Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 170115 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
815 PM CDT Fri Mar 16 2018

Issued at 759 PM CDT Fri Mar 16 2018

Opted to drop Warning headline at expiration time (7 PM CDT) but
in its place, went with a winter weather advisory through 1 AM CDT
Saturday for all the freezing drizzle potential per model
soundings in BUFKIT. Still a little portion of precipitation band
(likely part snow/part freezing rain) left over working up through
Hand/Spink counties. Will monitor for need to expand Wint Wx Adv
over into Spink County, if precipitation persists there.

See below for an aviation forecast discussion for the 00Z TAFs.


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 313 PM CDT Fri Mar 16 2018

Main forecast concern is the continuation of the storm system
currently affecting parts of the area. As far as the Aberdeen CWA
goes, the precipitation has remained mainly in the form of freezing
rain and sleet just over the southwestern portion of the area, with
little to no snow. Currently watching a band of precipitation
wrapping around the north side of the low into southern South
Dakota. It appears that the precipitation associated with this band
has begun to turn to snow, so anticipate the freezing rain will come
to an end as this band approaches. Question then becomes how long
the precipitation remains, as there is pretty good model agreement
that the precipitation will begin to fizzle out this evening and
come to an end by midnight or so. Will bank on this happening for
now and will adjust the forecast accordingly. Tough call as far as
headlines are concerned since conditions are likely hazardous in the
areas where the precipitation has been occurring, so am leaning
toward leaving them in place into the evening.

The system exits the area late tonight as high pressure moves in,
resulting in dry conditions on Saturday.

Low temperatures tonight will be in the upper teens to lower 20s,
with highs on Saturday in the mid 30s to lower 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Evening through Friday)
Issued at 313 PM CDT Fri Mar 16 2018

The long term remains somewhat active, with a continued semi-
progressive mid level pattern across the CONUS. The main system
early in the period is expected to propagate across the region
Sunday through Monday. In what appears to be a somewhat chaotic
split flow, the main mid level low is expected to track across the
Central/Southern Plains. However, some energy gets kicked north into
the western Dakotas on Sunday, and then tracks slowly east over the
area once it gets picked up by an advancing northern stream trof.
Saturation with this system looks decent from sfc-H5, but UVM is
somewhat sporadic and therefore of low confidence. Model blend
came in with fairly low pcpn amounts, so that looks okay. Warm air
aloft will provide for a likely mixture of pcpn types Sunday and
Sunday night, with mostly just snow for Monday. An upper ridge
then builds across the region, with dry weather expected, until
toward the end of the period. Temperatures are anticipated to
average out near to below normal until late next week when they
should turn warmer.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 759 PM CDT Fri Mar 16 2018

KPIR should see a mix of IFR/MVFR cigs/vsbys tonight as
light snow ends, but fog and freezing drizzle possibly persist.
The other terminals may experience patchy fog/freezing drizzle as
well in sub-VFR cigs and/or visbies later tonight, per short range


SD...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM CDT /midnight MDT/ Saturday
     for SDZ015-033>037-045-048-051.



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