Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 160900

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
400 AM CDT Wed May 16 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 345 AM CDT Wed May 16 2018

Today will be mostly sunny and warm with most locations in the mid
80s. Winds will be southwest around 5 to 10 mph. The forecast is
dry, with the only chance of rain expected to stay northeast of the
NWS Twin Cities forecast area.

Early morning satellite imagery with RAP13 surface analysis showed
clear skies across the region with a baggy pressure gradient leading
to light southwest winds overnight. There was an area of clouds and
precipitation across northern Minnesota, and this could affect
northwest Wisconsin later today.

Meanwhile expect tranquil weather over most of Minnesota and western
Wisconsin today. Although winds will be light, the southwest
direction is favorable for warm temperatures, so continued the trend
of going above guidance for afternoon highs today. Overnight winds
will be light, but high clouds will filter in from the west.
Dewpoint depressions should remain low enough to prevent the
formation of fog except perhaps near open water such as a marsh or

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Wed May 16 2018

Long term concerns remain convective threat and overall model
trends into the weekend.

Models continue overall trend with developing some mid level
instability over the northern CWA Thursday afternoon and evening.
Appears to be a surface boundary associated with the northern MN
cold front/lake breeze front. Threat for showers/thunder will be
modulated by how far south this boundary will be by Thursday
afternoon. Will continue the chance PoPs over the northern
portion for this potential. Otherwise, temperatures will again be
warm with increasing through the low/mid 80s most areas. The
dewpoints will also rise through the mid/upper 50s making it feel
more humid.

The main thunder threat moves back into the Dakotas Thursday night
and gradually spreads east with the cold front. Latest model
trends have slowed the front some as the upper short wave trough
over the western CONUS tries to merge with the northern stream
trough over the weekend. Still think the best chance for
showers/thunder arrive Friday night to the west, spreading east
Saturday/Saturday night. Timing will be continued to be affected
by how the short wave trough moves through the area into Sunday.
Thunder threat appears to be limited with MUCAPEs / best LI`s/ and
mid level lapse rates rather meager with best thunder potential
limited to the west Friday night and mainly over the southern CWA
Saturday/Saturday night.

Following the front, model trends continue to favor cooler
conditions with the abundant cloud and shower threat over the
weekend. High pressure builds into the area which should bring dry
and mild weather again. Temperatures should warm through the 70s,
or slightly above normal again by early in the week. Chance for
more showers will be rather limited to mainly the west of the area
early in the week as another trough moves through the western
CONUS. Models diverge on how much ridging will be brought east
over the area. Will have to retain some lower end PoPs for this
later Tuesday for now.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Tue May 15 2018

VFR conditions are expected through the period, with mostly clear
skies. Light and variable winds overnight will become
west/southwesterly for Wednesday at speeds circa 8 knots, then
become light and variable again Wednesday evening.

No concerns.

Thu...VFR. Slgt Chc -SHRA in aftn. Wind S 5-10 kts.
Fri...VFR. Chc -SHRA/-TS/MVFR late. Wind SE 10 kts.
Sat...VFR with MVFR possible. Likely -SHRA/-TS. Wind N 10-15 kts.




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