Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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959
FXUS63 KLBF 161110 AAA
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service North Platte NE
510 AM CST Fri Nov 16 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 350 AM CST Fri Nov 16 2018

The area of dense high clouds across MT should move south into nrn
Nebraska this afternoon. Without these high clouds, conditions for
warm high temperatures would be very favorable. The temperature
forecast still leans on the warmest guidance, the GFS MAV, for highs
in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

An arctic cold front dropping through srn Canada this morning should
arrive in nrn Nebraska early this evening. The rain-snow forecast
uses a model blend plus the HREF. Model soundings show a dry layer
of air around 700mb preventing any seeder-feeder process. Moisture
is excellent otherwise. Thus, snow growth will be confined to levels
of 800mb of below with just a dusting expected overnight. QPF of
0.01 inches or less is in place tonight.

The potential for freezing drizzle is very limited for the following
reasons: 1) the front is fast moving. 2) winds are west today and do
not back around tonight. 3) model soundings show a very thin moist
layer of about 50 mb. There is some potential for a brief period of
freezing drizzle but the models suggest no accumulation.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 350 AM CST Fri Nov 16 2018

An upper trough cuts through the northern Plains over the weekend,
with its axis bisecting the forecast area early Sunday morning. A
ridge then builds over the Great Basin, slowly expands toward the
High Plains early week, and breaks down around Thanksgiving. At the
surface, high pressure settles into the region in the wake of the
snow event, but then gives way to a series of weak fronts.

Saturday... Strong H5-7 fgen and increased moisture associated with
a stout shortwave will support a band of light snow across western
Neb. Overall, the focus for heavier snow has been shifted primarily
toward the WY/NE border where better low level moisture lies.
Forecast soundings indicate a period of deeper moisture from AIA to
IML with just a few bouts of saturation to the east. In addition,
lift is relatively weak during the event with omega generally under
10ub. The thermal profile has also warmed slightly below H7,
effectively reducing the depth of the DGZ. All these factors result
in a lower threat for accumulating snow, and have cut snow totals.
The highest totals remain west of Hwy 61, where accumulations of 1
to 1.5 inches are possible. An equal hazard to the snow is the large
contrast in temperatures and blustery north winds. Wind chill values
in the single digits and teens will feel up to 60 degrees colder
than Friday.

Sunday and beyond... The building upper ridge will result in a
gradual warming trend with highs reaching the lower 50s for SW Neb
by Monday and most of the region for Tuesday. The ridge also keeps
the better moisture east of the area, so the frontal passages will
likely be dry. Indications point toward a seasonable Thanksgiving
(highs in the 50s) and primarily dry.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 510 AM CST Fri Nov 16 2018

VFR is expected throughout wrn and ncntl Nebraska today.

An arctic cold front dropping through srn Canada this morning
should arrive in nrn Nebraska early this evening. MVFR cigs should
become widespread from north to south as the front moves south
overnight. IFR cigs/vsby in -SN are expected to develop along and
west of highway 61 as the front progresses south also.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...Snively
AVIATION...CDC



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