524
FXUS61 KBGM 041912
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
312 PM EDT Sat May 4 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

Showers will move northward into the region tonight ahead of a
warm front to our south. Showers will end by Monday with high
pressure building into the region. However, after a brief break
Tuesday additional low pressure will bring additional showers
through the end of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

A south to southeasterly flow will allow moisture to be lifted along
a warm front to our southwest leading to the development of
widespread showers tonight. These showers should continue most of
Sunday before the primary cold front moves through Sunday
night. In terms of rainfall most locations should get around a
half inch. Localized terrain enhancements are possible north of
the NY Thruway with the rainfall allowing for some locations to
see an inch or so.

Temperatures tonight should be able to fall to around 50 even with
the clouds and showers but then struggle to rise much on Sunday.
Temperatures then look rather steady or perhaps rise slightly in the
50`s Sunday night with a weak LLJ ahead of the primary cold
front.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
245 PM Update...

A weak surface trough will slowly exit the region to the east
Monday morning. Lingering showers are expected to remain across
the Twin Tiers into the early afternoon hours, with a possible
rumble of thunder east of I-81 in NEPA. A ridge of high pressure
over the north central US will amplify Monday morning,
generating a surface high over the Great Lakes. This will slide
eastward during the day Monday, bringing NW flow and dry air
into the region. Highs on Monday will be in the upper 60s to mid
70s.

High pressure overhead Monday night will bring, mostly clear to
partly cloudy skies and very light to calm winds. This will be a
nice setup for radiational cooling, dropping temperatures into
the low to mid 40s. Currently not seeing any frost for our
growing zones, but we will have to monitor this as we get
closer.

Tuesday will be a wonderfully pleasant spring day as the ridge
and accompanying surface high moves overhead, bringing dry
weather and mostly sunny skies. Winds shift to WSW during the
afternoon, allowing some warmer temps to push into the Twin
Tiers. Highs will reach the mid to upper 70s here, with low to
mid 70s to the north.

Tuesday night will not be as cool as the night before as SW
winds advect in a warm, moist airmass accompanied by increased
cloudiness. Temps will fall into the mid 50s for most, with
upper 50s in the Wyoming Valley and upper 40s in the Tug Hill
and Catskills.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
342 AM Update...

The nice, dry weather does not stick around for long as a
positively tilted upper level trough will sit over the eastern
US, pushing shortwave after shortwave through the region during
this period.

The first shortwave will push through Wednesday, bringing in a
warm front during the morning hours and scattered rain showers
to the region. Guidance is showing very low chances( <20%) of
CAPE reaching 500 j/kg across the Twin Tiers during the
afternoon. Rain showers will continue through the afternoon,
with a slight chance of an isolated thunderstorm over NEPA.

The upper level trough will drift eastward through the end of
the week, pushing multiple shortwaves and associated rain
showers through the area Thursday through Sunday. The upper
level trough will move overhead Friday, keeping temps cool for
the weekend as a Canadian airmass slides in from the north.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Gradual lowering of ceilings to MVFR this evening with showers
developing. Then IFR expected for most of the overnight through
the end of the TAF period at all TAF sites. Southerly winds
fairly consistent around 10 knots through the TAF period.
However, occasional gusts of 15-20 knots can not be ruled out.
Marginal LLWS can not be ruled out from 06-15Z Sunday but data
shows this as a lower chance of occurring at this time.

Outlook...

Sunday afternoon through Sunday night... Showers ending with
ceilings lifting some in the afternoon then lowering again
Sunday night.

Monday...Lingering Ceiling restrictions in the morning, then
becoming VFR.

Monday Night and Tuesday...Mainly VFR expected.

Tuesday night through Thursday... Periods of showers with some
restrictions.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWG
NEAR TERM...MWG
SHORT TERM...JTC
LONG TERM...JTC
AVIATION...MWG