Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000 FXUS61 KALY 250429 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 1229 AM EDT Sun Mar 25 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A mid-level low pressure system will bring a few flurries or light snow showers to the area tonight, then dry weather will return Sunday. Dry weather will continue into early next week with a gradual warming trend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... As of 1229 AM EDT...Small area of snow over the central Mohawk Valley has started to show signs of weakening recently, but did result in a quick 1-2 inches of accumulation from Fonda to Sprakers in Montgomery county. This area of snowfall is fairly progressive and should continue pushing south into the Schoharie Valley and the Catskills early this morning, with up to an inch of snowfall possible. Increased PoPs and coverage of snow showers to account for this activity. Elsewhere, midlevel moisture will increase from the northeast through the night coincident with a backdoor wind shift boundary, supporting additional isolated to scattered snow showers spreading northeast to southwest across much of the region. Accumulations still generally expected to be little more than a few tenths of an inch, except above 1500 feet in the Greens, Berkshires, and Catskills, where up to an inch could occur. An upper level area of low pressure dives southeast through central New York. This area of low pressure has a very strong vort max associated with it and despite a lack of moisture with the system, there could be light snow accumulations of a few tenths of an inch to perhaps an inch. The highest snowfall total should be across the southern Green Mountains. Lows overnight will be in the mid teens to mid 20s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Any lingering snow showers should come to an end Sunday morning followed by high pressure building into the region. The area of high pressure will build across southern Canada with the ridge axis extending southwest across our region by late Sunday night and remain across our region through at least Monday night. Highs on Sunday will be in the mid 30s to mid 40s with some upper 20s across the highest terrain. Lows Sunday night will be in the mid teens to mid 20s. Highs on Monday will be in the upper 30s to mid 40s with lows Monday night in the upper teens to mid 20s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Tranquil conditions early in the long term look short-lived, as temporary mid/upper level tropospheric ridging breaks down and shifts downstream into the western Atlantic, with a digging trough developing upstream across the upper midwest and shifting east toward the end of the week. So mild and dry for Tuesday, with some clouds increasing late in the day. Highs mainly in the mid 40s to lower 50s in valleys, and upper 30s to mid 40s for higher terrain. The first in a series of upper level features approaching from the west should bring some rain showers to the region late Tuesday night into Wednesday. However, this initial upper level feature looks to be weakening, so shower coverage could become limited as it tracks farther east. It should remain fairly mild ahead of a weakening cold front, with Wednesday highs reaching the 40s and 50s. Tuesday night lows may occur early, with upper 20s to mid 30s, before potentially rising later at night. If precipitation arrives sooner than currently indicated, there could be a brief wintry mix across portions of the Adirondacks and higher terrain areas of the Catskills. A stronger piece of upper level energy may approach from the west/southwest for Thursday night into Saturday. A strengthening low/mid level baroclinic zone, coupled with increasing southern stream moisture could allow for widespread moderate to locally heavy precipitation to develop during this time period if enough phasing of upper level energy occurs. Depending on where the aforementioned baroclinic zone sets up, there could be rain, or rain/snow mix changing to snow, especially across the Adirondacks and Mohawk Valley region late Friday into Saturday. As always, trends will need to be watched, and there certainly remains a possibility that phasing of upper level features do not time quite right, which would allow for a less organized period of precipitation for the region. For now, expect temperatures to average slightly above seasonal levels for Thursday-Friday, trending below normal for Saturday. Highs should reach the mid 40s to lower 50s for lower elevations, and mid 30s to lower 40s across higher terrain Thursday and Friday, with highs mainly in the 30s for higher elevations, and lower/mid 40s across valley areas on Saturday. However, much cooler max temps will be possible Friday if widespread steady precipitation occurs. Overnight lows should mainly be in the 30s, except 20s for some higher terrain areas Friday night. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A few flurries are possible early this evening along localized convergence zones north of KPOU, with flight restrictions not expected. Midlevel moisture will increase late tonight from the northeast coincident with a weak backdoor wind shift boundary at the surface, bringing the possibility of isolated to scattered snow showers. Not enough confidence to go with anything more than a VCSH mention at this time, although brief vsby restrictions are possible in any more robust snow shower. This activity should be south of the terminals by 13Z at the latest, and another day of prevailing VFR conditions is expected as high pressure noses in from the north. Winds will be from the west to northwest at KALB/KPSF and north to northeast at KPOU/KGFL early tonight at 5 to 10 kt. A weak wind shift boundary will cause winds to veer to the north- northeast after 06Z at KALB/KPSF at around 5 to 10 kt. Winds will remain out of the north-northeast at around 10 kt on Sunday. Outlook... Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. && .FIRE WEATHER... A mid-level low pressure system will bring a few flurries or light snow showers to the area tonight, then dry weather will return Sunday. Dry weather will continue into early next week with a gradual warming trend. && .HYDROLOGY... No hydrologic issues are anticipated into the middle of next week, as mainly dry weather is expected. Isolated to scattered snow showers are possible tonight into Sunday morning, with light accumulations possible. A slow diurnal snowmelt will occur over the next several days, with temperatures above freezing during the day and below freezing at night. There will be little impact on the waterways with minimal, if any, rises. A moderating trend is then expected for the middle to latter part of the upcoming work week, which may be accompanied by a period of widespread rainfall. Runoff will likely increase during this time, although it is uncertain how much rainfall will occur. River rises are likely during this time. For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...11/JPV NEAR TERM...11/Thompson/JPV SHORT TERM...11 LONG TERM...KL AVIATION...Thompson FIRE WEATHER...11/JPV HYDROLOGY...11/JPV is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.