423
FXUS61 KAKQ 142316
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
716 PM EDT Mon Oct 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
The cold front pushes well offshore tonight. Below normal
temperatures are expected through the rest of the week, as cool
high pressure remains west of the area through midweek, and
gradually settles across the region Thursday and Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 715 PM EDT Monday...

Key Message:

- Diminishing winds tonight with temperatures falling back into
  the 40s.

- Cool with increasing clouds and a few showers possible
  Tuesday.

Winds will continue to diminish significantly for most areas
over the next couple of hours, though areas near the coast
(especially portions of the eastern shore along the east side of
the Bay), will remain breezy overnight as colder air passes
over the relative warmth of the waters and keeps mixing going
through the night. The sky will be partly cloudy over the
eastern shore and northern piedmont and mostly clear elsewhere.
Lows will range from around 40F over rural areas well inland
(locally a few upper 30s are possible), while locations along
the immediate coast in SE VA and NE NC will have lows 50-55F.

While the core of the upper low remains centered across Quebec
Tuesday, the upper trough extends well back to the SW into the
mid MS Valley, with the next shortwave forecast to dive S
towards the TN Valley into the aftn/evening. The sky will start
off mostly sunny for at least the SE 1/2 of the CWA, but expect
a rapid increase in cloud cover by late morning or early aftn
as the aforementioned wave and associated cold pool aloft move
in from the W. It will be cooler, with highs only ranging from
the upper 50s N/NW to the upper 60s in NE NC. Moisture will be
limited (PWATs 0.50" to 0.75"), but decent lift should be enough
to support some low chc PoPs (15-30% for measurable rain)
moving into the northern 2/3 of the area by aftn. Given limited
moisture, rainfall amounts will be light, on the order of 0.10"
or less.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 230 PM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

-Cooler and drier weather through the middle of this week as high
pressure continue to moves over the region.

During the middle portion of this week an upper level trough
continues to dig across the eastern United States before ejecting
out of the region by Friday. Showers will continue to exit the
region Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Lows for Wednesday
morning will be in the upper 30s and lower 40s. Skies cover will
improve slightly across the CWA with Partly sunny skies. However,
with continues NW flow and a high pressure slowly trying to slide
over the area temperatures will be in the upper 50s and around 60 on
Wednesday. The latest 12z ensemble guidance from the CMC and GFS
does show a strong high pressure at the surface moving over the
area. The models continue to push the timing of the high pressure
further back. With the slower progression of the high pressure this
could indicate higher low temperatures for Thursday morning and
lower low temperatures for Friday morning. Will note, that both
these days have a chance to see temperatures around or below 32
degrees around the Piedmont. Depending on when the high moves over
the region other counties further east could be close to around
freezing. With these temperatures below freezing there could be
patchy to scattered frost. Sky cover over this stretch of time will
continue to improve with mostly clear to partly sunny skies. Will
note, the latest 12z model guidance does show a weak disturbance
moving off the coast of the carolinas Thursday into Friday. This
disturbance would only lead to some extra cloud cover across the
coast. However, at this time confidence is to low to add any extra
cloud cover along the coast. High temperatures for Thursday will be
in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Fridays high are forecasted to be
slightly warmer as the high moves off the NE, with highs in lower to
middle 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 230 PM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:
-Dry with seasonable high temperatures returning by this weekend

Not many changes have been made since yesterdays forecast.
Ensemble guidance is still in good agreement with this synoptic
pattern. A strong ridge will continue to build over the eastern
United States. As this ridge builds a strong high will remain
over the region at the surface. This would keep the entire
region dry during this weekend and into the start of next week.
Skies are expected to remain mostly clear through the extended
as this high continues to dominate the weather pattern. Highs
for Saturday and Sunday are expected to be in the lower 70s.
Then by Monday temperatures are expected to climb back into the
middle 70s. Lows for Saturday and Sunday will be in the lower to
middle 40s. Monday lows will be in the upper 40s lower 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 715 PM EDT Monday...

VFR conditions will prevail at the main terminals through the
00Z/15 TAF period. High clouds increase through tonight,
becoming BKN for the northern TAF sites (RIC, SBY) with less
high cloud coverage further south. Winds become NW to N and
diminish to 10 kt or less tonight. Not as windy on Tuesday
compared to today, with W to NW winds ~10 kt. The sky will
become mostly cloudy by late morning with a few light showers
possible, but CIGs and VSBYs are expected to remain VFR.

Outlook: VFR and (mainly) dry conditions will continue through
the week. NW to N winds prevail Tue night-Wed and will be breezy
on Wed. Lighter winds late in the week, as high pressure
settles into and over the region.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 310 PM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- An extended period of Small Craft Advisories are in effect
through tonight for gusty WNW winds in the wake of a strong cold
front.

- Quieter marine conditions Tuesday and Tuesday night.

- A reinforcing cold front crosses the waters early Wednesday
bringing another period of likely Small Craft Advisories.

Afternoon analysis shows the well-advertised cold front now just E
of the local waters. In its wake, W-WNW winds are elevated in the
15-25 kt range, with gusts up to 30 kt. With the offshore wind
component, seas are 2-3 ft nearshore and 3-5 ft 10-20 nm offshore.
Waves in the Chesapeake Bay are 2-3 ft. Continued cool advection
into this evening will keep WNW winds at or just above small craft
advisory criteria. Thus, have extended the SCAs through 02z/10 PM
for the upper rivers and Currituck Sound, 05z/1 AM for the coastal
waters, middle/upper Chesapeake Bay, and lower James, and 08z/4 AM
for the lower Chesapeake Bay and mouth of the bay. Based on some hi-
res guidance, local extensions for an additional hour or two may be
necessary. Otherwise, WNW winds will be much lighter for Tuesday and
most of Tuesday night (around 10 kt). Reinforcing high pressure will
drive another (mainly) dry cold front through the area early
Wednesday, with another uptick in the winds expected for most of
Wednesday and Wednesday night. Forecast winds are currently 15-25 kt
during this period, while gusts up to 30 kt are expected. Given the
deep nature of the upper disturbance and cool advancing airmass,
wouldn`t be surprised for winds to overperform, especially as high-
res guidance becomes available. Additional small craft advisories
look very likely for this period. SCAs potentially linger through
part of Thursday, before winds diminish substantially for the end of
the week and weekend, averaging NNE 10-15 kt across the southern
waters and N/NNE ~10 kt across the northern waters.

With the offshore flow, seas will remain highest well offshore, with
2-4 ft nearshore and 3-5 ft out 10-20 nm. Seas drop to 2-3 ft
everywhere after ~10z/6 AM Tuesday and average only ~2 ft most of
Tuesday. 2-3 ft (locally 4 ft) waves are expected in the Chesapeake
Bay through the rest of today and tonight, dropping to 1-2 ft
Tuesday. Another period of elevated waves and seas are likely early
Wednesday through Thursday, though 5 ft seas look to be confined to
the coastal waters S of Cape Charles per the latest wave guidance.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ630-631-638-
     650-652-654-656-658.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ632-634.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ633-
     635>637.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...AJB/LKB
SHORT TERM...HET
LONG TERM...HET
AVIATION...AJB
MARINE...SW