Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 232344

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
744 PM EDT Fri Mar 23 2018

An upper level low pressure system will bring cooler weather
along with an increase in clouds and some flurries through the
weekend. A warming trend will start next week.


730 pm update... The current forecast is in good shape, so no
substantive changes at this time.

A long-wave trough continues to dominate at upper levels of the
atmosphere over the northeastern states this evening, with
cyclonic NW flow in place across CNY/NEPA. Although cold air
advection is in progress, which is helping to pick up some
moisture off Lake Ontario, the air mass in the lower levels is
quite dry overall. Thus, we have conflicting signals overnight
into Saturday for cloud coverage. Based on satellite trends the
last few hours, we`ll continue to advertise partly-mostly
cloudy skies. Any flurries look limited, given the dry
air/shallow moisture alluded to earlier.

Lows by daybreak will range in the 20s.

Previous discussion... Tonight:

Several shortwaves will move through the area with
continued north to northwesterly flow. This will lead to a
mostly cloudy night with some scattered flurries. The
flow off the Great Lakes and current dry airmass will be
limiting factors for anything more substantial The highest
chances for flurries are into the evening southeast of Rome in
Otsego and Delaware counties. These may spread south and west a
bit toward the Binghamton area as well. Another area of flurries
will likely develop in the Finger Lakes region later this
evening and has been modeled well from the NAM and HRRR. Low
temperatures tonight should fall into the 20`s for most
locations. Bufkit soundings do show the potential for some wind
gusts around 15 mph this evening.

Saturday and Saturday night:

An upper level low will dive southeastward through New England
during this time period with continued northerly to northwest
flow. This keeps us mostly cloudy with more scattered flurries
from time to time. Modeling does show the potential for some
scattered snow showers east of Rome later in the day and
evening. Given how dry the airmass this prospect may be
overdone. In particular the GFS has been really overdone with
this light precipitation the last couple of days.
The push of cooler air will knock high temperatures
several degrees lower than today with most spots in the 30`s.
Lows Saturday night should fall into 10`s and low 20`s. Wind
gusts around 15 mph look to continue through this time period
as well.


The upper level trough axis will shift out of our eastern
forecast area on Sunday and give way to Canadian high pressure.
This anticyclone will start off as cool but moderate on Monday as
weak ridging aloft builds into the Ohio Valley.

Quiet weather is forecast. Temperatures in the upper 30s to near
40 on Sunday will climb into the middle-40s on Monday.


High pressure will weaken early Tuesday, allowing an elongated
storm / frontal system over the Central U.S. to slide east into
the Great Lakes.

This system will very slowly slide across our forecast area
through Friday, keeping a chance for rain showers over our
region. The rain could mix with snow during the colder early
morning hours, especially over our northern and eastern

At this point we are favoring the ECMWF solution, which is
lighter on the QPF. Temperatures will peak between 45 and 50
Tuesday, then rise into the lower-50s for Wednesday and
Thursday. As the front crosses the region on Friday,
temperatures will peak between the upper-40s and lower-50s.


Generally, VFR is still expected through Saturday. Possible
exceptions are in the pre-dawn period at KITH and KBGM, where
the potential for a brief period of MVFR ceilings was included.

Surface winds will remain NW at 5-10 kt. As compared to earlier
today, winds Saturday should be less gusty.


Saturday night through Tuesday...Mainly VFR. Some MVFR ceilings
can not be ruled out Saturday night into Sunday.




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