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000
FXUS63 KLBF 021131
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
631 AM CDT Thu Apr 2 2020

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 424 AM CDT Thu Apr 2 2020

Near-term concerns continue to revolve around the potential for
wintry precipitation causing travel impacts across much of western
and north central Nebraska today through early Friday morning.

Have elected to expand the Winter Weather Advisory south to the I-80
corridor plus Perkins County given reports of freezing drizzle and
anticipated freezing drizzle and snow expected to redevelop later
tonight. Wednesday evening sounding data from both LBF, DDC, and DNR
depict overall dry air in the mid-levels with limited moisture
recovery expected through the daytime Thursday across the region
until stronger lift more closely associated with the main h5 vort-
max can lead to the column saturating. NWP guidance has been slow to
pick up on the strength of the cold air advection occurring in the
post-frontal environment but the trend to lower temperatures from
consecutive runs of the larger-scale models is noteworthy and as
such have gone with the colder solutions for daytime highs today.
This puts the area with 20s to low 30s across the area and expands
the area that`s expected to remain at or below the freezing mark
through the day. With weak lift owing to loss of stronger fgen and
the best vorticity advection holding off until tonight, have elected
to decrease PoPs during the daytime today but stopped short of
removing them completely. Believe intermittent drizzle will continue
today as low stratus remains entrenched over the region. What
drizzle does occur, may lead to localized patches of freezing
drizzle. Slick conditions will become more prevalent tonight as
temperatures once again begin to drop quickly through the evening.
As this does, the main PV Anomaly will be moving onto the northern
High Plains. This will bring in much colder air in the mid-levels
which will help to compress the temperature gradient and ramp up
fgen in the h5-h7 layer. This will act to saturate the temperature
profile and lead to a transition to all snow for the entire area
late tonight through early Friday morning. Both the NAM and GFS
advertise a narrow band (roughly 50 miles across) developing this
evening, dropping moderate snowfall from roughly northeast Colorado
through north central Nebraska. While most NWP guidance develops
this band, the placement is less agreed upon and thus confidence in
location is medium at this time. Given the magnitude of cold air in
place, we will see snow ratios approach climatological values,
especially across the Sandhills. Thinking snowfall amounts for
tonight through early Friday morning will max out around 1" with the
heaviest amounts across the western Sandhills. This is hedging on
the lower end of NWP QPF output as performance in recent weeks has
been less than stellar. Should we see better performance this go-
around, then we may be a little light on the total snow/ice amounts.
Will need to monitor closely. Temperatures at h85 will fall to
around the -8 to -10 degrees C range, which is well below the normal
for April 3rd of around 5 degrees. This translates to very cold
temperatures and lows generally in the teens and wind chills around
zero. If necessary to be out Friday morning, be sure to bundle up.

Precipitation will wind down Friday morning as we approach midday.
Trough axis will clear the area and subsidence behind the departing
wave in addition to approaching high pressure from the north will
help lead to clearing skies across the area. While we should see a
slight warm up due to increased sunshine, temperatures will still
remain well below normal for the day with highs in the mid 30s north
to low 40s south of Interstate 80. Dry conditions are anticipated
for the remainder of the day with mid-level height rises and dry air
in place. What snow that has fallen from the night before will
mostly melt away during the day. Will need to monitor for potential
for fog Saturday morning though the greatest potential may remain
east given the proximity and location with respect to the center of
high pressure. Lows will fall into the teens to low 20s across the
area.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 424 AM CDT Thu Apr 2 2020

Beginning 12z Saturday. General active pattern continues in the
extended with multiple disturbances approaching the area within a
general southwesterly flow pattern. Temperatures will moderate
heading through the remainder of the weekend with highs reaching the
60s and 70s for all by Monday. A weak system will bring Slight
Chances for rain on Sunday, but coverage will remain limited with
many locations remaining dry. Another modest system will again scoot
by the area on Monday with NWP guidance disagreeing spatially and
temporally. Thinking greatest potential for precipitation will be
east of here but will leave PoPs across north central Nebraska for
Monday. Will be watching for a cool front to slide through on
Wednesday bringing a slight cooldown but little else in the way of
sensible weather. As we approach the end of the week though both the
ECMWF and GFS advertise a strong cut-off h5 disturbance moving out
of the Four Corners Region and onto the central to southern plains.
While finer details will not be known until next week, it appears to
bring a good amount of moisture along with it and another possible
cooldown as we approach the middle of April.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 631 AM CDT Thu Apr 2 2020

Freezing drizzle and MVFR (locally IFR) cigs are underway across
much of western and north central Nebraska. This trend will
continue through this evening, when a broad transition to snow
occurs. A round of slightly heavier snow will move through the
area after 03/00z, resulting in a bigger drop in visby.
Precipitation tapers and cigs begin to lift toward sunrise Friday.
However, gusty north winds will be an issue during the entire
forecast period.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM CDT /6 AM MDT/ Friday for
NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-094.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Jurgensen
LONG TERM...Jurgensen
AVIATION...Snively