961
FXUS63 KLBF 081122
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
622 AM CDT Sun Sep 8 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures rising to well above normal Monday and persisting
  through the through the first part of the workweek.

- Mainly dry conditions expected through Wednesday, followed by
  at least a slight chance of precipitation for portion of the
  area Wednesday night through Friday night.

- Elevated Fire Weather conditions Monday through Wednesday
  mainly sandhills into the panhandle.

- Potential for showers and thunderstorms increasing mid to late week,
  along with blustery winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 340 AM CDT Sun Sep 8 2024

A low level jet nosing into southwest Nebraska along a lingering
frontal boundary is providing enough lift to realize elevated
instability aloft and generate isolated showers and thunderstorms
extending into northeast Colorado. Bufkit indicates the elevated
CAPE is approaching 1000J/kg before daybreak so will have to
keep a close eye on radar trends as any robust updrafts may be
able to generate some hail and gusty winds. This activity will
wane as the low level jet gradually diminishes after daybreak
and anticipate the bulk of Sunday will be capped and dry across
the region with afternoon highs a few degrees warmer than
Saturday as readings reach the low/mid 80s east, mid/upper 80s
west.

Sunday night will have potential to repeat the bloom of
isolated thunderstorms as robust low level jet once again noses
up from the south and may act on elevated instability to trigger
convection. Will once again maintain some very low POPs of 10
to 15 percent for isolated thunderstorms mainly along and south
of I-80 overnight Sunday night. Lows tonight will be in the 50s.

Guidance remains consistent in breaking down the upper ridge
over the Rockies heading into Monday which allows temperatures
to rise well above normal through the early part of the workweek
with readings well into the 90s. Monday looks to be the day of
maximum heat with highs in the mid/upper 90s from the sandhills
into the panhandle, low/mid 90s along and south of I-80, and
around 90 further to the east. Given the dry airmass in place
and low humidity values expected, dangerous heat index values
are not anticipated. However it will still be quite hot so stay
hydrated and take frequent breaks in a cool place.

A short wave will quickly move through the Rockies in the less
amplified pattern aloft and may have a good chance to break the
convective cap late on Monday. While there will be a pool of SBCAPE
values at or above 1500J/kg, shear is weak and the big question
is whether the dry airmass will have enough moisture to support
convection. Meso guidance is not enthusiastic about convective
potential in the dry airmass and depicts only a few isolated
showers/storms, though given the steep lapse lapse rates in the
deeply mixed boundary layer any storms that do manage to form
will have an efficient environment to generate gusty winds.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 340 AM CDT Sun Sep 8 2024

Temperatures aloft remain around the 90th percentile and EFI/SoT
guidance continues to show a signal for heat, mainly across
northern Nebraska, through Wednesday. By mid to late next week
there has been little change in solutions as energy moving into
the PacNW will drive a deep closed low into the Rockies before
shearing off to the north and moving into southern Canada. This
will amplify southerly winds across the High Plains with winds
at 850mb into the 99th percentile by Thursday, along with a
continued pronounced in EFI/SoT guidance for windy conditions
late next week ahead of passage of a slow moving cold front by
the end of the week/start of the weekend. This will increase
the potential for showers/thunderstorms Wednesday night onward
with a trend toward cooler temperatures closer to normal heading
into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 621 AM CDT Sun Sep 8 2024

VFR conditions will prevail across western and north central
Nebraska through the effective TAF period. Winds are expected to
remain mostly light out of the south this afternoon, with gusts
generally below 20 knots. Overnight, as a low level jet develops
over southwest Nebraska, may start to see some LLWS concerns for the
southern terminals. Included the LLWS at KLBF for tonight for
awareness, but LLWS timing will likely be refined as confidence
increases in direction and speed in subsequent forecasts. Otherwise,
there may be a chance for isolated thunderstorms tonight across
southwest Nebraska, however have omitted from TAFs at this time due
to low confidence in development and potential impacts to terminals.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 340 AM CDT Sun Sep 8 2024

Elevated fire weather conditions are likely Monday through
Wednesday across western Nebraska, notably in fire weather zones
204, 206, and 208. Upper level ridging will contribute to well
above seasonal high temperatures, with afternoon highs pushing
into the 90s across most of western and north central Nebraska.
Additionally, minimum relative humidity values drop into the 15 to
20 percent range, with overnight recovery into the 55 to 65
percent range. Winds will remain southerly to southeasterly and
gusts above 25 miles per hour are not expected over the lower
relative humidity values. The best chances for wind gusts above 25
miles per hour will be Monday afternoon and early Tuesday morning
in fire weather zone 209, where minimum relative humidity values
will be in the 30 to 40 percent range. Precipitation chances
remain very low through mid week, with less than a 20 percent
chance for isolated thunderstorms across southwest Nebraska early
Monday morning.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...Richie
FIRE WEATHER...Richie