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000
FXUS63 KLBF 081121
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
621 AM CDT Sat May 8 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 407 AM CDT Sat May 8 2021

At 08Z, surface low pressure extended from eastern MT, through
central WY and across southeast CO into eastern NM. A
strengthening southeasterly low level jet is triggering showers
and even a few elevated thunderstorms from Cherry County into
southwest SD. Temperatures across western NE remained fairly mild
in the upper 40 and lower 50s with winds from the southeast 10 to
20 mph.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 407 AM CDT Sat May 8 2021

For today, a 500mb low and trough will move east of the Northern
and Central Rockies and onto the Northern and Central High Plains.
This will push a cold front to near Highway 83 by mid afternoon.
To the east, southeast winds will become east to northeast during
the afternoon. Ongoing showers and a few thunderstorms will
persist across north central NE through daybreak. Chances for
showers and a few thunderstorms will increase today as a
disturbance currently over Utah reaches western NE and northwest
KS later this afternoon and height falls occur in response to the
closed low over MT. The highest POPS will be east of VTN through
BBW, where deeper moisture and lift exist. Chances across
southwestern areas look isolated. Any strong to severe storms will
be to our south and east across KS and far southeast NE.

The cold front will quickly drop south of the area this evening.
Shower chances will diminish during the evening along with a few
thunderstorms possible across southeastern areas until mid
evening. Small shower chances will linger across northern NE after
midnight. With a colder airmass in place, lows from 34 to 40 are
forecast. However with a mainly cloudy sky and north breeze, frost
conditions will not occur.

On Sunday, surface high pressure will extend across the Northern
and Central Plains. There will remain a slight chance for showers
across northern NE as an upper trough lingers over the Dakotas.
With a cool airmass in place high only near 50 much of north
central to near 60 far southwest.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 407 AM CDT Sat May 8 2021

Sunday night, an upper level trough will deepen over the Great
Basin. Downstream, persistent upslope flow will be strongest
across eastern CO into western KS and will combine with a coupled
300mb jet. This will cause rain showers to develop across across
those areas. This activity will approach the southwestern
forecast area overnight. Across the majority of western and north
central NE, surface high pressure will lead to some clearing and
light winds. Guidance lows are around 32 across the northern and
central Sandhills by Monday morning, which may lead to frost and
freeze conditions in these areas. The extent of cloud cover will
have a significant affect on low temperatures. At this time, frost
is forecast across portions of north central into central NE. This
could necessitate the need for a frost or freeze headline. Will
work out the confidence level with upcoming forecasts.

Monday into Tuesday, the 500mb trough will slowly migrate east
with the best chances for widespread precipitation across the
southwestern half of the forecast area Monday night into Tuesday.
The GFS is much wetter and favorable for precipitation than the
ECMWF. Model consensus has been trending drier the past day.
Temperatures will improve Wednesday with warmer and drier
conditions Thursday and Friday. Highs Monday and Tuesday will be
in the 50s, with lower to mid 60s Wednesday. Thursday and Friday
will be much warmer with readings in the 70s to near 80.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 621 AM CDT Sat May 8 2021

Light rain showers are currently impacting northern Nebraska. Brief
reductions in visibility could be seen at KVTN through the morning.
Rain will slowly spread southeast impacting KLBF by late afternoon.
Embedded thunderstorms is also possible with these showers
especially in the late afternoon and evening. In addition to
precipitation, winds gusting to 25 knots are also expected this
afternoon at both sites.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Roberg
SHORT TERM...Roberg
LONG TERM...Roberg
AVIATION...Kulik