Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 240147

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
947 PM EDT Fri Mar 23 2018

Issued at 947 PM EDT Fri Mar 23 2018

Pronounced surface ridging...strong subsidence and dry air thru
the column remain locked over Michigan late this evening...keeping
skies clear and winds generally light from the N/NW. Little will
change as we head into the overnight hours as the surface high
center drops further south from James Bay toward our state. Expect
another clear...calm and cold night across the Northwoods...with
overnight lows ranging from the single digits above zero in
Eastern Upper Michigan to the teens across Northern Lower
Michigan. Stay warm everyone!


.NEAR TERM...(Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 307 PM EDT Fri Mar 23 2018

...Elevated fire danger on Saturday...

High impact weather potential...marginal fire wx concerns Sat.

High pressure continues to poke into the western Great Lakes from
the north. This will remain in place thru Saturday, even as the
parent high heads for eastern Canada. This will suppress the system
impacting the northern plains well to our south. A 500mb ridge now
in the northern plains will fold over into the western lakes on
Saturday. This will result in an even drier deep airmass for

Lake-induced stratocu is seen over parts of the south half of Lk
Huron. As winds veer more ne late tonight into Saturday, some of
this will push into parts of ne lower MI, mainly south of APN.
Expect partly cloudy skies for OSC/Standish/Gladwin for very late
tonight into Sat morning, before mixing and further drying erodes.
Otherwise, broader PWATs lower to around 0.05" by afternoon per
Nam BUFR soundings, which would be impressively dry even in the
dead of winter. So no other clouds of note.

Dry advection and diurnally-induced vertical mixing will plunge
surface dew points a little deeper Saturday than the past couple of
days. RH progs drop into the lower/mid 20s across a good portion of
northern lower MI, especially south of M-32. This is accompanied by
a gusty ne/ene surface wind, reaching 20-25 mph at times. For places
without snow cover, this is enough to see elevated fire danger emerge.
The HWO has already been updated to include this mention.

Will broaden the diurnal temp range over guidance in this pattern,
slightly lowering min temps tonight, and boosting them during the
day Saturday. Lows tonight near 10f in eastern upper MI, and from
10 to 20f in northern lower. Highs Sat in the lower 30s to around
40f, warmest in nw lower MI with a downsloping wind.


.SHORT TERM...(Saturday night through Monday)
Issued at 307 PM EDT Fri Mar 23 2018

...Quiet weekend weather continues...

High Impact Weather Potential: None.

Pattern Forecast: Primary driver to northern Michigan`s sensible
weather will be strong/expansive surface high pressure drifting
across southern Canada into the far northern tier of the CONUS
through the start of next week. Only feature to note through the
weekend will be a compact, quick moving shortwave set to dive from
the northern plains through the upper Mississippi Valley Friday
night into Saturday with the only challenge locally perhaps being a
slight uptick in cloud cover across far southern parts of the
forecast area.

Primary Forecast Concerns/Challenges: Cloud cover/temps trends.

Quiet weather is anticipated through the forecast period as
aforementioned high pressure drifts across the region through early
next week. Mostly sunny skies during the day Sunday will give way to
increasing clouds by Monday afternoon as an area of low pressure
ramps up across the central/southern plains and treks toward the
Great Lakes...likely bringing a period of wet weather to northern
Michigan as early as Monday night (discussed more below). High temps
Sunday ranging from the mid-30s north to the low 40s near the GTV
Bay region. Tack on a few degrees Monday with warm air advection
underway...varying through the 40s across the forecast area, perhaps
tagging 50 across a few southern locales.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Friday)
Issued at 307 PM EDT Fri Mar 23 2018

High Impact Weather Potential: Minimal.

Primary focus through the extended will continue to revolve around
the Monday night through Tuesday night time frame as strengthening
low pressure across the central plains treks northeastward toward the
Great Lakes. Warm air advection during the day Monday will continue
in earnest Monday night with isentropically driven, widespread rain
spreading across the area from southwest to northeast. Precip is
expected to turn more showery across the bulk of the area by Tuesday
night before diminishing by Wednesday morning.

High temps are expected to be above normal Tuesday through
Thursday...ranging from the 40s to low 50s area-wide. However,
latest trends suggest another shot of cooler air is possible late
next week into Easter weekend.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 700 PM EDT Fri Mar 23 2018

Pronounced surface ridging...strong subsidence and dry air thru
the column will maintain clear skies across Michigan tonight thru
Saturday evening. Solid VFR conditions are expected at all
Northern Lower Michigan TAF sites over the next 24 hours. N/NE
winds AOB 10 kts tonight will strengthen to 10 to 20 kts on


Issued at 307 PM EDT Fri Mar 23 2018

Winds will remain brisk at times, even as they back toward the ne
and even e by late Saturday. Some potential for winds/waves to
reach small craft advisory criteria (especially along the ne lower
MI coast) by Sat afternoon. Don`t anticipate issuing an advisory
just yet, though will evaluate further this afternoon.




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