly lows tonight. For the low
forecast tonight, we utilized a blend of the MET and MAV guidance
and undercut it a degree or two to reflect the light westerly
winds. Surface high pressure will build southeast into eastern
Kansas on Sunday. Southerly winds will increase on the back side
of the high Sunday afternoon. H85 temps will begin to increase on
the back side of the high, however, the warmer H85 temps will not
reach most of the forecast area until after peak heating tomorrow
afternoon. Highs Sunday will be mainly in the 50s with possible
readings around 60 in the far west. For Sunday night, lows will be
milder across the forecast area with the core of the cold air now
east of the area.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 322 PM CDT Sat Oct 31 2020

Very mild and dry conditions will prevail this week as low
amplitude ridging and zonal flow continues across the western and
central CONUS. There is a hint of a developing trough of low
pressure in the west next weekend. ATTM the trough will remain
well west of the area through Saturday, so a dry forecast will
continue. As for highs next week. The NBM came in with mainly 60s
to around 70 for highs each day which was on the low end of the
statistical guidance. That being said, highs in the extended were
increased a couple of degrees from the NBM. even with the
increase, based on H85 temps approaching the mid to upper teens
each day, highs may end up reaching the mid to upper 70s next
week. Record highs next week are generally in the lower 80s, so
records are not expected to be broken.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Sat Oct 31 2020

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. Surface
winds will remain northwesterly and gusty across western and north
central Nebraska through the afternoon. Wind shear will become a
concern for both KLBF and KVTN around midnight and last through
the early morning hours as surface winds decrease but strong winds
continue off the surface. Tomorrow morning winds will become calm
and begin to shift to the south.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Buttler
SHORT TERM...Buttler
LONG TERM...Buttler
AVIATION...Meltzer



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