Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 182029

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
329 PM EST Mon Feb 18 2019

.NEAR TERM...(Through Tonight)
Issued at 328 PM EST Mon Feb 18 2019

...Well below normal temperatures continue...

High impact weather potential: None.

Pattern synopsis/forecast: Hard to believe, but another relatively
quiet day across the Northwoods...courtesy of a large area of high
pressure building slowly across the northern Plains into the western
Great Lakes. Of course, still have the lake processes to deal with,
with lake clouds and light lake effect snow showers impacting some
of the shoreline areas. Otherwise, a good deal of sunshine is being
experienced across much of the area. Now, despite this sunshine,
temperatures remain well below normal for this time of year, with
early afternoon readings mostly in the teens and lower 20s (normal
highs for todays date range from the middle 20s to lower 30s).

That upstream high pressure eventually centers itself right overhead
as we head through tonight. Combination of attendant light winds,
mostly clear skies, and deep snowpack sets the stage for quite the
cold temperatures tonight.

Primary forecast concerns/challenges: Just how cold to go tonight.
Addressing some light lake effect snow potential.

Details: More quiet weather tonight as that cold high settles right
overhead. May see a few non-impactful flurries/very light snow
showers across the lake belts of eastern upper and northwest lower
Michigan. Bigger story is temperatures, with what appears to be near
ideal conditions to get some pretty cold readings across our typical
ice box locations. Of course, guidance remains much too "warm", a
consistent bias seen on such calm nights. Will continue the theme
set forth by the overnight forecaster, cutting even the coldest
statistical guidance by several degrees. Expect lows well below zero
across most interior areas, with some of the coldest locales likely
dipping near or below -10F (wouldn`t be a shock at all to see a few
spots even much colder). At least light winds will keep wind chills
similar to actual temperatures.


.SHORT TERM...(Tuesday through Thursday)
Issued at 328 PM EST Mon Feb 18 2019

...More snow on the way for Wednesday...

High Impact Weather Potential...Medium.

Primary Forecast Concerns...Snow accumulations Wednesday.

Perhaps a few light lake effect snow showers near the Lake Michigan
shoreline, otherwise ridging at the surface and aloft Tuesday should
lead to precipitation free conditions. Low pressure then moves
across the region Wednesday into Wednesday night likely bringing
accumulating snow to the region. Strong forcing in evidence with
this system but only moderate amounts of moisture. Generally, 3 to 5
inches of snow accumulation expected across eastern upper with 2 to
4 inches across northern lower (highest north). There could even be
a little freezing rain/freezing drizzle that mixes in across
southeast counties but only with a glaze of accumulation. It then
turns marginally cold enough for westerly flow lake effect Thursday.
Highs moderate from the upper teens to mid 20s Tuesday into the mid
20s to mid 30s Thursday.


.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Monday)
Issued at 328 PM EST Mon Feb 18 2019

...Another storm likely this weekend...

High Impact Weather Potential: Could be high depending upon the
track of a system this weekend.

Extended models are on board that there will be another deepening
area of low pressure moving through the Great Lakes this weekend.
However, the track is in question. Precipitation type and amount
will be tied to how that system evolves...but the impact could end
up being on the high side. Perhaps some light warm advection driven
light rain or light snow Saturday. The bulk of the precipitation
appears to be later Saturday night into Sunday night. It then looks
like a decent shot of arctic air and likely lake effect snow showers
follow for early next week.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1240 PM EST Mon Feb 18 2019

While nothing too significant is expected, MVFR to low end VFR
producing lake clouds and snow showers will continue to impact
KTVC and KMBL through much of this taf period. Current MVFR
producing overcast at KAPN should scatter out shortly, leaving
them and KPLN dominated by VFR conditions under a few passing high
clouds. Light winds through the period.




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