Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 250736

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
336 AM EDT Wed May 25 2022

.NEAR TERM...(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 336 AM EDT Wed May 25 2022

...Abrupt transition from dry to wet...

High Impact Weather Potential...Heavy rain possible this
afternoon into tonight, especially in eastern upper MI.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...We`ve had a few days of deep dry air
in place, but we are in the process of transitioning to a much
different airmass. High pressure is being displaced, while 1005mb
low pressure advances ne-ward from eastern KS. Low level winds
increase and veer as the low approaches, ramping up theta-e
advection. Showers and a few thunderstorms, some with heavy rain,
will result.

A well-elevated area of radar returns has already developed over w
central lower MI early this morning. Most of this is still virga,
but not all, as some raindrops have been reported at LDM/
Ludington. This is developing right on the tip of a 500mb
shortwave ridge axis, i.e. at the very beginning of DPVA forcing
aloft. Hard to see this resulting in more than sprinkles or very
light rain showers as it lifts nne-ward, but may need to carry a
mention of such all the way north into eastern upper MI thru mid-

The main show gets started toward midday, as the parent surface
low moves to ne MO and se IA. 925mb winds from the se will
increase to 30-35kt by early afternoon. Those winds then veer
southerly at 40-50kt by early evening as an elevated warm front
crosses northern lower MI. Pwat values near or in excess of 1.5"
will overspread northern lower MI today, and eastern upper MI this
evening. Widespread showers will develop northward into the area
from midday thru the afternoon. These will continue tonight,
though precip coverage in se sections will diminish overnight in
developing dry slotting.

Lapse rates are generally poor, and Cape will be unimpressive.
Circa 100j/kg of MuCape expands northward into the region this
afternoon, and at times a few hundred j/kg are seen tonight.
Forcing is strong enough to take advantage of that meager
instability, so a slight-chance to chance of thunderstorms is fine
this afternoon and tonight. Severe storms will be very difficult
to realize, with elevated convection and quite meager instability.

Heavy rain is more likely. Clusters of better showers and a few
embedded t-storms may have the opportunity to train as they lift
ne-ward. The low level jet will be somewhat enhanced over the
individual Great Lakes, helping focus somewhat better lift just
downstream of Lake MI/Huron, over eastern upper MI. The 925mb warm
front does slightly slow it`s progress as it crosses the Straits
and eastern upper MI this evening, which will also aid precip
production in the UP. Gridded QPF will somewhat exceed 1" in
eastern upper MI this afternoon and tonight, and could easily see
some spots take a run at 2" of rain or even somewhat more. Though
in general this has been a dry month, eastern upper MI did see a
respectable amount of rain back on Friday (0.75" at ANJ). Will
have to keep an eye on rainfall trends, and what is a small but
non-zero chance for excessive rain.

Max temps today in the 60s to lower 70s, somewhat cooler near Lk
Huron. Lows tonight from the upper 40s to around 60f.


.SHORT TERM...(Thursday through Friday)
Issued at 336 AM EDT Wed May 25 2022

High Impact Weather Potential...Thunderstorms are possible Thursday
through Thursday night.

Forecast period begins with an an area of low pressure over the
northern Great Lakes with a closed 558mb low lingering behind..over
the Mid-Mississippi River Valley. A cold front will extend south-
southwestward from the aforementioned surface low pressure through
through the spine of Lake Michigan. This surface low pressure will
continue to move north-northeastward with Gulf moisture being
advected into the Great Lakes region on southerly flow. This
moisture, along with isentropic ascent will continue to produce rain
chances over the forecast area with chances of embedded thunder at
times. The northeast lower peninsula should see the highest amounts
of storm total precipitation during this period, as the cold front
continues it`s push eastward, allowing northeast lower to be in the
warm sector along with deeper moisture the longest. Rain chances
will end from northwest to southeast throughout the day Friday as
said cold front passes through and continues it`s eastward
trek...taking with it the deeper moisture. Southwesterly winds will
veer throughout the day Thursday, before reaching northwestward
behind the cold front during the late afternoon/evening hours.
Northwesterly flow will continue throughout the day Friday with
gusts around 20 mph. Temperatures will vary from the low to mid 60s
over the eastern upper peninsula to the low to mid 70s across
northern lower Thursday and be a bit cooler Friday behind the cold
front with northwesterly winds ushering in temperatures in the 60s
throughout the entire forecast area.


.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 336 AM EDT Wed May 25 2022

High Impact Weather Potential...Minimal at this time.

The upper level closed low mentioned in the previous forecast
discussion will meander easterly...south of Michigan, and keep most
associated precipitation away from the forecast area. A tail end of
a cold front associated with a weak surface low pressure system over
James Bay may brush the eastern upper peninsula and the Tip of the
Mitt at times through Monday, with only slight chance pops. Models
seem to be coming into agreement for Sunday and into the next work
week, showing high pressure attempting to take over the Great Lakes
region...providing more of a pleasant and warmer than normal period
to begin the work week. Temperatures are progged to reach 80 by
Sunday and then interior portions of northern lower possibly
reaching 90 degrees to begin the work week.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1114 PM EDT Tue May 24 2022

VFR conditions through this morning under an increasing high
and mid level cloud deck. Deep moisture advection eventually
brings MVFR/IFR cigs from south to north this afternoon and
evening, along with some light to moderate rain. Light winds
tonight become gusty out of the southeast Wednesday. Wind shear
expected to spread across all taf locations later this evening as
low level jet spreads overhead.


Issued at 336 AM EDT Wed May 25 2022

East winds will increase today, as high pressure loses influence,
and low pressure moves northeast from the southern plains.
Small craft advisories are being issued for most waters for part
of today and tonight.


MI...FROST ADVISORY until 8 AM EDT this morning for MIZ018-023-024-
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 8 AM this morning to 8 AM EDT Thursday
     for LHZ345>348.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 8 AM this morning to 8 AM EDT Thursday
     for LMZ323-341-342-344>346.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 1 PM this afternoon to 6 AM EDT
     Thursday for LSZ322.


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