Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FXUS63 KAPX 211139
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
639 AM EST Wed Nov 21 2018

.NEAR TERM...(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 349 AM EST Wed Nov 21 2018

...Corrected: The record low maximum temperature section was
wrong since max temperatures run from midnight to midnight...

High impact weather potential: Minimal.

Pattern synopsis and forecast:

Low pressure and a cold front has blown through nrn Michigan  and
colder and very gusty westerly winds were resulting in fairly
light lake effect snows in highly cyclonic 1000-850mb flow, across
eastern upper Michigan, and in areas generally north of M-72 in
nrn lower Michigan. The strong winds have been able to blow this
lake effect all the way over to the NE lower coast near Alpena and
Ossineke. Winds were also in the process of veering more
northwest over the last several hours, seen on MQT and Canadian
radar. Upstream, high pressure and drier air was pressing into
Western Ontario.

Winds will continue to swing around more out of the NW then north
through the day, and weaken, as the Ontario high pressure and
drier air fill into nrn Michigan. As a result, the lake effect
snow will translate into the western and central areas of
Chip/Mack counties in eastern upper, and into the GTV Bay region.
These snows do not appear to become anything significant, due to a
pretty low inversion that will remain fairly steady at around
4-4.5kft. There will be a little bit of an uptick in the higher
terrain of nrn lower over the next handful of hours due to
orographics, which is actually starting to be seen on current
radar. Heading into tonight, winds weaken further and swing around
out of the east as the high pressure and core of driest air
settles into the region. The east winds will push the lake effect
snows out of NW lower, and there is minimal threat for any lake
snows entering NE lower off Lake Huron, due to such dry air
overhead, as well as very light winds likely resulting in land
breezes. This will likely keep any potential snows out over mid
lake, with the potential for a mesolow (see more on that below).

A very chilly start to the day with the combination of cold air
and gusty winds. Apparent temperatures will be around 10F in
eastern upper, and in the teens in much of nrn lower (lower half
of the 20s in the GTV Bay). Falling temperatures will result in
afternoon temperatures in the mid to upper teens most areas to
lower half of the 20s in the GTV Bay area.

The clearing combined with light/near calm winds tonight, and
land breezes potentially pushing all lake clouds out of nrn
Michigan will lead to a very cold night. Here is a comparison of
record low temperatures vs the forecast lows tonight.

Current record low temperatures for November 22nd:

   Location        Current Record (Year)   Forecast Lows
Sault Ste Marie         -3        (1956)        0F
Houghton Lake            2        (1929)        3F
Alpena                   3        (1929)        6F
Traverse City           11        (1946)        8F
Pellston                 2        (1971)        0F
Gaylord                  1        (2007)        0F

With the light/near calm wind scenario tonight, lows can
possibly go even colder, especially at PLN. So, a VERY cold
start to Thanksgiving Day.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Thursday through Friday)
Issued at 349 AM EST Wed Nov 21 2018

...Cold but mostly quiet for Thanksgiving...

High Impact Weather Potential...Minimal.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...Mid-level ridging over the central CONUS
will gradually build into northern Michigan Thursday into Thursday
night with rising heights and warm air advection. At the surface, a
strong, expansive Canadian high will slide from southeast Ontario
into the Northeast, providing a period of mostly quiet weather. The
ridge axis aloft will cross northern Michigan around daybreak
Friday, with deep troughing over the nation`s midsection approaching
the Great Lakes region late in the day.

Primary Forecast Concerns...Possible isolated light precip at times
through Thursday night.

The strong surface high sliding by just to our east will result in
cold but generally quiet weather for Thanksgiving across northern
Michigan. Wednesday night will feature an ideal setup for land
breezes to promote the formation of a meso-low or two over Lake
Huron. This has been hinted at to some extent by some synoptic
guidance, and latest hi-res models add fairly strong support. At
this time, there is low confidence in whether this meso-low may
brush the northeast Lower lakeshore during the day Thursday as
general southerly flow carries it north. If it does, expect only a
few flurries. Meanwhile weak convergence associated with lake
aggregate troughing over eastern Upper may support lingering light
snow showers over far western Mackinac and Chippewa counties during
the day. Otherwise should be some peaks of sunshine with highs
in the mid 20s for most.

Heading into Thursday night, increasing isentropic ascent lifting
northeast from Wisconsin may interact with moisture in the lowest
5000 ft to produce some light snow showers and areas of freezing
drizzle. This would be mainly north of the Straits where ascent will
be strongest, but wouldn`t completely rule it out for a portion of
northern Lower. Lows will range from around 20 to the mid 20s, but
that will occur early on with a non-diurnal rise overnight as winds
increase out of the south.

Quiet weather on Friday ahead of the next system organizing over the
Mississippi Valley. Temperatures will be noticeably warmer with highs
in the upper 30s for most, but lower 40s south of Grand Traverse Bay.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 349 AM EST Wed Nov 21 2018

High Impact Weather Potential...Potential winter storm late Sunday
into Monday could bring accumulating snow to a portion of northern
Michigan.

Thanks to a sustained southerly breeze out ahead of the next system,
moisture advection will be substantial Friday night with PWATs
climbing above 0.6 inches. Deep troughing aloft associated with a
surface low over Ontario and a trailing cold front will bring
widespread precipitation to northern Michigan late Friday night into
Saturday. This will be generally in the form of rain and activity
should mostly exit the area during the late evening.

Attention then shifts to a potent system progged to develop over the
Central Plains and then eject towards the Lower Great Lakes late
Sunday into Monday. For being this far out, models are in pretty
good agreement with the expected track of this system, which would
place northern Michigan on its northern side (in a favorable
position for some accumulating snow). However, precip type is
not clear cut this far out, as temperatures will still be somewhat
milder in comparison to the prolonged cold we`ve seen lately.
Present storm track would favor some accumulating snow for at least
a portion of northern Michigan, but there may be some rain at times,
particularly during the day Monday. Other concern is how far into
northern Michigan the precip shield will extend. Forecast confidence
then decreases substantially heading into Tuesday. There are
significant model differences with regard to how quickly this system
exits and the resultant impacts to H8 temperatures and potential
lake effect in its wake. &&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1246 AM EST Wed Nov 21 2018

Low pressure was departing east, which was dragging a cold front and
tight pressure gradient across nrn Michigan. Cold and gusty west
winds will turn out of the NW then North through the day, while also
allowing for the development of lake effect snow showers. While
accumulations are expected to be an inch or less, these snow showers
will be able to periodically bring VSBYS down to MVFR/IFR while CIGS
and CIGS will be largely MVFR. The air mass will be drying with time
as high pressure settles into the region through tonight. Winds will
weaken and turn more out of the east. This will push snow showers
and MVFR lake clouds out of NW lower, with maybe some small chance
of a snow shower/MVFR CIGS moving into APN.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 626 AM EST Wed Nov 21 2018

Low pressure has departed east, and last night`s cold front was
well south now, in far southern Lake Huron through Se lower
Michigan. We remain in a tight pressure gradient which was
allowing very cold and gusty N/NW winds to produce lake effect
snow showers. Accumulations are expected to be an inch or less,
but there is a heavier band of snow that will impact TVC with
potential LIFR VSBYS. Otherwise, periodic MVFR/IFR VSBYS expected
for the GTV Bay region, maybe PLN through this morning, but more
infrequently. CIGS will be mainly be low end MVFR/high end MVFR
for much of the TAF period. The lake clouds and snow showers will
depart later tonight for VFR everywhere. This is due to the
arrival of high pressure and an east wind that goes near calm.
Maybe some small chance of a snow shower/MVFR CIGS moving into
APN.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 349 AM EST Wed Nov 21 2018

Low pressure and a cold front have blown through the region and
very gusty NW/N winds have developed within a tight pressure
gradient. Widespread advisory gusts, with occasional gale force
gusts for mainly portions of the Lake Huron nearshores were
ongoing. Headlines will hold as is. Winds will gradually subside
through the day and evening as high pressure settles in over the
Great Lakes. Winds will swing around out of the south Thursday and
increase through Thursday night as low pressure develops in South
Central Canada. Widespread advisory gusts look to be the idea, but
speeds may be able to approach gales. Not enough confidence at
this point for a gale watch.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 5 PM EST this afternoon for LHZ345-
     346.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 5 AM EST Thursday for LHZ349.
     GALE WARNING until noon EST today for LHZ347-348.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 5 PM EST this afternoon for LMZ323-
     341-342-344>346.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 5 PM EST this afternoon for LSZ321-
     322.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...SMD
MARINE...SMD


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