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000
FXUS63 KFGF 200848
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
348 AM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Need to monitor relative humidity values this afternoon and
  Sunday afternoon but RH values less than 25 percent in
  Minnesota forecast area. Sunday has highest chance of this (70
  percent).



&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 320 AM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

Clearing of the clouds is working south-southeast steadily early
this morning and clearing will continue to progress thru mid
morning with all areas anticipated to see the lower clouds out
of the area. There is some patchy high and mid clouds behind the
clearing. Upstream in clear area in central Saskatchewan Friday
there was no CU as airmass is drying as it clears. So will stick
with idea of limited sky cover for midday and afternoon and into
Sunday as well. NW winds will remain breezy, esp in E ND, with
winds 15-25 mph today. Drier airmass moving in will bring in dew
pts in the mid teens to low 20s, and with highs mid 40s to
around 50 look for minimum RH values of 28-35 percent across the
area. Using a NBM/Conshort blend for dew pts yield the 28-33
percent lowest RH values in NW/WC MN not quite low enough for
SPS for near critical fire weather conditions. Per MIFC need min
RH at or below 25 pct.

Sunday with warmer temps (about 10 degrees warmer) RH values do
lower into the low 20s. Winds are west and less mostly 10-15
mph. But SPS for near critical fire weather may be needed on
later shifts for Sunday.

Monday-Tuesday rain chances have lowered from 24 hours ago with
trends in the GFS/Canadian/ECMWF ensembles to have progressive
500 mb low move into southern Saskatchewan Monday with a 850 mb
trough/sfc trough extending southeast from it moving into MN.
850 mb moisture return is more focused to our east/southeast and
drier 850 mb winds will be over the area ahead of the upper low,
which will drop southeast into northern MN Mon night/Tues. Some
light rain is anticipated with this system mainly north of upper
low track which favors S Manitoba into southern parts of NW
Ontario and far northern fcst area. Amounts of rain forecast
from WPC are less as well with NBM 4.1 probs for more than 0.25
inch 10 pct in the far north fcst area to less than 5 percent
south.


Thu-Fri will see next system bringing chances for rain to the
area. Ensembles indicate GEFS stronger with system and taking a
more organized upper low and surface low northeast toward the
western Great Lakes vs other models which indicate a bit less
amplified pattern and slightly weaker system. NBM 4.1 probs for
more than 0.25 inch are 40-50 percent in west central MN to
20-30 percent northwest fcst area.



&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1132 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

MVFR conditions prevail across much of the area tonight, with
VFR CIGs expected to develop at KDVL, KFAR and KGFK. For KBJI
and KTVF, low clouds could keep MVFR ceilings in place through
around mid morning Saturday. Isolated snow showers continue to
diminish across the area. All sites should see VFR conditions by
midday Saturday as skies clear from west to east. Winds become
westerly by Saturday afternoon, with wind speeds generally in
the 10 to 15 knot range through much of the day.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Riddle
AVIATION...Lynch