365
FXUS63 KGLD 121727
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1127 AM MDT Sun May 12 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Marginal Risks of severe weather and excessive rainfall for
  parts of the area this afternoon and evening.

- Another round of showers/thunderstorms Tuesday through
  Thursday with a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall
  Wednesday/Wednesday night.

- Much lower chances (20%-30%) for precipitation Friday and
  Saturday with afternoon temperatures in the upper 70s to lower
  80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 400 AM MDT Sun May 12 2024

Today-tonight...an upper level low pressure area over south
central Colorado early this morning is forecast to move into
western/southwestern Kansas by the end of the day then slowly into
central Kansas overnight.

Isolated to scattered showers early this morning east of Highway 27
should lift north and east by 18z with quite a mid level dry slot
south of the KS/NE border limiting rainfall coverage. However,
during the afternoon and early evening, coverage of showers and
thunderstorms increases for much of the area (except Yuma and Kit
Carson counties) on the backside of the upper low and where some
peaks of sun may break through, allowing for some destabilization.
We are currently in the Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms with
marginally severe hail and wind gusts to 50 mph the primary hazards.
Additionally, locations generally east of Highway 27 are in a
Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall, thanks in part to precipitable
water values of 0.80 to 1.1 inches and slow storm motions. After
midnight, shower and thunderstorm chances slowly move east with the
threat for severe weather and excessive rainfall coming to an end.

High temperatures are currently forecast to be in the upper 50s to
lower 70s. Locations under lengthier periods of clouds and
precipitation will struggle to get out of the 50s. Low temperatures
are forecast to be in the lower 40s to lower 50s.

On average, rainfall amounts ranging from one third to one inch are
anticipated.

Monday-Monday night...currently, there is a 20%-40% chance of
showers and thunderstorms east of Highway 25 due to wraparound
rainfall behind the slowly exiting storm. Dry weather returns across
the area tonight. High temperatures warm back into the lower to
upper 70s with low temperatures in the 40s. There will be breezy
northerly winds during the day, gusting in the 20 to 30 mph range.

Tuesday-Tuesday night...Much warmer temperatures in the upper 70s to
lower 80s are forecast ahead of an approaching upper level trough
from the northwest. This trough will bring 20%-40% chances for
showers and thunderstorms to the area during the afternoon and 40%-
70% chances during the night. Presently, severe weather is not
anticipated. Low temperatures are forecast to be in the middle 40s
to lower 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 130 AM MDT Sun May 12 2024

For Wednesday and Thursday, the upper pattern continues to be
forecast to be similar to this weekend where a cut-off low over the
Southwestern CONUS moves east and rejoins the main flow. The
apparent difference is that this one looks to be a little more
south which will lower the effect it has over the area. Still
forecasting temperatures to be in the 60`s and 70`s with some
shower/storm chances. Severe weather looks to be unlikely at this
time.

Friday and into the weekend remains fairly uncertain as guidance is
split between moving in another upper trough and keeping some of the
cut-off low near the area, or moving everything east and allowing
ridging to develop while the next trough begins to move into the
Northwest CONUS. Currently leaning towards the ridging solution with
warmer temperatures in the 80`s and lower chances for precipitation
simply because I haven`t seen too many trailing upper lows (though
we`ve had some recently). If the trailing low and/or another trough
moves through solutions are correct, than temperatures would be more
likely to remain in the 60`s and 70`s with more chances for
precipitation. Given the overall split/weak flow, large scale air
mass changes look to be unlikely which will keep moisture available
over the area.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1119 AM MDT Sun May 12 2024

This TAF period is very active as showers are still in the area
from yesterday and new showers and storms are moving in from the
north. Both KGLD and KMCK can expect to see MVFR to IFR
conditions until around 2-3Z Monday. These showers and storms
will lower ceilings and bring in locally heavy rain that will
reduce visibilities, but to what extent is difficult to tell. At
KGLD, until about 20Z, temporarily MVFR ceilings are expected,
but after that we look to have a "little" clearing before the
convection to the north moves in. At both sites, winds will
remain fairly light until the convection moves over, then
variable and gusty wind are expected. Starting early tomorrow
morning, northerly winds are expected to pick up with some
gusts nearing 20 kts possible at the tail end of the period.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...KAK
AVIATION...CA