Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 040255
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
955 PM EST Sun Mar 3 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will keep conditions dry through Monday, along
with above normal temperatures. A return to unsettled weather
starts Tuesday through the end of the work week, but
temperatures will remain well above normal.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY EVENING/...
945 PM Update:

Low clouds continue to erode in mysterious ways this evening
with low level RH and cloud simulation guidance not much help
especially beyond the next couple hours. With 850 mb flow just
coming around to the SW and with very dry air above the surface
inversion, it looks like it is just enough to open up the
temp/dwpt spreads in the boundary layer to clear out the shallow
low clouds. Given the trends, many areas in NEPA and CNY will
probably see a period of mostly clear skies, except for perhaps
from the Western Mohawk Valley into the Catskills and Poconos
where there is moist and weak easterly flow. Temperature
forecasts have been trending fine, even in areas of clearing, so
didn`t freshen them up at this time.

630 PM Update:

Clouds were eroding rapidly from south-north at this hour but
there is also still a weak moisture push from the north and a
tighter dewpoint spread. Believe the clearing will make it
further into NEPA over the next few hours and stall. Short range
models hint at this as well with best clearing west and south
taking time to progress across the CWA during the night. These
trapped low level moisture scenarios are always difficult.
Temperature and dewpoint spreads are close now and we should not
see too much further drop beneath the cloud cover in most of CNY,
but clearing could become troublesome for temperatures in NEPA.
Just made minor adjustments to all parameters with latest
guidance, but bust potential is high along the clear/cloudy
fringe.

245 PM Update:

Plenty of low level moisture has resulted in mostly cloudy skies
for the area this afternoon, except for parts of the Poconos-
Southern Catskills, where skies have been mostly sunny. This
has also kept temperatures a bit cooler than previously
forecast, with temperatures in the upper 40s to mid 50s for most
of the area, with upper 50s to lower 60s where there is more
sunshine across the Poconos-Southern Catskills.

Continued partly to mostly cloudy skies are expected tonight
with still some leftover low level moisture present. Patchy fog
will also be possible again. Temperatures will again be mild
with lows only in the upper 30s to mid 40s.

Flow will become more southeasterly as high pressure drifts
eastward. This will advect in even warmer air with temperatures
rising well into the 50s to mid 60s, and even upper 60s across
parts of the Finger Lakes Region. Onshore flow will allow for
more cloud cover for areas south of I-88/east of I-81, and
therefore the "coolest" temperatures will be across those areas.
More sunshine is expected north of I-88/west of I-81, and
therefore temperatures will be warmest across those areas.
Cannot rule out some afternoon drizzle across parts of the
Poconos-Catskills with the onshore flow, but current
expectations are that this will not be measurable, and therefore
PoPs were taken out of the forecast for now.

The first half of Monday night will likely remain dry, but as a
compact area of low pressure quickly moves northward along the
mid-Atlantic coast, some rain showers will be possible late
Monday night for Northeast PA-Catskills. The rest of the area
will likely remain dry. Temperatures are again expected to be
mild with lows in the lower to mid 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
345 PM Update...

The quick-moving compact area of low pressure mentioned above
will continue to move north along the mid-Atlantic coast Tuesday
spreading some rain across the area. There remains some
uncertainty in the track of this low and how far north and west
the rain shield will make it. The operational run of the Euro
has come slightly farther east compared to the 00Z and 06Z runs
and lines up well with the Euro and GFS ensembles. This would
lead to the far western part of the CWA, northern Finger Lakes
and Syracuse area being largely dry with a sharp cutoff in rain
stretching from southwest to northeast from near Bradford
County, PA through Central NY and into the eastern Mohawk
Valley. The operational GFS is a little farther east of the
Euro, and then there`s the Canadian and NAM which are both well
to the east with rain just skirting parts of NE PA and the
Catskills.

With there being some agreement with NE PA and the Catskills
the most likely area to see a period of rain being closer to the
low track, PoPs are greatest here on Tuesday (50-80%) as are
the rainfall totals. Sullivan County on southwest through
southern Wayne, Pike, Lackawanna and southern Luzerne Counties
could see anywhere from 0.50 to close to 1.00 inch of rain. High
temperatures Tuesday will be dependent on cloud cover and rain
as highs are expected to be in the mid and upper 40s across the
southern Catskills and parts of NE PA where the chance of rain
is the highest, while areas well to the west and up toward
Syracuse where it may wind up staying dry can reach upper 50s
and low 60s.

As this low moves out Tuesday evening, dry conditions move in
for the first part of the night. However an approaching front
from the west will bring a slight chance of showers late, mostly
around the Finger Lakes. This front is then expected to stall
out on Wednesday near the area, but there is some question as to
how far east the front will make it. Meanwhile an area of low
pressure developing near the Carolinas will once again move
northeast up through the mid-Atlantic and can increase shower
coverage over the area Wednesday night, especially for the Twin
Tiers and Catskills on south. Just like with the low on Tuesday,
there is uncertainty on the low`s track and the northwest
extent of the steadier rain potential. Highs Wednesday remain
above average in the 40s and 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
345 PM Update...

Things continue to look active in the long range. The low that
approaches the region Wednesday night looks to pass by south and
east of the CWA later Thursday or Thursday evening and shower
chances will diminish. High pressure builds in both at the
surface and aloft Friday into Friday night bringing a short
reprieve from the wet weather. However, the next system that is
expected to impact the area begins to take shape over the
central U.S. on Friday and the developing area of low pressure
looks to bring a widespread area of rain into the region this
weekend. Most guidance at this time has this low tracking toward
the Great Lakes with a secondary low forming around the mid-
Atlantic coast. Some colder air does look to funnel in on the
backside of this system as the low beings to move away, so there
is the potential for some snow to at least mix in with rain
come Sunday or Sunday night. Above average temperatures will
persist in the long range with highs largely in the 40s and low
50s, and lows from the upper 20s to mid 30s.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Trapped low level moisture relaxes a little bit overnight
especially for the southernmost terminals but generally speaking
MVFR is expected to continue for several hours. Low VFR ceilings
should then become dominant shortly before 12Z and last through
the remainder of the forecast period with the exception of KAVP
which will see VFR ceilings deteriorate to MVFR as a layer of
maritime moisture surges into the region during the afternoon.

Outlook...

Monday night...VFR ceilings. Areas of MVFR south.

Tuesday...Occasional restrictions with rain, especially at KAVP.
Possibly mainly VFR at KSYR and KRME.

Wednesday through Thursday...A chance for rain, and associated
occasional restrictions.

Friday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BJG
NEAR TERM...BJG/JAB
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...DK
AVIATION...BJG/JAB


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