Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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FXUS64 KSJT 240541

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1241 AM CDT Sat Mar 24 2018

/06Z TAFS/

Low clouds are slower to develop so far tonight, but are still
expected to affect at least our southernmost three sites between
09Z and 12Z, but drier air just off the surface will move into our
western/northern areas, likely keeping low clouds from developing
at KSJT and KABI. Low clouds at southern sites should scatter out
by late morning. A weak cold front will move into the area
Saturday morning, turning winds from south/southwest to west, then
northwest at most sites. However, the pressure gradient
associated with the front will be weak, so winds will be less than
10 mph through most of the afternoon into the evening hours. Low
clouds are not expected to move back into the area until around
06Z tomorrow night. 20


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 613 PM CDT Fri Mar 23 2018/

/00Z TAFS/

Expect VFR across West Central Texas this evening. Stratus will
spread back north across mainly the Northwest Hill Country and
Heartland late tonight and Saturday morning. Going with MVFR/IFR
ceilings by 09-11Z at the southern terminals. For KSJT, kept MVFR
ceilings only for a few hours, from 13-15Z. Look for VFR
conditions by Saturday afternoon as low level flow veers to the
southwest. The winds will be from the south with gusts around 25
knots this evening. 21

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 308 PM CDT Fri Mar 23 2018/

(Tonight and Saturday)

Dry and warm weather will continue across the area through
Saturday, with record high temperatures possible Saturday
afternoon. Gusty south winds will diminish across most of the area
early this evening, except across the Big Country where winds
will remain gusty for much of the overnight period. Low clouds
will develop from south to north towards daybreak, affecting areas
generally south of interstate 20 through the mid to late morning
hours. Temperatures will be mild tonight, with lows in the upper
50s and lower 60s.

A weak cold front will move south to near I-20 Saturday morning
and stall, with a dryline mixing east across eastern portions of
the Concho Valley and Northern Edwards Plateau by afternoon.
Temperatures west of the dryline are expected to reach the lower
90s Saturday afternoon, with San Angelo likely to tie or just
break the standing record of 93 degrees. Elsewhere, temperatures
will be a little cooler north of the front, with highs mainly in
the mid and upper 80s across the Big Country and in the upper 80s
to around 90 over southeast sections.

(Sunday through Friday)

The mid level ridge will begin to shift off to the east on Sunday
as an upper level trough digs into the western U.S. Temperatures
will still warm well above normal with highs in the mid 80s to
lower 90s. A few isolated showers and thunderstorms will be
possible in the afternoon and evening hours along and to the east
of the dryline...or mainly across the eastern half of the CWA. A
lack of upper level forcing for ascent, however, will limit
coverage. Any thunderstorm does develop will have the potential to
become marginally severe with large hail and damaging winds being
the primary hazards.

The above mentioned upper low drops southward into the base of
the longwave trough over the western U.S. on Monday and becomes
cutoff over Arizona by Tuesday. With embedded shortwaves in the
southwesterly flow aloft ejecting out of northern Mexico and the
dryline sharpening on Monday...a better chance of strong to
possibly severe thunderstorms will develop in the afternoon and
evening hours. SPC has much of our CWA highlighted for the
possibility of severe weather during this time. Forecast soundings
indicate favorable CAPE and bulk shear profiles for large hail
and damaging winds. Thunderstorm chances will continue on Monday
night and into Tuesday as a Pacific front sweeps across the
region. The upper low finally ejects out of the western U.S. by
the middle part of next week with showers and thunderstorms
lingering across the eastern half of the area on Wednesday. A
stronger front dropping southward across the region will bring
cooler temperatures to the area by Wednesday and Thursday.


Abilene  61  91  66  84 /   5  10  20  50
San Angelo  59  92  63  88 /   5  10  30  40
Junction  62  90  61  87 /   5  20  30  30
Brownwood  61  89  63  84 /   5  20  30  40
Sweetwater  61  90  65  84 /   5   5  10  40
Ozona       60  89  61  85 /   5   5  30  30



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