Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FXUS63 KAPX 190013
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
813 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light accumulations of snow expected this evening into early
  Tuesday, especially across far northern Lower Michigan.

- Accumulating lake effect snow and gusty winds again ramp up
  for Tuesday night into Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
Ridge axis swinging in from the northwest this afternoon, and nearly
overhead as of 18z, as far as the lower/mid levels are concerned.
Surface winds beginning to back to the west/northwest now. PV strand
continues to drift through from the northwest as well. Little to no
uptick in activity noted across northwest lower this afternoon with
this; continued warm advection and subsidence aloft leading to a
gradual quieting of lake effect, at least, from Manistee county
northward. Already seeing some mid/high clouds slip in from the
northwest thanks to aforementioned warm advection ahead of the
incoming clipper system, still located over Manitoba/Saskatchewan.

Anticipating continued warm advection into the region, particularly
across our north, through the evening into the overnight. Even
so...low-levels remain cold enough for nuisance lake effect to hold
on into the evening, becoming more focused in west and eventually
southwest flow areas. Will look for an uptick in snowfall over the
area this evening, particularly for the EUP and Tip of the Mitt
region...where top-down saturation will be most robust over a longer
period of the night tonight. Things slowly improve along our west
coast very late tonight/early into Tuesday morning...as we get into
the effective dry slot of this system.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS:

MORE NUISANCE LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AND SLICK ROADS INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...Deepest/best moisture appears to be more fervent over
areas north of M-68, particularly over the EUP tonight...which is
also where SW flow should allow for better fetch and LES potential
to further enhance snowfall totals above and beyond what minimal
amounts are expected from the system itself. This is where we are
most favored for another round of 1-3 inch snowfall totals by
Tuesday morning. Though snowfall totals will be similar to last
night...am leaning against headlines this time around, noting winds
should be lighter this time...though not impossible that we could
end up seeing some rogue gusts to 20-30mph at times tonight. Not
expecting this to be the norm for now, though.

Worth noting that thermal profiles should become isothermal in the
DGZ for a time, where we will also likely be saturated. If we end up
maximizing lift in this layer for a prolonged time...could see
localized quick, fluffy accumulations overperform current
expectations across the EUP, though for now...probabilistic guidance
does not support much more than 2-3" at most anywhere in the
CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
Pattern/Synopsis: Upper troffing continues over eastern Canada, with
nw flow aloft over the northern lakes. Weak ripples in this flow
cross the region on Tuesday, and again late Tuesday night. At the
surface, a somewhat slow-moving low will move east away from Lk
Superior. A primary cold front crosses lower MI Tuesday, and a
secondary boundary sags south into the area Wednesday.

Forecast: Primary plume of synoptic scale moisture/ascent will be
pushing east of eastern upper/ne lower MI during the morning. But
lake instability (850mb temps around -10C) will be just sufficient
for lake enhancement behind this, in initially sw but veering 1000-
850mb winds. In the afternoon, those winds veer nw, with cold
advection beginning but some further drying that will transition us
to lake effect snow. The most considerable precip will be over the
far eastern UP in the morning (east of a St Ignace-Brimley line),
where 1-2" of snow is possible in the morning. Transition of
numerous lake effect snow showers will occur in the afternoon in
eastern upper MI (where a colder air mass is inbound, and a longer
upstream fetch is present). Just small accums though. In northern
lower MI, an inch of snow is possible in the morning near and east
of Ltl Trav Bay in the morning. Anticipate lesser coverage in the
afternoon in northern lower MI (vs eastern upper).

Tue night-Wed...brisk nw-erly low-level flow will sustain lake
effect snow showers, gusty winds, and chilly temps. Fetch starts Tue
evening borderline wnw/nw, and veers a bit more northerly with time,
especially on Superior. 850mb temps tumble to -14/-15C by dawn Wed,
and bit further by evening (though with somewhat dryer air working
in late Wed). For eastern upper MI, Tue night the flow is backed
enough (especially early on) to bring central Chip Co (the Sault)
into the lake effect party. Local 2-4" accums progged. Flow veers
more Wed, and western Chip/far nw Mack Cos should be the main focus.
In northern lower MI, best coverage/accums progged for the classic
big 5 counties (CVX-GLR-Kalkaska areas), but expanded into Leelanau
and Gd Trav Cos as well. Will keep accums in the 1-3" range both
periods. Some blowing/drifting snow will occur, especially where
higher-end accums are achieved. And wind chills Wed morning may
approach zero in some spots. Welcome to the first full day of
spring.

Max temps Tue will be sneaky mild just ahead of the surface cold
front, mid 30s to near 40f. Lows that night upper teens to mid 20s.
Much cooler highs Wed, mid 20s to lower 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Pattern/Synopsis: Upper flow deamplifies over the northern US late
this week. An upper low does dig into far northern Ontario, which
will keep heights somewhat suppressed here into the start of the
weekend. This may also allow a shallow cold airmass to push back
into northern MI. Developing troffing in the west will try to push
up heights in the east by Monday.

Forecast: Generally chilly thru the period...until maybe Monday.
High pressure tries to build in by late Thursday, suppressing lake
effect snow chances. A system (or systems) tracking thru the OH
Valley/southern lakes will lead to synoptic snow chances Thu night
and Friday, especially in northern lower MI. Incoming high pressure
from the nw then returns colder air and lake effect into the start
of the weekend. Temps will try to rebound after that, but that warm
advection will also result in precip chances, mostly for snow, but
perhaps with rain entering the picture Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
A clipper system will pass north of the area later tonight into
Wednesday. Predominantly MVFR conditions expected across the
northern Michigan terminals until the clipper clears the area
Wednesday, with local IFR conditions possible with any heavier
snow. All but KCIU likely to bump up to VFR behind the clipper
during the day Wednesday. Periodically gusty winds expected with
the clipper as well, especially Wednesday behind the clipper`s
cold front.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds to continue to back to the W and SW through this evening into
the overnight hours, diminishing in intensity for a brief period
overnight...until winds pick up again toward Tuesday morning as
another clipper system slips through the area...and winds turn more
northwest again. Next item of interest for marine purposes is
potential for gale force winds late Tuesday night into Wednesday in
its wake.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for LHZ347-
     348.
     Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for LSZ321-
     322.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FEF
SHORT TERM...JZ
LONG TERM...JZ
AVIATION...PBB
MARINE...FEF


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