Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 151810 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
110 PM CDT Sun Apr 15 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 110 PM CDT Sun Apr 15 2018

Updated for expiring winter weather advisory.

18z aviation discussion updated below.

UPDATE Issued at 1055 AM CDT Sun Apr 15 2018

Light snow still wrapping into the far eastern CWA late this
morning and is expected to finally end this afternoon. Dont expect
any additional accumulation and will let the winter weather
advisory expire at 1 pm. Otherwise, expect a slow decrease in
clouds across the east through the day with a quick decrease in
snow cover with the mid April sun. Highs will be mostly in the 30s
with lower 40s across the northwest over the snow free areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 334 AM CDT Sun Apr 15 2018

An upper level low pressure system, currently over southern Iowa, is
still spreading light, accumulating snow into far eastern SD and
western MN. Several hi-res models suggest the wrap around snow will
continue through the early afternoon hours before diminishing. Have
already extended the winter weather advisory until 18Z. Hopefully
this system will exit the area by then.

Along the Missouri Valley, skies are beginning to clear, which
should allow for temperatures to drop into the teens and single
digits. The coldest reading will occur in south central SD where
several inches of fresh snowfall is located.

A surface high pressure will slowly drift across the region today
through Monday bringing below normal temperatures. Besides the pcpn
today, the rest of the short term will be dry.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 334 AM CDT Sun Apr 15 2018

The period opens with an exiting upper trough as the first of two
lows and upper troughs migrates into the Plains. Models have been
very consistent on timing of the two systems in the extended. The
first, on Tuesday night/Wed will bring a mix of rain and snow.
However, because it will primarily affect the region in the
overnight and early morning hours, chances for snow and/or freezing
rain increase due to expected sfc temperatures. At this time a
widespread snow accumulation of up to 2 inches is possible. The
second system will barrel through Plains on Friday and Saturday.
This system will also bring a mix of rain and snow. Placement is
still a big question with this second low as models have been
wobbling between a more southern position which would keep much of
this cwa in the clear and a more northern route which would place us
in the crosshairs. Daytime highs will be fairly stable in the upper
30s to 40s through next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 110 PM CDT Sun Apr 15 2018

Some MVFR light snow will remain into the afternoon at ATY with
MVFR/low VFR ceilings expected through the night into Monday
morning. Otherwise, the rest of the airports are expected to be VFR.
Although, some lower ceilings may sneek close to ABR later
tonight/early Monday.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Mohr
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Mohr



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