Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 190838
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
338 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 337 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2019

The main concerns for the next couple days will be the return of
afternoon and evening thunderstorms. A series of shortwaves will
move off the Rockies into western and central Nebraska on both
Wednesday and Thursday. Modest instability (afternoon CAPE values
near 2000 J/kg) and steep lapse rates across the central Sandhills
will lead to a potential for severe storms. Current SPC guidance
supports this with a marginal risk at this time. Thunderstorms will
gradually diminish overnight as the better instability moves
eastward.

A brief break in active weather is expected for Thursday morning.
Another chance of thunderstorms return for the late afternoon and
evening as another shortwave moves across the region. While the
latest SPC guidance has north central and portions of western
Nebraska outlooked in a slight risk of severe weather, current model
guidance has the most favorable instability to the east of our
forecast area (across eastern Nebraska). Current thinking is that
storms on Thursday evening will be elevated thunderstorms. These
thunderstorms, while not feeding off surface instability, will still
be capable of producing large hail (up to 1 to 2 inches) and
torrential rainfall. Will continue to monitor instability and
guidance over the next day when we will higher confidence in severe
potential.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 337 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2019

The active pattern will continue through the end of the week, into
the weekend, and into the beginning of next week. While confidence
is high on thunderstorm potential, confidence is low in severe risk
potential. At this time, thunderstorms appear to be diurnally driven
forming in the late afternoon and quickly dissipating over the
overnight hours. Will be keeping a eye on these systems as
confidence becomes stronger on whether severe storms will be
possible or not.

Drier weather returns on Tuesday as high pressure tries to nudge
into the region. Another chance of thunderstorms return on Tuesday
evening. Again, severe weather risk is uncertain at this time.

For temperatures, highs remain in the upper 70s to low 80s for
Wednesday and Thursday. Highs will drop into the 70s for Friday
through Sunday. A few locations across the northwest Sandhills may
even only see highs in the upper 60s. Highs return to the 80s by
next Tuesday. Low temperatures start off in the 50s for Wednesday
and Thursday nights, drop into the upper 40s and low 50s through the
weekend before rising back into the 50s for the beginning of next
week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1241 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2019

Areas of IFR/MVFR low ceilings will continue across portions of
central/western and southwest Nebraska till around 16Z (mid-
morning). Ceilings should lift after that with VFR expected by the
afternoon hours today. Winds will gradually increase from the
south around 5 to 10 kt after sunrise.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kulik
LONG TERM...Kulik
AVIATION...Taylor


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