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000
FXUS63 KAPX 061755
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
155 PM EDT Tue Jun 6 2023

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1004 AM EDT Tue Jun 6 2023

Few changes to the current forecast. Combination of a swath of
higher clouds sliding across the Great Lakes this morning and
smoke/haze due to Canadian wildfires is creating the feel of a
mostly cloudy morning. The higher clouds should thin this
afternoon but the smoky/hazy skies will remain with maturing north
flow. Did tweak high temperatures down 1-2 degf, taking a
combination of the regional GEM and the NBM. Main weather story
remains critical fire weather parameters with deep mixing into an
already extremely dry airmass resulting in very low relative
humidity values. Given the extremely dry fuels and humidity levels
(and recent history), the ongoing red flag warning looks well
justified.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 228 AM EDT Tue Jun 6 2023

High Impact Weather Potential: High to extreme fire weather
conditions expected today.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast:

Northern Michigan remains squarely centered between stout central
Noam mid/upper level ridging and still maturing northeast Noam
troughing. Extensive area of surface high pressure building within
deep layer subsidence regime between these features...steadily
building south into the Great Lakes. Combination of some passing
high clouds and smoke from ongoing Canadian wildfires is resulting
in partly cloudy skies across the Northwoods. A near seasonable
night otherwise, with current temperatures falling into the 50s
across much of the area.

High pressure will continue to build south into the area through
tonight. This will send another surge of very dry low level air
across the area, returning high to extreme fire weather conditions
to northern Michigan this afternoon.

Primary Forecast Concerns/Challenges:

Main focus on fire weather parameters and attendant headline
decisions today.

Details:

Unfortunately, more dry weather expected through tonight as deep
layer subsidence continues across northern Michigan. Clear to partly
cloudy skies through tonight with just some passing high clouds and
potentially some more elevated smoke. Maturing north flow, at times
a bit gusty, will result in a slightly cooler airmass, with high
temperatures ranging through the 70s. Solar-driven mixing through an
already very dry low and mid level environment will support
widespread critical level relative humidity values this afternoon.
This will only exacerbate the already very dry soil conditions.
While specific red flag criteria will likely not be achieved in all
areas (specifically regarding winds), given recent history and those
very dry conditions, feel an upgrade from current fire weather watch
to a red flag warning is more than justified. Maintenance of a
somewhat mixed low level environment tonight will prevent
temperatures from reaching their full potential. Still expecting a
somewhat chilly early June night, with most areas falling into the
40s. Wouldn`t be terribly surprised to see a few upper 30s in those
traditional colder and more sheltered areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Wednesday through Thursday night)
Issued at 228 AM EDT Tue Jun 6 2023

High Impact Weather Potential: More high to extreme fire weather
conditions looking likely both Wednesday and Thursday.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast:

Mid level heights actually become suppressed a bit through this
period as northeast troughing expands a bit further west with time.
However, any attendant Atlantic moisture and much needed showers
look to remain well off to our east, with surface high pressure
still dominating our weather as we head through the remainder of the
work week.

Primary Forecast Concerns/Challenges:

Addressing more fire weather concerns Wednesday and Thursday.

Details:

Rain-free weather will continue through the period, this despite
that western extending troughing. North flow will continue as well
as center of surface high pressure remains steadfast across Hudson
Bay and northern Quebec. This will result in a rather seasonable
airmass, with highs running through the 70s and overnight lows
mostly in the 40s. Low level environment will remain exceedingly
dry, and fully expect afternoon relative humidity values both
Wednesday and Thursday afternoons to reach or exceed critical
levels. While again specific red flag criteria will likely not be
met in all areas as both winds and temperatures look to fall just a
bit short, given extremely dry conditions feel additional fire
weather headlines will likely be needed.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Monday)
Issued at 228 AM EDT Tue Jun 6 2023

High Impact Weather Potential... Watching potential fire danger
this Friday.

Mid level ridging will settle into northern Michigan this Friday
before transitioning to shortwave trough Saturday. This pattern
typically supports precipitation, but chances of rain remain low due
to a lack of moisture in the Great Lakes region. Relatively strong
northeasterly flow will keep potential fire danger this Friday to the
extremely dry vegetation. The aformentioned shortwave will begin to
close off and cyclogenesis will form over the Ohio valley this
Sunday. Latest guidance suggests low pressure tracking south of the
CWA, causing northern Michgian to stay dry for the remainder of the
forecast period. Slight chances of precipitation will remain in the
forecast, but the continuation of dry conditions are very possible
as we head into mid June.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 150 PM EDT Tue Jun 6 2023

Mainly VFR conditions are anticipated across northern Michigan TAF
sites through the issuance period. The exception will be APN where
MVFR VSBYs will be possible at times this afternoon and evening due
to HZ from Canadian wildfire smoke working into the area. TAF sites
to the west of APN are not expected to experience drops to MVFR
VSBYs at this time. Otherwise, mostly clear/sunny skies are in store
for northern Michigan tonight through Wednesday afternoon. North-
northeast winds will weaken some overnight, and then restrengthen by
Wednesday afternoon with speeds around 10 kts with gusts to 15-20
kts at times.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 228 AM EDT Tue Jun 6 2023

Winds become north to northeast and a bit gusty at times today
through Thursday. Strongest winds look to arrive on Wednesday, which
may become just gusty enough to perhaps produce some low end small
craft advisory conditions...especially across Whitefish Bay and the
Saint Marys River. Otherwise, expect sub-advisory conditions and dry
weather to continue.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM EDT this evening for MIZ016>018-
     020>036-041-042-098-099.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JK
NEAR TERM...MSB
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...SJC
AVIATION...DJC
MARINE...MSB