Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV

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FXUS65 KREV 121958
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
1258 PM PDT Tue Mar 12 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

Scattered, light snow showers wrap up in the Sierra this
afternoon, along with isolated rain showers into western NV.
Otherwise, expect windy conditions to amplify this afternoon.
Drier weather settles in Wednesday, when a strong northeast-east
wind event arrives to the Sierra from Wednesday through Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

This morning`s radar depicted the showers that are wrapping up along
the Sierra crest. The wet roads left behind in and around the Tahoe
Basin have quickly begun to dry as clouds clear and sunshine peeks
through. Plan on this trend continuing through today, with chances
for additional snow showers dwindling through the afternoon.

* REST OF TODAY: A Lake Wind Advisory is posted through 8 PM PDT
  tonight for Lake Tahoe and Pyramid Lake due to gusty winds today.
  Sustained breezes of 20-25 mph with gusts as high as 40 mph will
  kick up choppy lake waters through this evening. Shower activity
  will become more convective, with isolated showers moving eastward
  toward the Basin and Range. Afternoon shower chances are greatest
  for the western shores of the Tahoe Basin (50-60%) and far eastern
  Churchill County (40-60%). At lake level in the Tahoe Basin, very
  light accumulations up to an inch are possible, while showers over
  Churchill County will mostly be liquid. These showers may only
  amount to a bit of a nuisance on the windshields of travelers,
  with up to 0.10 possible under convective showers.

* WINDY WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY-FRIDAY: A High Wind Watch has been
  raised from Wednesday evening through Friday morning due to
  winds picking up out of the east. The next low pressure to reach
  our area will drop out of the Pacific NW later today, and will
  eventually set a course toward this area for Wednesday. This low
  position will migrate from over Idaho, where it becomes a closed
  low, before traversing southward across the Basin and Range. The
  center of the circulation will glide just to our east, setting
  us up for an easterly wind event. Our current snowpack will
  undergo some stressing due to winds against the prevailing
  direction causing displacement in exposed locations. Trees that
  are weak and snow-loaded will also experience stress, with some
  downed trees possible. Winds will be greatest from the Lake
  Tahoe Sierra ridges down into northern Mono County, where gusts
  could reach 100+ mph. North of Lake Tahoe and up to the Oregon
  border winds will shift from northerly to easterly with
  sustained winds up to 30 mph and gusts to 70 mph possible. For
  central and southern Mono County, gusts could reach 75-100 mph
  across the ridges, so only slightly lower than our neighbors to
  the north. The jet streak that is responsible for all the wind
  looks to set up over the region through early Saturday. Note
  that the winds will be greatest for Thursday, with some
  dampening overnight into Friday, but breezes return through
  Friday afternoon. By daybreak Saturday, the winds will relax
  back toward typical breezes. This low really tries to hang
  around the Las Vegas area for a few days, keeping us under its
  influence. Skies will be mostly clear with the exception of the
  eastern portions of Mineral and Churchill counties and far
  southern Mono County. A 10% chance for showers shows up through
  this time frame for Mono County as well.

* WEEKEND WARM-UP: Let`s all take a collective deep breath after the
  active early March weather, and mentally prepare for a taste of
  spring. We will say hello to 60s in the western Nevada valleys,
  50s in the Tahoe Basin, and hold onto our snowpack in Mono County
  with 30s in the Sierra. The ensembles are hinting at a ridge
  taking hold through early next week, but the guidance is still
  hinting at the low from mid week sticking around the Four Corners
  region until midweek next week, so some mixed confidence for
  strong warming early in the weekend.

HRICH

&&

.AVIATION...

* Isolated snow showers will remain a possibility through the
  afternoon today for KTRK/KTVL, but those chances will decrease
  into the evening. KLOL also has 15-20% chances for isolated
  showers through this evening.

* SW winds will continue to increase this afternoon, inducing LLWS
  and turbulence. Winds at FL100 will be 40-50 kts through around
  00z. Winds will also gust at valley terminals today, 25-30 kts.

* Winds will switch out of the north for Wednesday morning, and
  become easterly by tomorrow afternoon. Skies will be clear, but
  LLWS and turbulence are possible under the easterly winds.

HRICH

&&

.AVALANCHE...

* Confidence has increased regarding an east wind event from
  Wednesday evening through Friday. Main concerns will be the wind-
  loading from an opposing direction to the typical prevailing
  westerly events. This will disrupt the snowpack on eastern exposed
  slopes and trees, causing snowmelt due to sublimation,
  displacement of snowpack and stress on snow-loaded trees.

* WINDS: Ridges could experience N-NE gusts to 100+ mph, which will
  stress cornices along the ridges. For lower elevations, winds
  could reach 75+ mph, also stressing exposed north/northeastern
  slopes. Sustained winds will remain 25-35 mph from Wednesday
  through early Friday, so even when there are not gusts to contend
  with, winds will still be elevated.

* TEMPERATURES: Along the Sierra crest, highs will remain below
  freezing through Friday morning. Any melting associated with this
  event will result from sublimation and wind erosion rather than
  melting from warmth. Temperatures will rise to near or slightly
  above freezing on Friday around the Tahoe Basin peaks, which could
  further work to weaken snowpack.

  HRICH

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...High Wind Watch from Wednesday evening through Friday morning
     NVZ002.

     Lake Wind Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening NVZ002-004.

CA...High Wind Watch from Wednesday evening through Friday morning
     CAZ071>073.

     Lake Wind Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening CAZ072.

&&

$$


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