817
FXUS63 KLBF 131914
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
214 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above average high temperatures /in the lower to mid 90s/ are
  expected through Tuesday for most locations.

- A notable cooldown will occur mid-week with high temperatures
  running some 10-20 degrees below normal. There is a high
  />80%/ likelihood of highs in the 70s Wednesday and Thursday.

- Unsettled conditions return late Monday with the greatest
  chance of precipitation and potentially severe weather on
  Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 214 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

Through much of the day today there has been very little clouds of
note across west central Nebraska, though recent imagery shows some
cumulus starting to develop across the central Sandhills.  The
development is tied to a weak area of convergence associated with a
sfc trough.  Surface heating has been maximized under full sun with
instability shown to be as high as 3K j/kg east of the boundary.  A
prominent cap is in place however and thus highly questionable that
the cumulus would be able to utilize the instability.  CAM guidance
has backed off early runs where storms fire across north central
Nebraska this evening, though we`re not ready to completely say
chances are nil.  Thus will continue slight chance wording from
generally central Holt to Custer Counties.  If storms were to form
and briefly become severe, the main impacts would be marginally
severe hail and severe outflow.  Otherwise the overnight and most of
Monday should be fairly quiet as high pressure prevails over the
Rocky Mountain west.  WAA on Monday will increase which will yield
warmer daytime highs.  Ensemble guidance has strong agreement in the
high forecast for Monday with lower to mid 90s CWA wide. Increasing
low level moisture and greater convergence along the sfc trough will
spark off greater chances of thunderstorms Monday after and evening,
though the threat for widespread severe weather remains relatively
low.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 214 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

Cluster analysis largely points to a shortwave that breaksdown the
western Conus ridge early next week, though there still remains
discrepancies with the timing of the Pac NW shortwave.  That being
said, guidance strongly suggest a cooldown Tuesday evening and
beyond.  As would be expected with potential timing issues, the
ensembles paint a broad range of temperatures on Wednesday, yielding
lower confidence for southern portions of the forecast area.  The
ensembles then become in good agreement for Thursday with highs
generally in the 70s CWA wide and then a general warmup thereafter
as high pressure re-establishes itself across the Rocky Mountain
West.  The NBM seem to be a reasonable solution based on the
differences with timing, so very little change was needed. Otherwise
sfc features will dictate where the greatest rain/thunderstorm
chances will be this upcoming week.  There will be sufficient
moisture in place for locally heavy rainfall and possibly severe
weather.  At this point Tuesday looks to have the greatest potential
of widespread severe weather as the guidance indicates impacts from
a convective complex.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

VFR to prevail for the 18z TAF cycle. Winds will be diurnally
driven and have the potential to gust to 12kts during peak
heating, but remain generally light. Guidance does suggest an
outside chance at -TSRA developing along a weak boundary late
afternoon/evening generally east of a KBBW to KONL line, however
given trends, guidance appears to be overdone on developing
convection. Overall forecast confidence is very high for both
KVTN and KLBF.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Jacobs
LONG TERM...Jacobs
AVIATION...Jacobs