162
FXUS63 KAPX 201740
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
140 PM EDT Thu Mar 20 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread snow continues this morning...gradually ending
  this afternoon.

- Strong wind gusts of 35-45 mph this morning will produce
  areas of blowing snow and reduced visibility...leading to
  hazardous travel for the morning commute.

- Milder and dry Friday

- Another parade of disturbances for the weekend, with various
  chances for rain and snow, especially Sunday night into
  Monday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1056 AM EDT Thu Mar 20 2025

System responsible for last night and this mornings bout of
winter weather quickly exiting stage right this morning. Snow is
steadily exiting along with it, and gusty northwest winds are
starting to show signs of subsiding some. Expect these improving
trends to continue, and actually expecting to see quite a bit
of sunshine for most areas by later this afternoon. A cool one
for sure, with temperatures going much of nowhere with readings
mostly stuck in the 30s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 243 AM EDT Thu Mar 20 2025

     Cold and windy with accumulating snow gradually ending
today...

Strong low pressure center has reached Lower Michigan early this
morning...with the sharp upper level trough axis close in tow now
swinging thru Wisconsin and Illinois. Deep moisture originating in
the Gulf of America continues to stream northward ahead of the
associated cold front...lifting over the warm front and wrapping
around the back side of the surface low center. Widespread precip
continues to impact our CWA attm...targeting the NW half of our CWA
for highest POPs. Precip type has switched over to all snow for our
NW CWA where Winter Wx headlines remain in effect...as CAA takes
place along the northern periphery of the low center. Precip is
still in the process of transitioning to snow across NE Lower
Michigan where precip coverage is limited attm. Surface temps are
still holding in the low to mid 30s.

Surface low center will slide thru SE Ontario into Western Quebec
this morning...continuing eastward thru the rest of Quebec and the
Eastern Great Lakes this afternoon. Precip type will continue to
transition to all snow over the next few hours...with widespread
snow impacting our entire CWA thru the morning hours. Heaviest and
most persistent snowfall will continue to impact the NW half of our
CWA...and will certainly maintain all Winter Wx headlines thru the
morning as a result. Expect an additional 2 to 4 inches of snow
during the morning hours...with a few locally higher amounts
possible (especially across portions of Eastern Upper Michigan).
North winds will rapidly strengthen to 20 to 30 mph early this
morning...with gusts to 40 mph expected at times. Highest winds will
again be across our NW CWA...and will keep all Wind Advisories in
tact.

Snow will end and skies will gradually clear from west to east
during the afternoon as deep moisture slides east with the low.
Winds will also gradually diminish during the afternoon and
eventually become light/variable tonight. Mainly clear skies will
persist thru much of tonight as the upstream low level ridge axis
slides over Michigan.

Ongoing low level CAA will hold temps nearly steady in the upper 20s
to mid 30s today. Low temps tonight will drop into the teens to
lower 20s under clear skies...light/calm winds and a rather cold
airmass overhead.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 243 AM EDT Thu Mar 20 2025

Zonal flow commences in the wake of the departing wave / surface low
currently over the area. Result will be an initial bump of shortwave
ridging followed by the passage of a shortwave trough Friday night.
Result will be a much milder day Friday with highs well into the 40s
and 50s, though it will be rather breezy. The Friday night system
will drag a potent cold front through the region, bringing snow
showers north and a rain to snow transition south. Some minor
accumulations will be possible Saturday morning. Colder Saturday,
with highs in the 20s and 30s, though sunshine becomes more
prevalent through the day. A reprieve from the active weather
carries into early Sunday, before another wave, this one a bit more
potent, brings the next more appreciable precipitation chances to
the region. Expectation is that most areas, perhaps after a brief
window of rain early Sunday evening, flip to snow, which is
anticipated to carry through Monday. Certainly potential for some
accumulations, possibly 4"+ in some spots. There is some guidance
that wants to create a wintry mix scenario across the southern
portions of our CWA for this system, but still a bit early to get
into specifics. Otherwise, this system will then move out by Tuesday
with high pressure returning, though this system will cut itself off
over New England and Atlantic Canada, which will establish a
longwave troughing regime across northeastern North America, which
will leave us with colder than normal temperatures (highs in the mid
30s to lower 40s) as we conclude the forecast period, with potential
for more shortwave troughs to pass through the region just beyond
the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 132 PM EDT Thu Mar 20 2025

Improving conditions expected across all taf locations the
remainder of this afternoon and tonight as skies clear and winds
decrease. Likely to see some high clouds increase again on
Friday, along with increasingly gusty southwest winds.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for LHZ345>349.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LMZ323-
     341-342-344>346.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LSZ321-
     322.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MSB
SHORT TERM...MLR
LONG TERM...HAD
AVIATION...MSB