658
FXUS64 KAMA 080915
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
415 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM ...
(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 355 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024

Outside of elevated fire weather for the southwestern Texas
Panhandle today, quiet weather is forecast for the Panhandles
today and Thursday. Temperatures will be a bit cooler today and
moreso on Thursday behind a secondary surge of cooler air. Breezy
winds of 15 to 20 mph are forecast for both days.

A cold front is through the entire Panhandles at the time of this
writing. The front is rather weak, with temperatures only
dropping around 5 degrees behind the front. Winds behind the front
are out of the north with gusts up to 25 to 30 mph. Winds will
decrease over the next few hours and lows will generally drop down
into the 40s.

Zonal flow is expected across the region both today and tomorrow
with low pressure to the north of the forecast area. The north
winds are expected for most of this morning before winds will
increase and become westerly this afternoon. Gusts this afternoon
could get up to the 30 to 35 mph and dry air will remain across
the area, these conditions will lead to elevated fire weather for
the southwestern Texas Panhandle. Slightly cooler air will be in
place for today behind the front so highs will range from the mid
70s north to mid 80s south. Tonight into Thursday morning a
secondary surge of cooler air behind a front will turn winds out
of the northeast through the remainder of the short term forecast.
H850 temperatures for Thursday are forecast to only rise into the
mid teens Celsius so high temperatures will only be in the 60s to
70s across the region, which is slightly below average for this
time of year. Even though breezy conditions are forecast for
Thursday, cooler temperatures and higher humidity values will
mitigate any fire weather concerns for Thursday.

Muscha

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 355 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024

Dry weather will prevail on Friday as another upper level low
pressure system organizes over the vicinity of southern Nevada,
southwest Utah, and northwest Arizona by late Friday afternoon.
Chances for showers and thunderstorms may return to the region as
early as Friday night across far western sections, and then across
most or all of the area Saturday through Monday evening as the
aforementioned upper level low pressure system moves slowly
eastward. The overall precipitation amounts and areal coverage
will depend on how much moisture returns to the area this weekend
into early next week. For now, the NBM pops look reasonable this
far out in time and were included in the grids for Friday night
through Monday night. Medium range models and associated ensembles
were in some semblance of agreement with differences noted in the
finer details surrounding orientation and timing of this next
upper level storm system.

02

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1220 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024

VFR conditions are expected with this TAF cycle. A weak front will
switch winds to out of the north with gusts in the 20 to 25 kt
range for a few hours behind the front. Winds will eventually
become westerly to southwesterly late in the morning with gusts up
to 25 kts for KDHT/KAMA. Another front will switch winds back to
out of the north to northeast starting at KGUY before 00z. All
sites will have northerly winds once again by the end of this TAF
period. Mostly clear skies are forecast for the terminals.

Muscha

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                82  48  74  46 /   0  10   0   0
Beaver OK                  77  47  75  43 /   0   0   0   0
Boise City OK              74  43  67  41 /   0  10  10  10
Borger TX                  85  50  78  47 /   0  10   0   0
Boys Ranch TX              84  48  76  46 /   0  10   0   0
Canyon TX                  82  48  74  45 /   0   0   0   0
Clarendon TX               82  51  75  49 /   0   0   0   0
Dalhart TX                 78  42  69  40 /   0  10  10  10
Guymon OK                  77  44  71  42 /   0  10  10   0
Hereford TX                84  47  75  46 /   0   0   0   0
Lipscomb TX                80  49  76  47 /   0   0   0   0
Pampa TX                   81  49  74  46 /   0  10   0   0
Shamrock TX                82  51  76  49 /   0   0   0   0
Wellington TX              84  52  78  50 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....02
AVIATION...05