Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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FXUS61 KAKQ 291952
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
352 PM EDT Fri May 29 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Southerly flow in advance of a slow moving cold front approaching
from the west will keep a moist and humid air mass in place
through tomorrow. A cold front is then expected to sweep across
the region Saturday evening, bringing cooler and drier air to
the region Sunday into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
As of 345 PM EDT Friday...

Forecast remains on track this afternoon with high pressure
well to the east in the Atlantic and a trough of low pressure to
the north and west of the local area. Deep southerly flow
continues this afternoon with temperatures warming into the 80s
and dew points in the low to mid 70s.

Copious low level moisture and decent surface heating due to breaks
in cloud cover over the area have allowed moderate surface-based and
mixed layer instability to develop this afternoon. SPC mesoanalysis
shows 1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE across the region and they have
maintained the Marginal Risk for severe storms today for all but the
immediate coast with the main threats coming from strong straight
line winds and isolated instances of severe hail. Some increase in
deep layer wind shear will accompany the approach of the upper
trough from the west late this afternoon/evening, though the better
kinematics remain confined to areas farther north into PA and NY.
Recent trend in hi-res guidance has been toward lower storm
chances/coverage in the wake of the storms this afternoon. However,
at least some chance for showers will linger into the late evening
hours as subtle perturbations in the S/SW flow aloft interact with
moisture already in place across the region. Conditions tonight
remain warm and muggy with lows generally in the upper 60s and low
70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 345 PM EDT Friday...

Upper level trough and surface cold front approach the region
on Saturday with the cold front forecast to swing from NW to SE
through the course of the afternoon and early evening. Ahead of
this boundary, there is some potential for strong storms to
develop from late morning into the afternoon. SPC has outlined a
Marginal Risk area across SE VA and NE NC, primarily for
damaging straight line winds and isolated instances of hail. The
greatest chance for thunder will exist from roughly the
Richmond metro south and east where 1000-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE
will overlap 20-30 knots of deep layer shear. Temperatures will
be able to warm into the low and mid 80s in the prefrontal
airmass. The front should be through most of the area by
Saturday evening with decreasing temperatures and humidity. Lows
Saturday night fall into the mid 50s NW but linger into the low
60s SE.

All precip should be well offshore by sunrise on Sunday with
skies continuing to clear from NW to SE through the morning.
Much drier and pleasant on Sunday afternoon with highs rising
into the low and mid 70s. Much cooler on Sunday night with lows
in the upper 40s NW to low/mid 50s for the remainder of the
area. Continued dry and comfortable on Monday with high pressure
overhead, highs into the low 70s with mostly clear skies.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 345 PM EDT Friday...

High pressure and dry conditions are expected Monday night and
Tuesday. Several rounds of showers/storms are possible mid-late
week as multiple shortwaves move through and NW flow dominates.
Otherwise, expect a warming trend by mid-late week with the
first 90F days of the year possible for many locations.

Low temps Mon night will be in the low 50s. Lows Tues night will be
warmer in the low to mid 60s. Lows Wed and Thurs nights will range
from the mid to upper 60s before cooling slightly to the low to mid
60s on Fri night. Highs Tuesday will range from the upper 70s to
near 80F with mid 70s expected along the Eastern Shore. High Temps
Wed and Thurs will range from the upper 80s to the lower 90s with
mid 80s expected along the Eastern Shore. High temps cool slightly
to the mid 80s with upper 70s to lower 80s expected along the
Eastern Shore.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 205 PM EDT Friday...

Scattered showers and a few afternoon/evening tstms have begun
to form and are expected to become more widespread later this
afternoon/early evening. It will be hard to time when any one
location will receive a showers/thunderstorms this afternoon,
so mostly have VCSH during the time frames when this would be
most likely. Will amend any tafs to include thunder once storms
begin to approach any given terminal and confidence increases
that thunder will be in the vicinity of the airport. Primarily
VFR/MVFR conditions currently in place are expected to continue
through the early evening before most terminals see an
improvement to VFR ceilings late this evening/overnight.
However, with any showers and storms, a drop to low MVFR/IFR
ceilings will be possible as well as reduced visibilities to 1
to 2 miles. A second round of brief MVFR ceilings due to stratus
will be possible by early tomorrow morning but should clear out
by the afternoon.

Winds are primarily S around 5 to 10 kt and will become SW
tonight/early tomorrow morning before becoming W/NW by tomorrow
afternoon behind the cold front which begins to push through
the region. Gusty winds will be possible with any storms.

OUTLOOK...Another round of showers/thunderstorms will be
possible at all taf sites except SBY by late Saturday
afternoon/evening as a cold front approaches and pushes across
the area from the west. Becoming drier Sat night and Sun, as the
front pushes out to sea and high pressure begins to build in
from the NW.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 345 PM EDT Friday...

Southerly winds continue this afternoon. Generally 5-10 kts in the
bay and 10-15 kts over the coastal waters. Waves in the bay 2-3 ft.
Seas are 3-4 ft southern coastal waters and 3-5 ft northern coastal
waters. SCA runs until 06Z for the elevated seas. S/SW flow on
Saturday ahead of an approaching front from the west. Winds 5-15
kts. Waves in the bay 1-2 ft and seas 2-4 ft.

Front crosses the area waters late Saturday night with the winds
turning to the N/NW behind the front. The brief CAA surge will
likely result in SCA winds in the bay Sunday morning into the
afternoon.

Low risk of rip currents this weekend.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...RHR
SHORT TERM...RHR
LONG TERM...RMM
AVIATION...RMM
MARINE...CMF



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