Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 200450

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1150 PM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018

Issued at 1150 PM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018

Still not seeing any light snow in the Roseau to Bemidji corridor,
and this area may actually not see any. Pretty dry air continues
to feed into this area from the northeast. However, will maintain
the low pcpn chances for now. Otherwise it also has dried out west
of a Langdon to Devils Lake corridor, with the steadiest pcpn
remaining in the Red River Valley. Web cams and outside the NWS
office here in Grand Forks show steady very light snow coming
down. Accumulations still look minimal, but road surfaces are
getting slushy. If temperatures can fall enough overnight, wet
roads may still become slippery.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 231 PM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018

Impacts centered on light snow accumulations after sundown as road
surfaces cool to the freezing mark. Light snow continues to fall
across much of eastern North Dakota and is slowly moving into
Minnesota as a saturated inverted midlevel trough drifts to the
east. Impacts remain minimal with pavement temperatures above
freezing this afternoon and into the evening. As the surfaces cool
with sundown snow fall will stop melting allowing accumulation.
Given the broad weak forcing total precip amounts are expected to
range from near 0.1" in the north to a 0.2" in the south with snow
fall amounts by morning generally under an inch in the north to 1
to 2 inches from Langdon to Grand Forks to Park Rapids. A 2 to 3
inch band is possible along and south of the I94 corridor making
the morning commute a bit messy. A tight northeastern boundary of
snow no snow is expected with drier air being pulled into the
system on easterly winds.

Clouds will keep temps in the mid to upper 20s through the
overnight. Will keep a mention of light snow lingering into
Tuesday as weak upper flow allows the inverted trough to persist
across west central MN. Max temps in the low 30s where precip
lingers into the afternoon across west central MN otherwise mid to
upper 30s are expected.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 231 PM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018

Tue night through Thu...Snow system will be pushing off to the south
and east Tue night followed by high pressure and light winds for
Wed/Thu. Flow aloft will be northwest as the high remains to our
northeast. With this will come milder temperatures, above seasonal
averages with highs from the upper 30s into the 40s.

Fri into the weekend...The upper ridge axis shifts east of the
forecast area allowing moisture plume to spread northward. The
main surface low will be well to the south, but solutions all have
a warm conveyor type structure sending quite a bit of precip our
way. Ensemble percentiles still contain high Pwat values. Main
question is surface and profile temperatures which will probably
be warm enough to allow all variations of rain/mixed/snow during
the Fri night through Sun morning time frame. These timing
questions will undoubtedly take some time to resolve, leaving much
uncertainty trying to figure potential impacts. A second wave is
currently featured in the 12z GFS/ECMWF editions, most of which
could be light snow for Sun. Unsettled weather could continue into
Mon, along with decreasing temps.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1150 PM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018

Model guidance continues to keep IFR conditions over the area
throughout most of the TAF period. Not thinking it will be quite
that bad, so have gone more optimistic. Think conditions will
pretty much stay where they are at for most of tonight, then they
may actually improve a little toward morning. As snow then begins
to taper off, think ceilings and vsbys should also continue to




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