Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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FXUS61 KAKQ 241554
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1154 AM EDT Fri Sep 24 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
The cold front is now well offshore as cool high pressure
builds in from the west today into Saturday. A dry cold front
crosses the area Saturday night, with high pressure returning
Sunday and Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1145 AM EDT Friday...

The latest analysis indicates yesterday`s cold front is now
well offshore along with an inverted surface trough extending
to the SE of parent low pressure over the Great Lakes. High
pressure is building into the region from the SW under sunny
skies inland, with clouds slowly clearing along the coast in SE
VA and NE NC. Temperatures range from the upper 60s to lower 70s
across the region with dew pts in the 40s well inland and in the
50s closer to the coast. Still a bit breezy with N/NE winds
near the coast, with winds less than 10 mph well inland.
Minimal changes needed to the forecast with a very pleasant
afternoon for most areas: highs generally in the mid 70s and
mainly sunny (partly cloudy at the coast in SE VA and NE NC).

Mostly clear and cool tonight inland with a few more clouds
close to the water in the vicinity of the aforementioned
surface trough offshore. Overnight lows will range from the mid
40s to around 50 across the inland 2/3 of the CWA, with low to
mid 50s to the east (and locally lower 60s at the immediate
coast in the SE).

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 310 AM EDT Friday...

Quiet stretch of weather continues this weekend with precip chances
near zero both Saturday and Sunday. Afternoon highs on Saturday rise
into the upper 70s with continued comfortable humidity levels. A bit
more in the way of cloud cover Saturday afternoon/evening as a weak
short wave trough clips the northern half of the area. Not quite as
cool Saturday night with more clouds around, lows in the 50s.

Very similar weather on Sunday with fewer clouds. Afternoon high
temps in the mid to upper 70s under mostly clear skies. Overnight
lows again the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 310 AM EDT Friday...

The extended continues to look fairly quiet and seasonable. Early
next week, the models are in good agreement in showing a trough
across the east and ridging to the west. By the end of the week, the
pattern across North America becomes very blocky with a 2-3 sigma
ridge extending northward into central Canada and a upper low
over/near the east coast. Exact placement of this upper low will be
critical in the precip and temperature forecast for Thu/Friday.
General trend in the 00z guidance shows the potential for the upper
low and associated weak surface low to retrograde to the west (and
over our region) late in the week. Will follow the blended forecast
showing slight chance PoPs near the coast late in the period.

The warmest temps of the week will occur on Tuesday and Wednesday
ahead of a weak cold front. Lower to mid 80s expected with perhaps
some upper 80s across the SE, especially NE NC near the Albemarle
Sound. Temperature forecast becomes a little more problematic for
Thu depending on the exact placement of the upper low. Will cool off
temps back to mid-upper 70s for now, but I could certainly see
cooler temps if the upper low is further east. Overall most of the
area will stay dry next week, although there is a small chance for
rain ahead of a weak cold front Tue night.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 645 AM EDT Friday...

VFR flying weather will largely prevail through the 12z TAF
period but occasional MVFR CIGs will remain possible near the
coastal terminals this morning. Guidance is a bit more bullish
on a few hour period of prevailing MVFR this morning at ECG.
Conditions continue to improve today with VFR prevailing at all
terminals after mid-morning. Winds within a 10 to 20 degrees of
northerly through the period, generally 5-10 kt but closer to
10-15 kt with gusts near 20 kt for ORF and ECG into this
afternoon.

Outlook: Dry with VFR conditions are to persist over the
weekend and through Mon/Tue as high pressure builds into the
area and then slides offshore.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 220 AM EDT Friday...

Cold front now E of the local waters. N surge/low level CAA
expected into this afternoon/early this evening then wanes.
Winds increase to 15-25 kt over the bay/sound/ocean and SCAs to
remain in place (though extended into/through this evening for
the ocean waters as seas are slow to lower BLO 5 ft). Sub-SCA
conditions are expected from tonight through at least Sat
evening as sfc hi pres builds into the mid-Atlantic region.
A brief uptick in NW winds (to near 15 kt) (late) Sat night-Sun
morning as a second cold front crosses the local waters. Sub-SCA
conditions are expected early next week. Seas will diminish to
3-4 ft Saturday and 2-3 ft Sunday into next week.

A moderate rip current risk today.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for
     ANZ630>632-634-638.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ633.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ650-
     652-654.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ656.
     Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...RHR
LONG TERM...RHR/MRD
AVIATION...RHR
MARINE...ALB


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