028
FXUS64 KAMA 181720
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1220 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM ...
(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 240 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024

Dry and warm weather continues to be the theme this weekend for
the Panhandles thanks mostly to an upper-level ridge that
continues to build over the top of us. For today, a weak lee-side
low is expected to slide down the southern Rockies, which will
result in light northerly winds for majority of the afternoon.
However, this shift in the low may also invite a couple of high
based thunderstorms to our far north as they develop off the Front
Range and move east. Regardless, impacts from any storms will
likely be minimal as most model do not have much in the way of
CAPE and wind shear present for the day. Rather, the bigger focus
for this weekend will continue to be on the temperatures and how
much they will heat up. For today, afternoon high temperatures are
likely to be in the low 90s for the majority of the combined
Panhandles, while the lack of wind will allow places like the Palo
Duro Canyon to nearly reach triple digits. Meanwhile Sunday, will
see this heat further amplified thanks to another surface low
setting up good southwesterly flow over the Panhandles. Expect
temperatures to rise into the mid to upper 90s for most locations
with decent chances of our hotter locations reaching that 100
degree mark.

Scoleri

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 240 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024

Monday is still expected to be a hot day for the panhandles as the
southern plains will still be under the influence of a ridge.
Southerly gusty winds will help to bring in warmer air that will
aid these hot temperatures. This will see the highs in the 90s to
lows 100s across the panhandles. This will change come Tuesday as
a trough ejects out of the desert southwest across the plains.
This will see the highs fall to the 80s and 90s for the
panhandles. A little moisture should move across the panhandles
during this time but it looks to be sufficient enough to only
cause some cloud cover. If enough moisture sneaks its way into the
panhandles a rain showers or thunderstorms could then occur. Winds
will shift to become more SW to WSW on Tuesday as the trough
pushes through. A cold front associated with this system should
pass across the panhandles late on Tuesday to early on Wednesday.
The passage of the front will shift the winds rapidly to the
north. This front looks to be dry so no active weather is
expected to occur during its passage. Even the cooler air behind
the front doesn`t look to be promising with roughly a five degree
drop in the highs. This may allow a few spots to dip to the upper
70s for highs otherwise it will be in the 80s across the
panhandles. Wednesday through Friday the pattern looks to become
broadly zonal with weak ridging across the southern plains. This
should serve to warm the panhandles back to the 80s and 90s during
this time. Winds are likely to shift to a southerly direction
under this pattern being weakly gusty during the day and weak at
night. Some return moisture may push up from the gulf during the
late work week but this is more likely to be to the east of the
panhandles in OK proper. If a sufficient amount of moisture grazed
the eastern panhandles then rain showers and thunderstorms may
occur however unlikely.

SH

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1217 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024

VFR conditions are anticipated through the next 24 hours. There is
a very low chance for a shower to develop this afternoon in the
Oklahoma and central Texas Panhandle, thus possibly impacting
KGUY and KAMA. If this happens, there could be a strong downdraft
associated with the shower. Otherwise, surface winds will
generally be around 10-15 kts and turn southeasterly this evening
then southerly to southwesterly tomorrow morning. Low-level wind
shear is expected at KGUY tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                59  97  58  97 /   0   0   0   0
Beaver OK                  62  97  57  97 /  10  20  10   0
Boise City OK              53  92  53  93 /  10  10   0   0
Borger TX                  63 102  59 101 /   0  10   0   0
Boys Ranch TX              58  99  55  99 /   0   0   0   0
Canyon TX                  57  97  55  96 /   0   0   0   0
Clarendon TX               61  96  60  97 /   0  10   0   0
Dalhart TX                 52  93  51  93 /  10   0   0   0
Guymon OK                  58  96  54  96 /  10  10   0   0
Hereford TX                57  98  55  97 /   0   0   0   0
Lipscomb TX                64  96  60  98 /   0  10  10   0
Pampa TX                   63  96  59  97 /   0  10   0   0
Shamrock TX                63  96  60  97 /   0  10  10   0
Wellington TX              63  97  62  99 /   0  10  10   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....98
AVIATION...52