Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
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830 FXUS63 KGLD 111727 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 1127 AM MDT Sat May 11 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - 20%-50% chances for showers/thunderstorms today, increasing to 50%-70% tonight and 60%-80% Sunday associated with an approaching storm system. - Average rainfall amounts today through Monday near 0.50" to 1.25", highest south of a line from Norton to Sharon Springs. Add Key Message - Unsettled pattern will continue to support chances of showers/thunderstorms Tuesday through Thursday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 315 AM MDT Sat May 11 2024 Today-tonight...an upper level low pressure area currently over northwest Arizona this morning is forecast to the four corners area today then slowly east into south central Colorado tonight. The first "wave" of moisture and precipitation chances moves in from the southwest from very late this morning through this afternoon for the entire area with the highest chances for measurable moisture generally south of a Yuma to Russell Springs line where 30%-60% pops are advertised. Another wave moves in tonight supporting 30%-70% chances for rainfall. The 00z NAM is showing a more significant mid level dry slot when compared to the GFS/ECMWF models and should it verify, we`ll have several hours of dry conditions in between the waves. The 06z NAM is a bit more aggressive on the mid level moisture. High temperatures are forecast to range from the middle 60s to around 70 in far eastern Colorado to around 80/low 80s from McCook to Norton and Hill City east. Low temperatures fall into the middle 40s to middle 50s. Sunday-Sunday night...the upper level low is forecast to move from south central Colorado in the morning northeast and over the Tri- State area during the afternoon. Rainfall chances increase into the 60%-80% range. As the low moves slowly east into central Kansas, precipitation chances slowly decrease from west to east with 40%-70% pops are currently forecast. High temperatures are forecast to be in the lower 60s to around 70. There could be cooler readings across the northwest half of the area where a more persistent wraparound rain/rain shower setup is possible, limiting any sunshine. Low temperatures fall into the lower 40s to lower 50s. On average, rainfall amounts for this two day event range from about 0.40 inches across the northwest part of the area (Yuma county) to 1.00-1.25 inches (south of a line from Norton to Sharon Springs). Monday-Monday night...currently, there is a 20%-50% chance of light showers during the day before the storm completely exits the area and short wave ridging moves in ahead of an upper level trough to our northwest. High temperatures warm back into the 70s with low temperatures in the 40s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 105 AM MDT Sat May 11 2024 For Tuesday, still forecasting a warm and potentially active day with weak ridging ahead of an advancing upper trough. With the ridging and generally westerly flow, warmer air is forecast to be over the area with 850mb temps supporting highs in the low to mid 80`s. During the afternoon and evening hours, an area of low pressure is forecast to develop over the area with a broad area of surface convergence. This will provide an initiation point for storms during the afternoon and evening hours. There could be severe weather, though the effective shear is still generally forecast to be below 30kts with the generally weak flow over the area. What could allow severe weather is MUCAPE could reach 1500 J/KG and is forecast to be uncapped. Currently the main threat would be hail around an inch, but could turn more into a heavy rain and small hail threat if shear stays closer to 20 kts and the surface convergence remains broad. Wednesday and beyond is more uncertain as guidance shows a large spread in what becomes of the upper pattern. Even with the uncertainty, it looks like Wed/Thu will be transition days similar to the past few days as it is suggested that there will be another larger wave moving east while a cut-off low trails over the Western CONUS. It`ll just be a matter of how quickly it pushes off. Currently have temps near average and some slight chance for precipitation if smaller disturbances move through. Friday will depend if the the progression of the upper pattern is slow (and allows some ridging for warmer temperatures) or is quick and turns more into a broad trough (probably near average temperatures). In either case, there will still be some small chances for precipitation as the upper flow would either be westerly or northwesterly. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1109 AM MDT Sat May 11 2024 VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the rest of the day at KGLD and KMCK, but there are showers moving in from the southwest that may lower ceilings earlier than expected; updates will be made as necessary. Winds will generally be from the south-southwest during the day, but around 0Z at KGLD winds are expected to weaken and be variable. KMCK looks to stay north of majority of the better showers and storms during the period, and the winds will be a bit stronger, becoming more southeasterly after 12Z. The showers, storms, and associated clouds will be scattered around the region and are expected to impact flight categories to at least MVFR with IMC being possible, but less likely. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. CO...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...99 LONG TERM...KAK AVIATION...CA