Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 170341

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1141 PM EDT Wed May 16 2018

Issued at 948 PM EDT Wed May 16 2018

Weak front and enhanced area of moisture/low and mid level lapse
rates has kicked off a few high based light showers across eastern
upper Michigan this evening. Showers further west across Wisconsin
have largely dissipated as solar induced instability has been
lost. Expect showers across eastern upper to rapidly move east
out of the region later this evening, leaving behind a eroding mid
level cloud deck dropping into northern lower. Partly to mostly
clear skies expected by morning, with lows largely in the 40s.


.NEAR TERM...(Through Tonight)
Issued at 328 PM EDT Wed May 16 2018

...A few showers possible, otherwise quiet...

High Impact Weather Potential: Elevated fire danger into the
early evening.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...Broad troughing and strong northern
stream flow remains across eastern Canada and just skirting the
northern Great Lakes region with a strong upper jet core (110+
knots) driving into Ontario. Elongated surface low sits across
Lake Superior and southern Ontario with a wavy front extending
westward across the northern plains. Narrow axis of steeper low-
mid level lapse rates/modest instability stretches west-east
across Lake Superior and the U.P. ahead of the front, with
thicker band of mid cloud cover and elevated showers continuing to
run across Lake Superior. A bit more surface based instability has
developed across western and central upper Michigan with an
agitated CU field across that area and a few showers that have
popped up near MQT.

Primary Forecast Concerns: Fire weather danger early and isolated
shower chances.

Surface dewpoints so far this afternoon have had a difficult time
dropping below 40F with RH values in most locations running in the
25 to 35 percent range. Lowest values are the usual suspects,
north-central and northeast lower Michigan, Grayling, Mio, etc.
But warm temperatures and occasionally gusty winds have pushed
some locations into elevated fire danger territory. That will be
the case into the early evening until winds relax and temps cool.

Shower chances: Surface low pressure to the north will advance
into Quebec and nudge the "cold" front southward through the CWA
through the evening and early overnight hours. Showers and perhaps
some thunderstorms are looking to develop across the western and
central U.P. over the next few hours, where aforementioned surface
based instability resides. Those will likely stay out of our

For this CWA, within the narrow axis of elevated instability
ahead the front, I still think we may yet see a narrow band of
elevated showers slip down through eastern upper MI into the tip
of the mitt over the next several hours, an idea supported by
recent high-res guidance. As such, I earlier have added lower end
shower chances for the northern parts of the CWA through the
evening. Otherwise, look for a band of thicker cloud cover to
slide down through the region through the course of the night into
Thursday morning.


.SHORT TERM...(Thursday through Friday)
Issued at 328 PM EDT Wed May 16 2018

...Dry again Rain Friday night?...

High Impact Weather Potential...Continued elevated fire danger, due
to warm temperatures, low relative humidity and dry conditions.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...The sfc high that has been producing the
relatively dry condtions and the 500 mb jet stream remaining north
of the Upper Great Lakes will continue to keep the area dry through
late Friday evening. It is beginning to look like there is a low
chance for rain to appear along M-55 as an upper low migrates north
into S Lower, by 12/Sat.

Primary Forecast Concerns...Rain chances late friday night/early
Saturday morning, are problematic. The models are bringing the 500
mb low, north out of the Ohio Valley, and into S Lower and looks
like it affects the eastern half of the state. However, the models
have very low amounts of QPF through 12z/Sat. So think that the rain
will be minimal if it falls.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 328 PM EDT Wed May 16 2018

...Limited Rain...

Extended (Saturday through Wednesday)...Saturday looks like it will
have a minimal amount of rain as the system move through the eastern
part of the state.  Then Sunday the as the next cold front and
system out of the Plains approaches, the models have gone in two
separate directions. The ECMWF now shows about .50" of qpf over the
region while the GFS dries out until Sunday, when the GFS brings in
about .25" of rain, and the ECMWF is dry. The GFS rain remains until
Tuesday morning and then both models are dry for Tuesday and the
ECMWF brings another area of rain for Wednesday. So, to say the
least this will be a low confidence forecast.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1141 PM EDT Wed May 16 2018

More VFR conditions under a few passing high and mid level clouds.
No vis restrictions expected and winds are expected to remain
fairly light through the duration.


Issued at 328 PM EDT Wed May 16 2018

Tonight through Friday...The winds and waves will remain under small
craft criteria through at least Friday morning as high pressure
remains over the region. However, Friday afternoon, the moves off to
the east, and the next low/cold front begins to move into the
region. This causes the pressure gradient to tighten up a bit,
especially near the Straits, bringing the wind gusts near small
craft criteria.




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