389
FXUS61 KAKQ 150245
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1045 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Widespread showers, with periods of moderate to heavy rain
prevail tonight. Scattered showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms
continue Wednesday, mainly in the afternoon. Mainly dry Thursday,
with additional showers and storms Friday night into the
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1035 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Widespread showers prevail tonight, diminishing after
  midnight from SW to NE.

- The heaviest rain this evening has been located over portions
  of the southern Virginia Piedmont where anywhere from 2 to 5
  inches of rain has fallen. Otherwise, we expect 0.50 to 1.50
  inches elsewhere.

- Mainly just drizzle or very light rain Wed morning, with
  scattered showers and a few storms Wed aftn.

Heavy rain developed over portions of the southern Virginia
Piedmont this evening, with a maximum of 3 to 5 inches across
portions of Nottoway, Dinwiddie, and Lunenburg counties.
Moderate rain continues to push further to the north and east,
but rain rates have been lower compared to what occurred
earlier further to the southwest. The back edge of the rain is
quickly working into our southwestern counties, with the rain
continuing to come to an end from SW to NE as we approach
midnight.

Temps will fall into the upper 50s-mid 60s tonight with breezy
SE winds (gusts to 20-30 mph) developing near the coast just
ahead of a deepening secondary low.

The mid levels are progged to dry out from SW to NE after
midnight, so additional QPF after 06Z will be 0.10" or less to
the S of I-64, though the low levels remain saturated through
Wed morning. Have added the mention of drizzle between 09-15Z.
Otherwise, additional showers are expected Wed aftn, with the
highest PoPs over the S. Highs Wed around 80F across interior NE
NC, to the mid 60s across the far N (and perhaps barely 60F
along the MD Atlantic coast).

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 400 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Drying out on Thursday, though clouds and a few spotty showers may
  persist. Mainly dry Friday.

The sfc low will likely linger offshore of the VA coast through
a good part of Thursday. A bit of a transition day weatherwise
for Thursday. Drier conditions overall in subsidence behind the
departing trough, though low clouds may linger near the coast
through the morning (and potentially longer on the eastern
shore). We should see a decent amount of clearing inland by the
later aftn. Temps rise to the upper 60s on the eastern shore
with mid 70s W of the Bay (possibly upper 70s across the far SW).
There may be just enough instability for an isolated shower
inland during the aftn/early evening. Lows Thu night range
from the mid 50s-60F with dry wx expected.

Shortwave ridging briefly moves over the area on Friday. Another
system approaches late on Friday with a few showers/tstms possible
west of I-95 late in the day, though the trend is slower so
except over the far W, the latest forecast keeps PoPs at 10% or
less through 00Z/Sat (8PM Fri). Highs range from the low-mid 70s
at the coast to the upper 70s/around 80F well inland.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 400 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Message:

- Increasing chances for showers and storms Friday night and
  especially over the weekend.

Better rain chances arrive over the weekend as another
shortwave trough approaches from the SW. While it is still 4-5
days out, the best chance for showers/tstms appears to be on
Saturday (highest coverage likely during the aftn/evening), with
lingering showers possible on the back side of the system on
Sunday. Temps remain near seasonal averages late this week into
the weekend. Mainly dry wx returns early next week with temps
warming to slightly above average.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 820 PM EDT Tuesday...

Deteriorating flight conditions tonight due to widespread
moderate to heavy rain and low clouds. Primarily VFR to MVFR to
start out the period, but expect ceilings to lower to IFR at all
sites over the next few hours (latest at SBY). Rain may be heavy
at times, with MVFR to IFR visibilities possible. The rain will
mostly come to an end between 09-12Z (except at SBY), though
low clouds and drizzle continue through Wednesday morning into
Wednesday afternoon. Ceilings try to lift to MVFR at ECG and
potentially PHF/ORF late Wednesday morning into early Wednesday
afternoon. Ceilings likely stay IFR at RIC and SBY through the
period. Additional rain showers and potentially a few
thunderstorms will be possible Wednesday afternoon/evening.

Outlook: Conditions gradually improve Thursday into Friday.
Another low pressure system will bring showers, a chc of tstms,
and degraded flight conditions Friday night into Saturday, with
at least a chc for showers/tstms on Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 300 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key messages:

- SCA conditions expected across local waters this evening into
tomorrow for elevated winds as low pressure tracks across the area.

- SCA for coastal waters (northern zones) linger into Thurs due to
seas remaining around 5ft.

High pressure is now well offshore as low pressure approaches from
the west. Winds over most of the waters have turned to the SE at
around 15kt, but far northern waters are still showing a more
southerly direction. Buoy obs reflect seas of 2-3ft and waves at 1-
2ft (2-3ft at the mouth of the bay). Low pressure will track towards
the area tonight, crossing the waters sometime tomorrow morning.
Winds will increase this evening and into tonight as the pressure
gradient tightens. By this evenings, winds will be up to 15-20kt
(gusts to 25kt) with the highest winds located in the southern
coastal waters and lower bay. This axis of higher winds (associated
w/ enhanced pressure falls) will gradually move northward into the
rest of the coastal waters (on the nrn side of the low) into early
Wednesday. Small craft advisories are in effect for all of the
waters (upper rivers have been added) for frequent gusts to 25-30
kt, starting at 20z/4 PM today in the srn bay, 23z/7 PM for the
upper bay and rivers, 2z/10 PM for the Currituck Sound and coastal
waters S of Cape Charles, and then early Wed morning for the coastal
waters N of Cape Charles. Waves in the bay become 2-4 ft tonight.
Seas will also increase to 4-6 ft, potentially up to 7 ft given the
onshore flow. However, the relatively brief nature of the elevated
easterly winds should prevent the nearshore seas from getting too
high. Elevated seas persist longest in the nrn waters, so the
current SCA there goes through early Thursday.

Winds then become N-NE for most of the waters Wednesday afternoon
through Thursday as the low meanders offshore to our E. There is
moderate disagreement in the global models regarding how long the
low lingers and how close to shore it will be. This will result in
at least breezy northerly winds through at least Thurs night.
Current forecast has the winds just below SCA criteria for most
waters, so cannot rule out additional advisories. Conditions look to
improve for the weekend, but with onshore flow forecast, cannot rule
out seas building to 5ft just yet.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ630-631-
     656-658.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ632-634-
     638.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ633.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ635>637.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Wednesday to 1 PM EDT Thursday
     for ANZ650-652.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ654.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...AJB/LKB
SHORT TERM...ERI/LKB
LONG TERM...ERI/LKB
AVIATION...AJB/LKB
MARINE...AM/SW