608
FXUS63 KLBF 132323
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
523 PM CST Mon Jan 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light snow is possible tonight near and north of Highway 20 in
  north central Nebraska with generally less than a half inch
  accumulation expected.

- Dry conditions as well as a warming trend with highs
  returning to the 40s and low 50s by Thursday.

- The next chance of snow arrives Friday night and continues
  into Saturday night. Light snow accumulations are possible,
  mainly near and west of Highway 83.

- Behind the departing system, a very cold airmass will move
  into the region this weekend. This will result in highs only from
  5 to 15 above and lows from 5 below to 15 below by Sunday and
  Monday. Wind chill values will approach 20 below zero or
  colder.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 255 PM CST Mon Jan 13 2025

Across western Nebraska this afternoon, A warm front had moved
east into central Nebraska. Temperatures had warmer to near 45
at North Platte, with upper 30s to low 40s across the remainder
of the central Sandhills and southwest with westerly winds 15 to
25 mph in some locations. Even northern Nebraska had reached
into the low to mid 30s, except upper 20s at O`Neill.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 255 PM CST Mon Jan 13 2025

A disturbance currently located from eastern Montana into
northwestern South Dakota will track southeast this evening and
overnight. Light snow will develop along an arctic front
dropping southward tonight. The latest mesoscale models,
including the NAM nest and HRRR develop very light QPFs to a few
hundredths of an inch for areas near and north of Highway 20
from near Valentine through O`Neill. Snowfall amounts will be
light, from a dusting up to a half inch. The timeframe will
mainly be between 03Z and 09Z. The arctic front will bring lows
down to zero to five below across Boyd and northeast Holt
County. Lows in the teens across the west and southwest, where
the front will not move into.

The arctic front will retreat eastward on Tuesday with westerly
winds across the west, and light southerly across the east.
Highs will be coldest across the northeast, where O`Neill
reaches only 20. Across the southwest, highs to reach the mid to
upper 30s. Skies will remain partly to mostly cloudy through the
day however, ahead of a weak upper trough embedded in northerly
flow aloft. Clearing skies Tuesday night with lows from 10 to
around 15.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 255 PM CST Mon Jan 13 2025

An upper ridge will be in place across the Western U.S on
Wednesday. A westerly downslope wind will increase to 10 to 20
mph by afternoon with highs from the upper 30s to mid 40s.

An upper trough will drop southward across British Columbia,
Alberta, and Saskatchewan Canada. Much warmer across the Central
and Northern Plains as the upper ridge flattens out. Forecast
highs were raised a few degrees to the upper 40s to lower 50s
across much of the area. The upper trough will continue to dig
south through the Central Rockies and Northern Plains on Friday.
This will bring a cold front through in the morning, with gusty
northerly winds 20 to 30 mph in the afternoon. Forecast highs
mid to upper 30s north central to mid 40s south could trend
lower, if the cold front and colder air moves in quicker.

Friday night through Saturday night, light snow is possible,
mainly across the west and southwest as the upper trough and
arctic front surges southward. NBM 24 hour probabilities of an
inch or more snowfall is 40 to 50 percent for the southeast
panhandle and for Keith, Perkins, and Chase County in southwest
Nebraska. The probabilities quickly drop off east of these
areas.

An arctic airmass will persist Saturday through at least
Monday. The latest NBM is a few degrees colder with highs from
the teens to around 20 Saturday, and only 5 to 15 above Sunday
and Monday. While dry conditions are expected Sunday and Monday,
bitter cold temperatures with lows as cold as 15 below Saturday
night and Sunday night will result in wind chill values
approaching 20 degrees below zero or colder.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 522 PM CST Mon Jan 13 2025

For the KLBF terminal: Expect mostly clear skies overnight with
increasing mid level cloudiness Tuesday morning. Ceilings will
be around 10000 FT AGL on Tuesday and will persist into the
afternoon hours. For the KVTN terminal: Skies will remain cloudy
over the next 24 hours. Ceilings will fall to 2000 to 4000 FT
AGL this evening ending up around 1500 FT AGL after 09z Tuesday.
Ceilings will increase to around 3500 FT AGL late Tuesday
morning. There will be a minor threat for light snow over
northern Nebraska late this evening into the early overnight
hours. Will handle this with a VCSH group as snow intensity is
expected to be very light and isolated in coverage.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Roberg
SHORT TERM...Roberg
LONG TERM...Roberg
AVIATION...Buttler