Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 030539
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
1239 AM EST Sat Dec 3 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
A storm system will bring increasing clouds to the area
overnight, with widespread rain showers on Saturday morning,
and increasingly gusty winds. A cold front will bring cooler
air and lake effect snow showers to the region Saturday evening.
Yet another system will bring a chance of rain Monday night
into Tuesday, with more unsettled weather for the middle of next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
630 pm update...
Updated hourly PoPs tomorrow in the early afternoon to better
time the frontal passage and its associated showers. Also
updated PoPs for the lake effect precipitation in the late
afternoon and early evening to increase chances in Northern
Oneida county.

Previous Discussion...
Mid level cloud cover continues to spread and thicken across the
region, with mostly cloudy to overcast conditions CWA-wide. Expect
cloud cover to continue to increase through the evening hours.

Meanwhile, a surface low currently over northern Minnesota will cut
up across the Upper Great Lakes, reaching James Bay by morning, as a
strong upper level shortwave trough moves into Michigan and takes on
a negative-tilt orientation. Ahead of this system, a strong low
level jet will take shape from the Ohio River Valley into the Lower
Great Lakes tonight, with models showing 925 mb winds of 60 knots
over parts of the western New York after midnight. This strong
southerly flow will transport warmer air aloft, resulting in a
strong low level inversion which will keep the strongest winds
aloft, though the odd southerly gust around 30 to 35 mph may try to
find its way to the surface overnight, mainly over the higher
terrain.

Overnight min temps will be set early, and some areas east of I-81
will manage to decouple ahead of the steadier southerly flow.
Temperatures in parts of Oneida County and valleys tucked into the
Catskills may try to work down towards the freezing mark, but the
thicker cloud cover has reduced the chances of more widespread
freezing temperatures. Precipitation also looks to struggle to
develop before around 10Z (5 AM) due to dry air just aloft. Most
HREF members show a band of simulated reflectivity moving through
the area overnight, but with no QPF, and this is further supported
by the NAM and GFS, along with model soundings. Thus, the risk of
freezing rain is looking quite limited, with perhaps a pocket or two
in the Catskills or far northern Oneida County briefly seeing precip
start as FZRA as precip finally arrives in the predawn hours. Not
expecting any glazing to develop other than maybe on exposed
surfaces, so no winter weather headlines are necessary.

Light rain will overspread the area through the morning, with a cold
front swiftly pushing through the CWA roughly between 10 AM and 2
PM. Along and behind the front, winds at the surface will pick up
(despite overall winds aloft decreasing from their peak), and will
approach the lower end of advisory criteria across the Finger Lakes
and perhaps into the Syracuse Metro area. Wind Advisories have been
posted for this area. Sustained winds may struggle to reach 30 mph,
but gusts around 45 mph will be more common. Winds will be lighter,
but notably gusty elsewhere in the area.

Saturday night, lake effect snow bands will develop, aided by the
passage of additional shortwave troughs embedded in cyclonic flow
aloft, while much of the area finds itself in the left-front quad a
jet streak aloft. Snow will be light, as mid-level moisture will be
limited, and inversion heights will be around 1 to 1.5 km AGL,
though a multilake connection early on and overall strong winds will
help with inland extent. Expect a few inches accumulation from Lake
Ontario in Oneida County, and the messy/widespread lighter Lake Erie
bands elsewhere, the heaviest of which could produce a dusting to an
inch, with widespread flurries elsewhere, perhaps grazing the
Northern Tier of PA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
230 PM Forecast...

A cold airmass will be overhead on the back side of the
departing cold front. Morning 850mb temps will be -10C to -12C
over Lake Ontario, continuing the lake effect snow showers from
the night before across areas north of the NY Thruway. Model
soundings show shallow moisture across the region but it will be
deep enough for the top portion of the moisture layer to poke
its way into the DGZ. This will allow for morning snowfall
amounts between 0.5 and 1 inch across northern Oneida Sunday
morning. High pressure will build in from the south as the
morning progresses, pushing the lake effect snow showers north
of the CWA. Highs on Sunday will be in the mid to upper 30s.

High pressure will remain over the region through the period.
Sunday night into Monday morning will be a good setup for
radiational cooling as dry air and light surface winds will be
over the region. Lows will dip into the low 20s with some valley
spots hitting the upper teens.

The center of the high will move east and be SE of the region
by Monday. This will bring SSW winds and a return to WAA,
kicking temperatures up into the low to mid 40s across the
region.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
230 PM Forecast...

Guidance is starting to become better aligned on the initial
timing of a lake cutter moving into the region on Tuesday. WAA
ahead of this cutter means that there will be a brief period of
a rain/snow mix early Tuesday morning before changing over to
all rain by daybreak.

After the initial period of rain showers on Tuesday, guidance is
back to a wide variety of solutions on how the pattern will
develop through Thursday. There is a hint that high pressure
over the Gulf of Mexico will strengthen, sending more warm air
and moisture into our region. This, combined with shortwave
pulses moving through the region brings a chance for rain
showers Tuesday night into Thursday. But timing and location of
these shortwaves is still up in the air so PoPs for this period
didn`t stray too far from NBM guidance.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

A warm front will be crossing the region early this morning with
lowering ceilings and some rain showers. MVFR conditions will be
possible, but the main story will be the strong low level wind
shear at all locations through at least late morning. There
will likely be a brief lull in shower activity late morning
until early this afternoon and then a strong cold front will
push through the area. A convective line of showers may develop
along the leading edge of this front and expect gusty winds and
possibly brief IFR conditions in the heavier showers. Winds
will shift to the west behind the front, with surface gusts in
the 25 to 30 knot range expected, possibly reaching 35 to 40
knots at SYR. Winds will gradually veer to the w/nw after 20Z
and subside to 20 kt or less tonight and as the drier and cooler
air moves in. Lake effect snow will also likely develop behind
the front with snow showers impacts parts of Central NY. SYR and
RME will have the highest chances to see any restrictions to
snow showers tonight.

Outlook...

Early Sunday morning...Lake effect snow showers may result in
restrictions in Central NY, especially at SYR and RME.

Sunday through Monday...Mainly VFR.

Tuesday and Wednesday...Restrictions possible with the next
batch of rain, along with some gusty winds.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...Wind Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 5 PM EST this
     afternoon for NYZ015>018-022-023.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPH
NEAR TERM...AJG/MPH
SHORT TERM...JTC
LONG TERM...JTC
AVIATION...MPK


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