Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 160937

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
537 AM EDT Fri Apr 16 2021

.NEAR TERM...(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 303 AM EDT Fri Apr 16 2021

Impactful weather: None.

Pattern synopsis and forecast:

Deep low pressure was over the NE states early this morning, while
another upper trough was seen back across the Rockies/lee of the
Rockies. Nrn Michigan was between these two features, with a cool
low level moisture-laden BL, resulting in fairly widespread clouds.
Patchy/areas of drizzle/mist continue, aided by orographic lift into
the higher terrain. This is really the only forcing out there, as
upper jet dynamics, theta-e advection and DPVA all resided with the
the upper trough/deep low pressure. There was some deeper moisture
wrapping around the backside of the NE states deep low pressure with
a batch of precipitation rotating toward Lake Huron.

The deep upper low will slowly work off into the Atlantic today and
tonight, and a tighter pressure gradient settles into the region,
bringing some lower end gustiness in NW winds today. The Rockies
upper trough will work into the central Plains, but the system
forcing will all remain SW. The batch of precipitation moving toward
Lake Huron is not expected to make it into nrn Michigan, but the
patchy/areas of drizzle/mist are likely to continue into the
daylight hours.

High temperatures will be in the middle and upper 40s for eastern
upper and much of NW lower, with the lower half of the 50s in NE
lower, aided by downsloping winds. Lows tonight will be 30F to


.SHORT TERM...(Saturday through Sunday)
Issued at 303 AM EDT Fri Apr 16 2021

...Slowly Moderating Temperatures...

High impact weather: None is expected.

Primary forecast concerns/challenges: Temperatures and cloud cover.

Fairly uneventful weather is expected over the weekend with slowly
warming temperatures. However, there are a few things to keep an eye
on for Saturday with the nearly cutoff upper low over New England
inching off to the northeast, another trough moving by to our south
and yet another trough dropping down from the north. These three
factors will likely lead to a decent amount of cloud cover across
northern Michigan during the day Saturday. Model soundings indicate
that moisture will be trapped below a fairly strong but shallow 3000
foot surface based inversion. A nearly zonal flow aloft then
develops heading into Sunday which should lead to less clouds.
Temperatures are expected to remain a few degrees below normal
Saturday (lowered blended guidance numbers) then approach normal by
Sunday afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Thursday)
Issued at 303 AM EDT Fri Apr 16 2021

...Turning Chilly Again...

High impact weather potential: None is expected.

A northern stream trough and an associated surface cold front will
move into the region Monday likely resulting in a round of rain
showers. Extended models remain bullish on another shot of
unseasonably chilly air which follows the front and holds through
midweek. Upper troughing and the cold air aloft may produce some
rain or even snow showers from Monday night into Tuesday, possibly
lingering into Wednesday. Highs Monday at or slightly above normal
then forecast highs will be several degrees below normal through
midweek. Milder readings look to return for later in the week.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 536 AM EDT Fri Apr 16 2021

Deep low pressure will spin off into the Atlantic today, while a
tighter pressure gradient slides into the region today, which is
expected to bring lower end gusty NW winds. Deep cyclonic flow
combined with ample low level moisture will continue to result in
MVFR/IFR CIGS for the entire TAF period, with some late afternoon
and evening clearing for the NW lower airports.


Issued at 303 AM EDT Fri Apr 16 2021

Deep low pressure will spin off into the Atlantic today, while a
tighter pressure gradient and slight overlake instability lead to
numerous advisories in the nearshore waters today into this evening.
Higher pressure and lighter winds will then gradually fill in over
the weekend. No precipitation expected.


LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 8 PM EDT this evening for LHZ347-348.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 3 PM EDT this afternoon for
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 8 PM EDT this evening for LSZ321-322.


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