Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 210232

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1032 PM EDT Fri Apr 20 2018

Issued at 1026 PM EDT Fri Apr 20 2018

Based on the latest HiResW models and the HRRR, vs the satellite
and observations, tweaked the low for tonight. Hopefully have the
trends better as it was looking a little too warm in the
temperature curve. Looking at tomorrow and the next day, the
relative humidity was tweaked down as will be expecting similar RH
values as the dry air up under the thin cloud cover will mix down
again the next couple of days.


.NEAR TERM...(Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 247 PM EDT Fri Apr 20 2018

...Temperatures continue to trend up...

High impact weather potential: None.

Pattern synopsis/forecast: Large area of slowly modifying high
pressure centered directly overhead this afternoon, and looks to
remain centered across the region right through the weekend. This
will bring a continuation of very quiet weather and slowly modifying

Primary forecast concerns/challenges: Not much for sure, with sole
focus on temperature and cloud trends.

Details: Other than some increasing high clouds tonight into
Saturday morning, really not much to talk about to start the weekend
as that high pressure remains centered overhead. Biggest struggle,
if you want to call it that, remains temperature trends as airmass
continues to modify. With that said, and despite those increasing
high clouds, very dry low levels, calm winds, and snow cover
continues to favor another rapid nocturnal temperature response by
later this evening. Will continue to trend toward the colder end of
the statistical guidance spectrum, with widespread 20s expected by
sunrise Saturday. Of course, fully expect some of our traditional
colder locations to be even a few degrees colder. Late April sun
works its magic quickly Saturday morning. Lower level thermal
profiles continue to modify, and given expected great mixing to
about the H8 level, supports highs well into the 50s across interior
areas. Very weak pressure gradient definitely supports the
development of afternoon lake breezes, keeping shoreline communities
quite a bit cooler.


.SHORT TERM...(Saturday night through Monday)
Issued at 247 PM EDT Fri Apr 20 2018

...Clear to partly cloudy with warming daytime temperatures...

Primary Forecast Concern...None.

Another straight forward forecast with surface and upper level high
pressure slowly pushing off to our east leading to clear to partly
cloudy skies through the period. Low/mid level temperatures continue
to add a couple of degrees C each day so highs will continue to
warm. Looking at highs in the middle 50s to lower 60s Sunday and the
upper 50s to middle 60s Monday. Another chilly night Saturday night
with light winds, mostly clear skies and remaining snow pack
combining to lead to excellent radiational cooling conditions. Lows
ranging from the 20s to lower 30s. Lows Sunday night not a cold with
temperatures bottoming out in the upper 20s to middle 30s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Friday)
Issued at 247 PM EDT Fri Apr 20 2018

Models are consistent with upper level lows and weak surface low
pressure systems around the Great Lakes region through the extended.
Wednesday through Thursday morning appears to have the greatest
chances of the form of rain...between 0.25 and
0.50 inches, with higher amounts over the southern forecast area.
Besides that, there appears to be slight chances of showers through
the end of the period, with highs in the mid 50s to low 60s and
nighttime lows in the mid 30s.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 812 PM EDT Fri Apr 20 2018

VFR conditions to continue under a few passing high clouds. Light
wind through the period, so expect lake breezes at MBL, TVC, and
APN in the afternoon.


Issued at 247 PM EDT Fri Apr 20 2018

Light winds expected the next several days as high pressure
remains over the area. Expect the development of onshore winds
during the afternoon hours as lake breezes develop.




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