Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 081926

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
326 PM EDT Sat Aug 8 2020

.NEAR TERM...(Through Sunday)
Issued at 325 PM EDT Sat Aug 8 2020

...Chances of showers and storms tonight thru Sunday...

High Impact Weather Potential...Sub-severe storms are possible thru
Sunday. Any storms that develop may produce some gusty winds and
heavy rainfall.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...Upper level wave and surface response
have reached our far NW CWA this afternoon. Resulting remnants of
this morning`s MCS continue to slide thru our CWA this afternoon
ahead of this wave...with overall intensity and areal coverage
diminishing with eastward progress into a much more stable airmass
overhead. Thickening overcast associated with this convection has
done little to increase our instability. A look back over Wisconsin
shows quite a bit of low cloud cover to our west in the immediate
wake of the suspect our opportunity for increasing
instability is very limited for the remainder of the day.

Upper wave will slide thru our CWA this evening...pushing east of
our area overnight. Best chances of showers and storms will continue
to be along and just ahead of this feature thru this evening...then
chances of showers and storms will diminish overnight into Sunday
but will not be zero at any one time as we remain in a rather warm
and humid airmass with modest instability. Wind fields weekend in
the wake of this wave...but begin to strengthen upstream over the
Upper Mississippi Valley and Wisconsin on Sunday. Latest near term
models suggest another MCS will develop within this area on Sunday
but will not reach our CWA until late Sunday night/Monday. Again...
chances of showers/storms on Sunday are small but certainly not
zero...and have adjusted POPs for reflect this.

Warm and humid conditions are expected to round out the weekend...
with overnight lows in the 60s tonight and afternoon highs in the
mid 80s to near 90 on sunday.


.SHORT TERM...(Sunday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 325 PM EDT Sat Aug 8 2020

...Very Warm and Humid with Shower/Storm Chances Monday...

High Impact Weather Potential...Possibility of a few strong to
severe thunderstorms.

Forecast Concerns...Pops and storm intensity through Monday night.

Possible mesoscale convection system rolling across Wisconsin may
move into northern Michigan Sunday night but there is uncertainty
over the timing/details. A surface cold front will then sweep across
the region Monday afternoon and evening with convection likely
firing in advance of the front. Models indicate that plenty of
instability will develop with mixed layer capes of 2,000-3,000 J/Kg.
However, wind fields are rather weak with 0-6 Km bulk shear
generally 20 to 25 knots. Although widespread severe weather is
still not anticipated, strong surface heating could lead to decent
downdraft winds as well as some hail. Heavy downpours are likely
with any storms as precipitable water values are between a robust
1.5 and 2 inches. It will remain very humid Monday with dropping
humidity levels expected Tuesday. Any shower and thunderstorm
activity will diminish Monday night leaving rain free conditions
Tuesday. Temperatures are expected to remain very warm (especially
Monday) and average out a few degrees above normal.


.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Saturday)
Issued at 325 PM EDT Sat Aug 8 2020

...Very Warm Temperatures...

High Impact Weather Potential...Low.

Slowly building heights through the period should ensure very warm
temperatures. Can`t totally rule out a few instability driven
showers or storms to develop at some point late in the week or next
weekend but overall not a lot of activity is expected. Temperatures
will be at least a few degrees above normal through the period with
no break in the warm pattern foreseen at any point soon.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 100 PM EDT Sat Aug 8 2020

Increasingly warm and moist air will continue to surge northward
into the Western Great Lakes region ahead of an upstream cold
front over the next 24 hours. Most of Northern Lower Michigan will
see a good chance of showers and a few thunderstorms this
afternoon into early evening. Small chances of showers and storms
will continue during the rest of tonight and on Sunday as the cold
front remains west of our area. Prevailing conditions will remain
VFR thru the 24 hours TAF forecast period...but may briefly drop
to MVFR/IFR within any heavier showers/storms. LLWS will develop
tonight as winds just off the deck strengthen. Surface winds will
remain from the S/SW at 10 to 20 kts today into this evening...
becoming W/SW AOB 10 kts later tonight into Sunday.


Issued at 325 PM EDT Sat Aug 8 2020

Winds and waves will continue to reach SCA criteria within our
nearshore waters of Lake Michigan thru tonight. Beach hazards (high
waves and strong currents) are also expected along some of our Lake
Michigan beaches as well. Chances of showers and storms will remain
in the forecast for all of our nearshore areas tonight thru Monday.


MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT until midnight EDT tonight for MIZ025-
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 6 AM EDT Sunday for LMZ341-342-


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