Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
116 FXUS64 KAMA 161936 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 236 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM ... (This evening through Friday night) Issued at 234 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024 Looking at current GOES-16 water vapor imagery an mid to upper level pressure is centered right around the White Sands and Mescalero Reservation in south central New Mexico. The associated trough with this system as already brought some showers and thunderstorms to the southwestern Texas Panhandle southward towards Muleshoe. Showers and thunderstorms will continue to be possible early this afternoon for the southwest and possibly western TX Panhandle. However, it will not be until later this evening when the aforementioned low pressure system moves into portions of West Texas and the southern TX Panhandle when the southern portions of the FA can see some slightly higher chances for rain again. Currently there is some decent bulk shear around 30 to 35 kts based on this mornings KAMA upper air sounding. However, there was a measly 45 J/Kg of MLCAPE with a very stout cap. Late this afternoon as the cap weakens and MLCAPE is progged to jump to around 800 to 1000 J/Kg of for spread across the southern TX Panhandle. However, some low clouds have been playing a role in overall heating today and bulk shear is progged to fall to around 20 kts or less when the main system comes across. Severe storms are not anticipated due to these factors, but cannot completely rule out an isolated severe storm with one inch hail and 60 mph plus wind gusts late this afternoon/evening. Some of the CAMS are excited about storm activity as far north as the I-40 corridor with others keeping all the activity to the south. The track of the upper level low and the main dynamics from it will determine how much of the FA actually gets the showers and thunderstorms. If the NAM is correct, there will be quiet a bit of negative H7 theta-e advection for much of the northern half to two thirds of the combined Panhandles. This will limit any activity to south of the I-40 corridor and may even kill any chance for Amarillo to see some moisture. The RAP solution favors areas north and south of I-40 in southern TX Panhandle, to include much of Oldham to Wheeler County north of the Interstate. Mainly between 4 PM and 10 PM this evening. With the upper level low tracking across during the late afternoon and evening hours, it should start to exit taking all precip chances with it before 11 PM. This will leave the FA in the wake of the trough and meridional flow aloft ahead of a ridge building into the area. Because of this Fri is looking dry with daytime temperatures rebounding into the lower 80s. Surface winds are progged to be light and variable through the afternoon with a pleasant day in store. 36 && .LONG TERM ... (Saturday through next Wednesday) Issued at 234 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024 Winds aloft Saturday quickly go from northwest to westerly as an upper level ridge builds into the area. With this ridge H85 daytime temperatures begin to rise to near 27 degrees C, with surface temps expected to be in the upper 80s and lower 90s for Sat afternoon. This ridge continues to build with Sun and Mon being the warmest with wide spread temps in the mid 90s across the combined Panhandles. Palo Duro Canyon may even flirt with its first triple digit day of the year with mostly clear skies. Although it is looking like it will be dry during this time. The GFS shows an upper shortwave passage, a perturbation in the ridge aloft potentially sparking some thunderstorms over portions of the north and eastern combined Panhandles. At the surface the models suggest a potential dryline in the eastern Panhandles in the afternoon. Have stuck with the NBM PoPs which leaves all areas dry with the dryline mixing well east by the time any thunderstorms can get going. Will need to keep an eye on the model trends through the weekend to see if models trend differently with the dryline and thunder potential. Late Mon into Tue morning an upper level shortwave is progged to approach the combined Panhandles. This will send a weak cold front into the area for Tue and Wed cooling afternoon temps off a bit back into the upper 70s to the northwest and 80s to the southeast for Tuesday, and widespread lower 80s on Wed. At this time the trough does not appear to bring any precip chances to the combined Panhandles, but it does to areas just north of the OK Panhandle. 36 && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1152 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024 Primarily VFR conditions are expected during the 18Z TAF period. However, KAMA and KDHT may see a shower or thunderstorm form this afternoon ahead of 00Z Friday. Confidence is low at this time for and have only mentioned VCTS in the TAF. The main system bringing the support for thunderstorms is looking to possibly have all the vast majority of thunder activity south of the TX Panhandles. Winds are looking to be easterly, less than 15 kts. 36 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Amarillo TX 72 51 80 53 / 30 30 0 0 Beaver OK 77 51 83 52 / 10 10 0 0 Boise City OK 72 46 82 50 / 10 10 0 0 Borger TX 77 53 84 56 / 60 20 0 0 Boys Ranch TX 74 50 83 53 / 40 20 0 0 Canyon TX 71 51 80 50 / 40 40 10 0 Clarendon TX 73 54 79 55 / 60 50 10 0 Dalhart TX 71 46 81 46 / 40 20 0 0 Guymon OK 75 49 83 51 / 10 10 0 0 Hereford TX 72 51 81 50 / 40 50 0 0 Lipscomb TX 76 53 82 55 / 30 10 0 0 Pampa TX 73 52 81 55 / 50 30 0 0 Shamrock TX 74 55 80 56 / 70 50 10 0 Wellington TX 75 56 80 55 / 80 60 10 0 && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...36 LONG TERM....36 AVIATION...36