Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 122359

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
659 PM CDT Mon Mar 12 2018

Issued at 656 PM CDT Mon Mar 12 2018

Short waves continue to move south along the east side of an upper
level ridge or east of the area. High pressure over central ND
shifts over the eastern ND by morning.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 244 PM CDT Mon Mar 12 2018

Fog chances tonight will again be the main issue for the period.

North to northwest flow aloft continues through the next 24 hours
as a reinforcing shortwave trough digs down the backside of the
main upper trough from Hudson Bay to the Great Lakes. The surface
high extending into central ND will slide slightly further to the
east tonight, with winds dropping off. We should radiate out quite
nicely, with temps dropping into the single digits to low teens.
With mostly clear skies and light winds, along with some recent
snowmelt, patchy fog formation will again be an issue. At this
point it seems that the western CWA will see the lightest winds
and the high resolution models are most consistant on developing
fog over this area. SREF probabilities of visibility below 1 mile
are over 50 percent in our western CWA. Many of the high
resolution models develop some fog just east of the Red River
where there has been a pattern the past few days. Put a patchy fog
mention in for those areas to start, and will reevaluate as the
evening progresses.

Tomorrow, fog should burn off by mid-day and surface winds will
shift to the south and southwest as the center of the high moves
southeast of the CWA. Highs should make the low 30s, but
increased to close to 40 for the areas in the east with trees.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 244 PM CDT Mon Mar 12 2018

A surface high drops over the region tomorrow night and will keep
winds light before westerly winds increasing Tue night into Wed as
the high sinks to our south.  This will help temperatures increase
into the upper 30s for much of the week, with an upper ridge over
MT/WY keeping the northern tier dry thorugh the end of the week.  A
wave moving across central plains Friday into the weekend has a
chance to bring some light snow or rain to the region although
models begin to vary on tracks of surface features by this
timeframe, keep confidence low at the current time.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 656 PM CDT Mon Mar 12 2018

A clear sky was across the area except with a few high thin
cirrus clouds. High clouds /VFR/ over northern SASK may spill
into the eastern zones later tonight. Problem tonight will be
fog. Keep fog in the zones...mainly the DVL lake basin and over
the far southwest zones. Another area of fog may occur east of
the Red River proper for later tonight and Tue morning. May
have MVFR/IFR conditions in fog areas.




LONG TERM...Speicher
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