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000
FXUS63 KLBF 031147
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
647 AM CDT Mon Aug 3 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 406 AM CDT Mon Aug 3 2020

At 08Z, surface high pressure was centered from the eastern
Dakotas into eastern Nebraska. Another morning of cool
temperatures ranging from 52 at Broken Bow to 58 at O`Neill. A
narrow band of showers and thunderstorms from near Chappell
through extreme northeast Colorado into northwest Kansas.
Otherwise skies over western Nebraska remained mostly clear.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 406 AM CDT Mon Aug 3 2020

For today, The ongoing narrow band of showers and thunderstorms
are forecast to maintain development north and eastward this
morning to near Mullen through North Platte. This is mainly
indicated by the last few runs of the HRRR and RAP. Models have
shown increasing moisture advection since last evening, with the
focus along an eastward advancing 700mb front. This is not
expected to be anything more than isolated in coverage, but any
shower could contain brief heavy rain. Not seeing any focus this
afternoon except for partly to briefly mostly cloudy skies
southwest into central Nebraska. Highs today look similar to the
past few days from near 80 west to 76 to 79 east. Winds southeast
10 to 15 mph, with gusts to 20 mph in the west.

For tonight, A low level jet develops, with an increase in deeper
moisture advection. MUCAPES range up to 750 J/KG west of Cody
through North Platte. Therefore, a slight chance for
showers/thunderstorms over the western Sandhills and southwest.

On Tuesday, instability increase in the afternoon with MUCAPES
ranging from 1500-2000 J/KG west of Ainsworth through North
Platte. A slight chance for showers and a few thunderstorms
Tuesday morning across central areas. With northwest flow aloft
and deep layer shear of 35-40KT, scattered storms should develop
mainly across the northwest by late afternoon. A few strong storms
are possible, with areas near and west of Cody through Hayes
Center. Inverted-V soundings across the west support the threat
for strong downburst winds with any thunderstorms, with a fairly
moist layer above 750MB and much drier below. Isolated large hail
also possible.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 406 AM CDT Mon Aug 3 2020

Storms initiating Tuesday afternoon will track southeast and
weaken by late evening. As mentioned above, any storms may contain
strong downburst winds and large hail. Multi-models indicate at
least a scattered coverage of evening precipitation, with the GFS
and ECMWF indicating the most in coverage. Current pops are in the
likely category most locations during the evening, then lowering
after midnight.

Storm chances do continue into Wednesday/Wednesday evening as a
weak front draped across north central Nebraska sags southward. A
marginal risk for severe storms across all of southwest Nebraska.
Latest model consensus is for thunderstorms in the southern
panhandle and northeast Colorado to congeal into a few convective
clusters, moving across areas mainly south of Highway 2.

On Thursday, the upper ridge axis begins to reach the region, A
tap of subtropical moisture is shown with convection developing in
the higher terrain to our west Thursday afternoon and potentially
reaching the western Sandhills late afternoon then growing upscale
Thursday evening, mainly across the south. Current POPs arean`t
too high only up to 30 percent. However, if forecast trends
continue, higher POPS are warranted.

Friday through Sunday, the upper ridge will expand over the region
as an upper trough moves into the western U.S. This means hotter
temperatures at least into the lower 90s and with dewpoints in
the mid and upper 60s to result in muggy conditions across the
central and eastern areas. Storm chances lessen with the influence
of the upper ridge with just a slight chance for a few late
afternoon and evening thunderstorms possible, with much less
activity expected than previous days.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 646 AM CDT Mon Aug 3 2020

Conditions will remain mostly stable through the morning hours.
Isolated thunderstorms may be possible across portions of
southwest Nebraska this morning, but confidence is low. Cloud
bases will begin to lower through the afternoon and evening at
LBF, reaching their lowest tomorrow morning, but conditions will
remain VFR. Winds will be out of the southeast between 5 and 15
knots.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Roberg
SHORT TERM...Roberg
LONG TERM...Roberg
AVIATION...Gomez/Meltzer