Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD

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FXUS63 KFSD 211913

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
213 PM CDT Sat Apr 21 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 209 PM CDT Sat Apr 21 2018

Considerable cloud cover persists across most of the area today, but
a few breaks are beginning to develop across northern Iowa and
southern Minnesota. Temperatures are responding well to the breaks
in the clouds, jumping into the 50s over areas with lingering snow
in northwest Iowa. The overall forecast through the next seven days
remains quiet, and at least a bit more "Spring-like".

Tonight:  Clouds will continue into the overnight hours, but I`d
expect a few more breaks in the clouds. With light winds remaining
in the area, and snow  melt, anticipating some fog development by
Sunday morning.  Just how widespread that fog will be is in
question.  For now, have penciled in lower visibilities where snow
exists this afternoon.

Sunday: Temperatures will warm even further on Sunday, perhaps even
approaching normal levels in some areas. I still have some concerns
about cloud cover lingering, since fragments of the upper trough are
still in the region in the afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 209 PM CDT Sat Apr 21 2018

Monday:  A really, really nice day is expected on Monday. Shortwave
ridging moving across the forecast area will push warmer low-level
temperatures eastward.  Despite the light mixing, anticipating
temperatures into the 60s over most of the forecast area.

Tuesday: Latest guidance continues to push the next upper trough
moving into the Plains a bit further south and southwest, tracking
the upper low across Western Nebraska and into Eastern Kansas by
Wednesday.   The operational GFS remains an outlier in the model
solution cluster, and has generally been discounted in favor of the
ECMWF/NAM/GEM cluster.  This concept would bring a chance for light
rain mostly to areas west of the James River, and a chance for
sprinkles further east during the day on Tuesday.  Following the
lead of the drier solutions, have also bumped up temperatures a bit
over MN/IA Tuesday afternoon.

Wednesday-Thursday: Again, a period of weather with little impact to
the area.  Slightly cooler temperatures for Wednesday behind this
system.  The next progressive wave moves through the Northern Plains
on Thursday, racing a frontal boundary southeast by daybreak. Little
in the way of moisture with the system, so not anticipating any
widespread rainfall. Temperatures remain slightly below normal

Friday-Saturday: Mid-level heights start to rise quickly by the end
of the week into next weekend, and this should spell the potential
for a really nice weekend ahead. Light winds and temperatures into
the 60s appear likely. In fact, some ensemble guidance pushes
temperatures closer to 70 in a few areas. Bumped up high
temperatures a couple degrees across the area.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Sat Apr 21 2018

A few sprinkles will be possible over parts of the area through
mid afternoon. Otherwise, light southeasterly winds with VFR
conditions expected through the TAF period.




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