Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
193 FXUS64 KFWD 132334 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 634 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 ...New Aviation... .KEY MESSAGES... - Additional scattered thunderstorms in Central Texas will be capable of producing localized heavy rainfall and minor flooding overnight into Monday morning. - Drier and hotter weather is expected Tuesday through the end of the week with heat index readings up to 105 possible. && .SHORT TERM... /Issued 119 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025/ /This afternoon through Monday/ Following a lull in activity through much of the morning, convection has blossomed once again across the Central Texas counties in association with an MCV centered near San Saba County. This feature will track northeastward within a region of high PW and healthy instability, resulting in widespread shower and thunderstorm coverage roughly south of a Goldthwaite to Waxahachie to Sulphur Springs line. Additional spurts of heavy rainfall and isolated flash flooding are likely, hence the continuation of the Flood Watch through 7 pm (and its eastern expansion as well). Farther north, believe residual stability will limit coverage across the Metroplex and the counties west through north of DFW, though some isolated cells (and even some brief heavy rain) are certainly not out of the question. The MCV proper should be dissipating or shifting east of the area by this evening, and PoPs as a result should be limited. However, a synoptic-scale mid level trough will persist over Eastern North Texas and Oklahoma overnight and Monday. With this feature loitering in the area, do expect additional scattered mainly afternoon and early evening convection to redevelop, predominately east of I-35. The overall trend of coverage should be less than that of previous days, and the flash flood threat should accordingly decrease. The region will "enjoy" one more day of daytime temperatures below seasonal norms, before summer makes its inevitable return through the week. Expect afternoon highs predominately in the 80s across the area, with a few lower 90s possible in far western North Texas. Bradshaw && .LONG TERM... /Issued 119 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025/ /Tuesday through Sunday/ Summer warmth will find its way back to Texas through the course of the coming week, though temperatures will be restrained from reaching the century mark for the time being. The persistent mid level trough which has lingered over the Southern Plains for the past few days will slide a bit further east on Tuesday and Wednesday, with the majority of our forecast area on the drier, subsident western side of this feature. Will continue with low PoPs across our eastern Red River counties Tuesday, but this will pretty much end our opportunity for organized rainfall for the next week or so. A mid level ridge of high pressure over the Southeast U.S. will slowly strengthen and broaden its span to include eastern Texas from Wednesday into next weekend. Daytime highs will climb into the mid and upper 90s through the period. Ample humidity will persist across the region, and afternoon heat indices will push into the 100-104 degree range from the latter half of the week through the weekend. These values should remain just below advisory thresholds, but those spending time outside should follow heat safety recommendations. Bradshaw && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /00z TAFs/ An MCV is presently drifting northeastward out of the Texas Hill Country towards North Texas, and is responsible for isolated convection west of the TAF sites as of 23z. This feature should be capable of initiating additional scattered showers and thunderstorms tonight into Monday morning, some of which could impact the Waco TAF site as early as 03-04z. Several hours of nearby TS are forecast for Waco overnight, with activity eventually impinging on the D10 TAF sites closer to sunrise. Have included VCTS for Metroplex airports in the morning with low confidence in timing, although chances are increasing overall that some convective activity will be present nearby as the MCV continues to make northeastward progress. In addition to convective impacts, MVFR cigs are likely to fill in overnight at heights near or just above 1 kft before lifting/scattering later tomorrow morning. There will be another chance for isolated convective development tomorrow afternoon in North Texas, but low confidence in both coverage and the placement of initiating features precludes more than a brief VCTS mention at this time. Outside of convective influences from nearby outflow boundaries, a south wind around 10 kts will prevail. -Stalley && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 73 88 75 92 76 / 30 30 10 20 5 Waco 72 87 73 90 73 / 70 40 10 10 0 Paris 71 86 72 90 73 / 50 50 20 30 5 Denton 72 89 73 93 75 / 20 30 10 20 5 McKinney 73 88 74 92 75 / 30 40 20 20 5 Dallas 73 88 75 93 76 / 30 40 10 20 5 Terrell 72 88 73 92 74 / 40 40 10 10 0 Corsicana 73 91 75 93 75 / 50 40 10 10 0 Temple 72 89 73 91 72 / 60 40 5 10 0 Mineral Wells 71 89 72 93 74 / 10 30 10 20 5 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ093>095-103>107- 118>123-130>135-141>148-156>162-174-175. && $$